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Coronavirus

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Jackstraw
Jackstraw

Well it got me and it's definitely not done with me.  I'll be brief but just wanted to share a frontline experience.  I began not feeling well the around the first-second week of May.  Mainly persiste

Jackstraw
Jackstraw

I'm not a social media person.  I don't tweet, twitch, tchwat, face or anything.  This board is about as social media as I'll ever get.  Hoosier can delete this post if he needs to, I understand.

A-L-E-K
A-L-E-K

your boy is fully vax'd, stronger than ever, and ready 2 post

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

New IHME run went up, unsurprisingly.  We were talking about it underdoing current deaths on the previous update.  Now it has almost 562k deaths by April 1.  The peak daily occurs just after New Year's at almost 3800 per day before going down.  Keep in mind that IHME is a smooth curve that does not account for drops in reporting due to weekends so that ~3800 number would imply some days over 4k deaths around that time.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Another serious allergic reaction in Alaska.  

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2020/12/18/3rd-alaska-health-care-worker-experiences-adverse-reaction-to-covid-19-vaccine/

This is starting to get a little strange.  Not like Alaska is a very populated state (ranks 48th in the US).  Either a coincidence or something else is going on.  I would be curious to know these people's backgrounds to see if there is any sort of commonality that could possibly predispose them to allergic reactions, whether ethnic or something else.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Btw, IHME has California with an average of about 650 deaths per day roughly 6 weeks from now.  Obviously could get even worse than that if they don't get it together quickly...

Just NY was nearly 1000 deaths per day at one point although we didn’t have the capabilities we have now. Especially now with CA hospitals full and still turning in 30000 cases per day, could get really bad soon. 

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dan11295

dan11295

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Deaths are lower today. Good for a Friday though still obviously too high

Unfortunately is likely just a data blip. Cases and hospitalizations are continuing to rise.

Numbers are going to be messy again with Christmas and New Years next two Fridays. Would expect following Tuesday/Wednesday after each to have some really bad dumps.

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dan11295

dan11295

Posted
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https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/530966-fda-investigating-allergic-reactions-to-pfizer-vaccine-reported-in-multiple

Apparently the reaction has been reported is other states besides Alaska, as well as the UK.

"Marks said the FDA was not certain what caused the reactions but indicated a chemical called polyethylene glycol, which is present in the vaccines produced by Pfizer and BioNTech as well as by Moderna “could be the culprit."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6706272/

The amount of reactions so far with the limited amount of vaccinations is certainly a bit concerning. At the very least it may scare more people away from getting it.

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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/530966-fda-investigating-allergic-reactions-to-pfizer-vaccine-reported-in-multiple

Apparently the reaction has been reported is other states besides Alaska, as well as the UK.

"Marks said the FDA was not certain what caused the reactions but indicated a chemical called polyethylene glycol, which is present in the vaccines produced by Pfizer and BioNTech as well as by Moderna “could be the culprit."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6706272/

The amount of reactions so far with the limited amount of vaccinations is certainly a bit concerning. At the very least it may scare more people away from getting it.

I imagine the FDA here and the equivalent agency in the UK will be doing allergen skin testing in all of these individuals to identify which component of the vaccine is causing the reaction.

The rate of anaphylaxis to other vaccines historically has been one per million and though it's early, based on how many doses of Pfizer's vaccine that have been distributed, it looks like the rate for this vaccine will probably be significantly higher.

So long as these vaccines are given where treatments for anaphylaxis is readily available, the risk is manageable. With time hopefully they can identify the offending component of the vaccine and use an alternative.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/530966-fda-investigating-allergic-reactions-to-pfizer-vaccine-reported-in-multiple

Apparently the reaction has been reported is other states besides Alaska, as well as the UK.

"Marks said the FDA was not certain what caused the reactions but indicated a chemical called polyethylene glycol, which is present in the vaccines produced by Pfizer and BioNTech as well as by Moderna “could be the culprit."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6706272/

The amount of reactions so far with the limited amount of vaccinations is certainly a bit concerning. At the very least it may scare more people away from getting it.

I don't know if the reactions have been widespread enough to cause people to be scared away at this point, especially when you consider which groups are currently able to get the vaccine... people who are more likely to be exposed to covid and/or have more severe outcomes (generally only healthcare workers and nursing home residents).  Where it could have more of an impact imo is with people who are younger/healthier and already more on the fence about getting the vaccine for whatever reason, but it depends on how big of an issue this becomes.  The media need to be careful with how they cover things like this.  You want to report the adverse reactions but not overdo the coverage. 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Christmas cancel in the UK due to a more contagious variant spreading around.

 

Millions forced to cancel Christmas as 'new variant' of coronavirus spreads in U.K.

 

LONDON — Millions of people in London and the U.K.'s southeast will be forced to cancel their Christmas plans after scientists said Saturday that a new coronavirusvariant was spreading more quickly.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson told a news conference that the toughest set of coronavirus restrictions — known as "Tier 4" — will be put in place from Sunday, putting regions under the strictest lockdown rules.

As a result, nonessential shops, gyms, cinemas, hairdressers and bowling alleys will be forced to close for two weeks, while people will be restricted to meeting one other person from another household in an outdoor public space.

A "bubble" policy — allowing up to three households to meet over the holiday period in parts of the country that are not under Tier 4 restrictions — will be severely curtailed and will only apply on Christmas Day, Johnson said.

He added that he "bitterly regretted" the changes, but insisted they were "necessary."

"Alas, when the facts change, you have to change your approach," he said, adding that a briefing he had on Friday "about this mutation of the virus, particularly about the speed of transmission, was not possible to ignore."

 

"The message is that this is the year to lift a glass to those who aren't there, in the knowledge that it's precisely because they're not there to celebrate Christmas with you this year that we all have a better chance that they'll be there next year," he said.

Johnson spoke out after he was advised by scientists that the new coronavirus variant was spreading more rapidly.

The chief medical officer for England, Professor Chris Whitty, said in a statement Saturday that the U.K. had informed the World Health Organization about the mutant strain.

"As announced on Monday, the U.K. has identified a new variant of Covid-19 through Public Health England's genomic surveillance," he said, adding that preliminary modeling data and rising cases in the country's southeast showed "the new strain can spread more quickly."

He added that scientists were "continuing to analyze the available data to improve our understanding."

However, he insisted that there was "no current evidence to suggest the new strain causes a higher mortality rate or that it affects vaccines and treatments although urgent work is under way to confirm this."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1251803

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StormfanaticInd

StormfanaticInd

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Christmas cancel in the UK due to a more contagious variant spreading around.

 

Millions forced to cancel Christmas as 'new variant' of coronavirus spreads in U.K.

 

LONDON — Millions of people in London and the U.K.'s southeast will be forced to cancel their Christmas plans after scientists said Saturday that a new coronavirusvariant was spreading more quickly.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson told a news conference that the toughest set of coronavirus restrictions — known as "Tier 4" — will be put in place from Sunday, putting regions under the strictest lockdown rules.

As a result, nonessential shops, gyms, cinemas, hairdressers and bowling alleys will be forced to close for two weeks, while people will be restricted to meeting one other person from another household in an outdoor public space.

A "bubble" policy — allowing up to three households to meet over the holiday period in parts of the country that are not under Tier 4 restrictions — will be severely curtailed and will only apply on Christmas Day, Johnson said.

He added that he "bitterly regretted" the changes, but insisted they were "necessary."

"Alas, when the facts change, you have to change your approach," he said, adding that a briefing he had on Friday "about this mutation of the virus, particularly about the speed of transmission, was not possible to ignore."

 

"The message is that this is the year to lift a glass to those who aren't there, in the knowledge that it's precisely because they're not there to celebrate Christmas with you this year that we all have a better chance that they'll be there next year," he said.

Johnson spoke out after he was advised by scientists that the new coronavirus variant was spreading more rapidly.

The chief medical officer for England, Professor Chris Whitty, said in a statement Saturday that the U.K. had informed the World Health Organization about the mutant strain.

"As announced on Monday, the U.K. has identified a new variant of Covid-19 through Public Health England's genomic surveillance," he said, adding that preliminary modeling data and rising cases in the country's southeast showed "the new strain can spread more quickly."

He added that scientists were "continuing to analyze the available data to improve our understanding."

However, he insisted that there was "no current evidence to suggest the new strain causes a higher mortality rate or that it affects vaccines and treatments although urgent work is under way to confirm this."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1251803

Oh great. Just what we need a more contagious coronavirus mutation 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Oh great. Just what we need a more contagious coronavirus mutation 

Yeah it's not good, but the real dagger would be if it mutates into something that screws with the vaccines.  There is a lot riding on the vaccines to get us back to normal life.

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fluoronium

fluoronium

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Posted

Unfortunately we have pretty much all of our eggs in one basket when it comes to vaccines. All but maybe 2 or 3 of the vaccine trials target the spike protein, so if there is a mutation that changes the spike protein enough to bypass immunity from the vaccines, we're in trouble. On the flip side, we are now very well equipped to make vaccines to target a new mutation. New mRNA vaccines could be developed basically overnight. I don't know how vaccine trials would work for a modified vaccine though.

Either way, the mutations that have been identified so far don't seem to suggest they will be able to get around immunity from vaccines. This is not the first time this virus has evolved into a more contagious form. It's obviously something to watch out for though, as well as the possibility of a recombination of this virus with another animal coronavirus. 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Posted

Have been trying to find out how many people in the US have received the vaccine so far.  I saw 128,000 as of yesterday, but it was mentioned as being a significant undercount since some states didn't report any info.  Let's say it's really 200-300k.  Also, not sure exactly how many serious/severe allergic reactions have occurred.  We have heard about 3 in Alaska and some other non-specific reports.  Still more to learn, but it seems quite possible the significant allergic reaction happens in something like 1 in 20,000 to 1 in 50,000 people.  If it's somewhere in that range, then it's not hard to see why it was missed in the trials as that would be at the edge or beyond the number of people who received the vaccine in trial.  

Given the circumstances, I'm not sure there was much of a choice though.  Something had to be done to get vaccines out there after a certain safety threshold was reached, without studying and trialing it to death.

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