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Someone in my niece's class has covid.  Supposedly the last day that person was at school was the 18th.  The kids in her class don't wear masks except when they are in the hallways.  The class size is small and they are relatively spaced out and have plexiglass barriers.

The 17th is when I was at my sister's/niece's house for a few hours. The sinus thing that I had started on the 21st but it seemed to pass just a couple days later.  

 

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The rate of increase in hospitalizations appears to be slowing down in Indiana, although they are still generally rising slowly.  Want to see more data to be absolutely certain that the slowdown isn't due to reporting issues around Thanksgiving (on that note, notice what appears to be a "fake" dip around Thanksgiving).  Also, even if the slowdown is real, we have to be aware of the possibility of a more dramatic increase coming later in December as a result of Thanksgiving gatherings.

 

Numbers reported on last 7 days:

11/24:  3279

11/25:  3363

11/26:  3384

11/27:  3287

11/28:  3381

11/29:  3392

11/30:  3401

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I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. 363374604_CDCStudy.thumb.JPG.39b1bd96c270c65656f00515c00dee0c.JPG

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389

 

 

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7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. 363374604_CDCStudy.thumb.JPG.39b1bd96c270c65656f00515c00dee0c.JPG

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389

 

 

Imagine if the 18-49 infection rate was happening in the 65+ age group.  We are ripping off 1-2k deaths per day even with the 65+ year olds getting infected at much lower rates than younger people.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Imagine if the 18-49 infection rate was happening in the 65+ age group.  We are ripping off 1-2k deaths per day even with the 65+ year olds getting infected at much lower rates than younger people.

Yeah, it's pretty crazy. That prevalence differential probably lowers the effective IFR by 1/3rd or maybe even a bit more. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah, it's pretty crazy. That prevalence differential probably lowers the effective IFR by 1/3rd or maybe even a bit more. 

I do wonder if that proportion of infections is the same (2x higher per 100,000 in 18-49) since October, or if that has started to shift at all.  Could be that everybody is getting sick at higher rates now.

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23 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. 363374604_CDCStudy.thumb.JPG.39b1bd96c270c65656f00515c00dee0c.JPG

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389

 

 

That's only from Feb-Sep. If you include Oct/Nov what are we looking at 80-100 million infections?

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3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

You have to wonder how many people have been infected more than once. 

This would be nice to know.  We know it can happen, and it may start happening more often as more people become farther removed from their initial infection.  It takes some work though to be sure that somebody was infected twice and not just testing positive from a remnant covid-19 infection.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This would be nice to know.  We know it can happen, and it may start happening more often as more people become farther removed from their initial infection.  It takes some work though to be sure that somebody was infected twice and not just testing positive from a remnant covid-19 infection.

Still so much we don't know about this virus

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Am at a loss as to  why we remain so ignorant about the virus transmission. Do masks help or are they a delusion. No real answers, just CDC  bafflegab, they may help we think..

We know that minks are pretty susceptible, so surely there could be tests on transmission using these test animals. Does anyone know what has been done?.

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31 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Am at a loss as to  why we remain so ignorant about the virus transmission. Do masks help or are they a delusion. No real answers, just CDC  bafflegab, they may help we think..

We know that minks are pretty susceptible, so surely there could be tests on transmission using these test animals. Does anyone know what has been done?.

Mask help a lot but are not 100 percent 

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I know most people have been focused on the Thanksgiving gatherings for causing a spike, but what about the start of holiday shopping season? People often spend longer time shopping for gifts than just going to the grocery store. I know big box stores have been implicated in spread in some areas, like El Paso recently. Also might get more foot traffic/more crowds especially if stores slack on maintaining capacity limits.

 

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1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

I know most people have been focused on the Thanksgiving gatherings for causing a spike, but what about the start of holiday shopping season? People often spend longer time shopping for gifts than just going to the grocery store. I know big box stores have been implicated in spread in some areas, like El Paso recently. Also might get more foot traffic/more crowds especially if stores slack on maintaining capacity limits.

 

Just a total disaster all the way around. Hopefully America learns from its mistakes when this is over

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