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Coronavirus


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1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

If any of you seriously believes that this is gonna stabilize after Thanksgiving, you gotta put down the crack pipe. Christmas and New Years are gonna be one hell of a combo. The way I see it -and I really don't want to be a doomer- at least a third of this country gives no fucks about Covid, at least from a "fear" stand point. The rampant infection that will occur within that segment of the population alone during the holidays well prevent this shit from stabilizing. 

Certainly the potential to get even worse with Christmas and New Years, but let's see what happens in the next month.  There may be enough people who are scared to leave home by then, especially in areas where the pandemic is really raging right now.

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I haven't dined inside a restaurant since March 16, 2020.  I even remember the date.  I honestly don't even miss it that much.  I've done plenty of takeout though.

I give you credit. One of my buddies in Ann Arbor was telling me he supports the closure of bars but goes to Grizzly Peak twice a week.

Haha it’s like people like him who frequent these establishments are helping spread it
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7 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

New cases look to be lower today than yesterday by a decent number. Not sure how much to read into that. If we (hopefully) have a muted case jump tomorrow could potentially be a sign of a start of leveling off of cases

I doubt that, most states are on the upswing in cases besides the Dakotas and maybe Wisconsin.  Also we are still waiting on a few more states to drop today, including part of california, kansas and nebraska

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40 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

New cases look to be lower today than yesterday by a decent number. Not sure how much to read into that. If we (hopefully) have a muted case jump tomorrow could potentially be a sign of a start of leveling off of cases

Positivity rates are up though.

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By using Covid Tracking Project to compare hospitalization and case metrics from a few different states. specifically PA, IL & NJ I think there is very strong evidence that we were catching ~25% of cases in April compared to now with some rough math.

In April IL had 2500 cases=5000 hospital. Now now its roughly 12,000 cases=5800 hospital

PA is equal to April Hospital peak now with ~4x as many cases. (1500 vs 6000)

NJ is equal to their April case peak ~4,000 cases, but 2,000 hospitalizations now vs 8000 in April

That would mean we would be reporting ~120,000 cases/day at April peak with today's testing. almost 40,000 of those in NY at peak.

This also implies the mortality rate hasn't dropped THAT much, maybe from ~2.0-2.5% CFR to 1.5-1.7% CFR based on today's testing

Also shows how much harder New York and New Jersey in particular were hit compared to any other state in the spring.

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Was inside my sister's house today for the first time in 8 months.  Spent 3 hours there and never took off the mask.  I actually wore 2 masks... a disposable and my other one that I wear regularly lol.  As I've mentioned before, she is not great with being careful.  She will wear a mask in public when she has to but frequently dines in at restaurants and occasionally goes to bars.

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Has to go through FDA.  I'm not sure how long the process takes but it is only 2 weeks until December, so it may be a stretch. 

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I imagine we might be coming close to testing capacity limits. Labs can only process so many tests. the Wisconsin dashboard shows approximate testing capacity and shows last week they were bumping against the limit, although it also shows capacity being expanded.

A quick google search also shows stories about wait times getting longer for testing in many states. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

After further review Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective. 

Pfizer and BioNTech say final analysis shows coronavirus vaccine is 95% effective with no safety concerns

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/health/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-safety/index.html

One thing mentioned in there is the breakdown of severe covid-19 illnesses, which was something I was wondering.  You would think that if you receive the vaccine and still develop covid-19, it would be milder, but it's not necessarily clear yet based on that data.  In the placebo group, 9/162 developed severe covid-19 (5.6%) while the vaccinated group was 1/8 (12.5%).  The vaccine appears to be great at reducing the raw numbers/burden of disease, but I guess we need more time to determine whether it makes a person less likely to become severely ill should they contract covid-19.

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