mattb65 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: At this point, it’s going to be brutal regardless of the mitigation steps. There is no putting the toothpaste back in the tube. We have never been proactive during the pandemic. We are always reactive, usually caught with our pants down. The virus is winning, and plainly, kicking our ass handily. All the zombie movies make sense now. I totally understand how something spreads so damn fast. It's very frustrating. The European surge in cases has slowed down and reversed direction in Spain, leveled off in the UK and appears to be slowing down in Italy and Germany. All clearly appear to be directly in response to policy actions implemented by their country leadership. We aren't helpless against this virus.... Except maybe we are. Hawaii has acted like Europe and responded with policy to keep things contained, we also have the benefit of a tropical climate and border control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, NEOH said: I don't want to distract from handing out buns across the entire forum... but the election celebrations were absolutely super spreaders -- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-those-biden-victory-celebrations-coronavirus-superspreader-events-health-experts-extremely-concerned-they-could-be-2020-11-09 Or is the recent spike merely a coincidence? Cases have been ramping up nationwide since the middle of October. Events like Halloween and those celebrations are just potential aggravating factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEOH said: I don't want to distract from handing out buns across the entire forum... but the election celebrations were absolutely super spreaders -- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-those-biden-victory-celebrations-coronavirus-superspreader-events-health-experts-extremely-concerned-they-could-be-2020-11-09 Or is the recent spike merely a coincidence? 95% of people have on masks. You can't say the same for pics from a Trump Rally. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, NEOH said: I don't want to distract from handing out buns across the entire forum... but the election celebrations were absolutely super spreaders -- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-those-biden-victory-celebrations-coronavirus-superspreader-events-health-experts-extremely-concerned-they-could-be-2020-11-09 Or is the recent spike merely a coincidence? It's not an instantaneous spike from the election parties. Everything contributes. The Rt is relatively consistent the last few weeks. It's just gradual and sustained exponential growth. People have a hard time process exponential growth, but that's what this is. https://www.msightly.com/covid-19/details.php?documentID=Rt by State&documentName=Rt by State&eventID=8001&category_id=COVID-19 Testing&category=COVID-19 Testing&objectID=258 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: We won't see the results of the celebration until next weekend What do you mean by results? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, NEOH said: I don't want to distract from handing out buns across the entire forum... but the election celebrations were absolutely super spreaders -- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-those-biden-victory-celebrations-coronavirus-superspreader-events-health-experts-extremely-concerned-they-could-be-2020-11-09 Or is the recent spike merely a coincidence? Lol the chicago maskless mayor celebrates then declares stay at home. At least she got in the celebration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Of course those celebrations were not helpful but you have one side hyperfocused on that and ignoring the countless other issues going on daily. Plus we didn't hear crap about those Trump rallies that were happening daily for weeks. At least with the election celebrations there were mostly masks being worn. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's not an instantaneous spike from the election parties. Everything contributes. The Rt is relatively consistent the last few weeks. It's just gradual and sustained exponential growth. People have a hard time process exponential growth, but that's what this is. https://www.msightly.com/covid-19/details.php?documentID=Rt by State&documentName=Rt by State&eventID=8001&category_id=COVID-19 Testing&category=COVID-19 Testing&objectID=258 Right now you are starting to see the after effect of Halloween weekend and it is just bad everywhere combined with an already rising caseload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, Stebo said: Right now you are starting to see the after effect of Halloween weekend and it is just bad everywhere combined with an already rising caseload. Maybe. The exponential hasn't changed much the last two weeks. It's been 1.14-1.16. Nothing is exact, but it gives a good idea of where we are headed if we don't do anything different. At current rates, we'll see 2K/deaths per day on average in about 25 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, Stebo said: Of course those celebrations were not helpful but you have one side hyperfocused on that and ignoring the countless other issues going on daily. Plus we didn't hear crap about those Trump rallies that were happening daily for weeks. At least with the election celebrations there were mostly masks being worn. I certainly get it... any large gathering is not a good thing. Just making the point that we are seeing a significant spike and there is no question the celebrations played a role. Yet this is somehow perceived as bias? It must be a lot different in Michigan than in Ohio. Rarely, if ever, do I see anyone without a mask on. I'm just not seeing this careless attitude that is floated around this thread on a daily basis. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, NEOH said: I certainly get it... any large gathering is not a good thing. Just making the point that we are seeing a significant spike and there is no question the celebrations played a role. Yet this is somehow perceived as bias? It must be a lot different in Michigan than in Ohio. Rarely, if ever, do I see anyone without a mask on. I'm just not seeing this careless attitude that is floated around this thread on a daily basis. I'd be surprised if we have actually seen much in the way of positive tests yet from any election celebrations. It's kind of on the early side. This is all just sustained exponential growth. Just look at the chart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I'd be surprised if we have actually seen much in the way of positive tests yet from any election celebrations. It's kind of on the early side. This is all just sustained exponential growth. Just look at the chart. We are well within the 2 - 14 day window at this point. I believe the average incubation is around 5 days, and 97% of people show symptoms within 11 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, NEOH said: We are well within the 2 - 14 day window at this point. I believe the average incubation is around 5 days, and 97% of people show symptoms within 11 days. Yes, but you don't get a positive test the second you get symptoms. You have to schedule the test, then wait for the results, then it gets logged. So positive cases today are probably infections from like 2 weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Ohio with another record 8071 cases! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 13 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: The problem is our captain has jumped ship. Might be better that way. The only thing he would do at this point is to say “we’re rounding the corner” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, NEOH said: We are well within the 2 - 14 day window at this point. I believe the average incubation is around 5 days, and 97% of people show symptoms within 11 days. Most of the celebrations happened on Saturday, 6 days ago. You are trying to ramrod a reason for the explosion when it literally can't be the reason. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, Inverted_Trough said: Might be better that way. The only thing he would do at this point is to say “we’re rounding the corner” Sadly tremendously bigly true 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 New York topped 5k cases for the first time yesterday since April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 It's disingenuous to blame the surge on all the Trump super spreading events just like it's disingenuous to blame the people celebrating the election last weekend. I agree with OSU, it's just widespread sustained exponential growth from innumerable small and large get togethers increasingly happening indoors due to the weather with increased natural reproductive rate potential due to the environmental conditions of lower temperatures and lower relative humidity. That's been the biology of the virus since the start and it's why scientists like Dr. Redfield and Dr. Fauci predicted this massive wave of the pandemic back in the spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Overall it is the cold air and change of seasons that driving this surge. The same thing happened in 1918 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, Stebo said: Most of the celebrations happened on Saturday, 6 days ago. You are trying to ramrod a reason for the explosion when it literally can't be the reason. Its a contributor that you left out of your original post. Not trying to push the agenda you think I am. None of us are COVID experts by any means but it absolutely can be a reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 7777 cases in Wisconsin. A record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 51 minutes ago, Stebo said: Most of the celebrations happened on Saturday, 6 days ago. You are trying to ramrod a reason for the explosion when it literally can't be the reason. It's definitely adding to the "explosion" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Michigan with 118 deaths and the United States military with 4574 cases 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, dta1984 said: It's definitely adding to the "explosion" How ATM? jfc what is wrong with people 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, dta1984 said: It's definitely adding to the "explosion" Don't make me post the exponential growth chart again. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 I called out the election celebrations as they were happening last Saturday. They were not productive, and people could've chosen to celebrate at home. Yes, it was nice that most people appeared to be wearing masks, but there were still large crowds of people that were more or less staying in the same spot (not marching). That being said, it is simply playing political games to blame the current increase on those celebrations. The incubation period of the virus is 2 days at minimum, and many times it's more like 4 or 5 days if not longer. By the time someone gets tested and gets the result, you are frequently talking 10-14 days after exposure (maybe even longer). We will continue to see increasing cases, and likely some stemming from the celebrations, but as has been mentioned, we are in continued exponential growth anyhow. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 IL just announced that there were systems issues with calculating the # of deaths during the past 24 hours and that todays # will be adjusted upward tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Looks like we are going to hit at least 165k today Edit 170k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Honestly even if the celebrations on Saturday do cause a bunch of outbreaks they might just be little blips on the already extreme background rate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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