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Unfortunately, is becoming more apparent by the day that we are heading into a third wave of this virus. The summer wave cage off of a plateau of roughly 20,000 positive cases per day and this one appears to be launching off a plateau of 40,000 cases per day.

I wouldn't be surprised if we jump up to 100,000 cases per day by November. Watching the hospitalization trends over the coming weeks well give a clue about how much of a rise in deaths we'll see in this wave.

Not sure how much this is registering with the general public at this point. The experts have been issuing stern warnings for months about their worries for fall/winter and those worries are all starting to show concerning signs of becoming reality.

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On 9/28/2020 at 3:46 PM, Hoosier said:

Would not at all be surprised if things have to be tightened up again eventually.  I think we can avoid the amount of lockdowns that we had in the winter/spring.  As evidenced by what happened in the United States and some other countries over the summer, the seasonality component is not as pronounced as the flu, but it still appears to be a factor.  With more cases comes a higher likelihood of somebody walking into a restaurant or bar or some other place where masking is difficult, thus causing more spread.  

There's a good chance this year could be one of the weakest flu seasons on record, in part thanks to Covid. I think another lockdown is quite possible but not to the extent we experienced earlier this year. I think many countries including USA are better managing the situation now compared to Mar/Apr. If anything they might close down certain restaurants, bars and other more crowded indoor spaces to limit the spread. At this point until we have a worldwide vaccine, no lockdown or restrictive measures will curb the spread. Where is the hot spot right now in the USA?

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23 hours ago, mattb65 said:

Unfortunately, is becoming more apparent by the day that we are heading into a third wave of this virus. The summer wave cage off of a plateau of roughly 20,000 positive cases per day and this one appears to be launching off a plateau of 40,000 cases per day.

I wouldn't be surprised if we jump up to 100,000 cases per day by November. Watching the hospitalization trends over the coming weeks well give a clue about how much of a rise in deaths we'll see in this wave.

Not sure how much this is registering with the general public at this point. The experts have been issuing stern warnings for months about their worries for fall/winter and those worries are all starting to show concerning signs of becoming reality.

In the short term, is is apparent that nationwide hospitalization numbers have stopped falling and are now up slightly week over week. Hospitalizations are now close to the previous low point back in June, which implies we are probably catching more cases ( I haven't read of any evidence the virus is weakening yet). What actually happens in the next few months depends on many variables, including human behavior, percentage of the population with some immunity, and potential seasonal influences (i.e. temperature, humidity, maybe body Vitamin D levels). Regarding potential seasonal effects it is important to remember that the exact mechanism behind flu seasons are not settled science, so a lot of worries about the fall/winter are based on historical patterns of infection from influenza and common cold coronaviruses.

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https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-cases-rising-among-184012739.html

COVID-19 cases rising among US children as schools reopen

After preying heavily on the elderly in the spring, the coronavirus is increasingly infecting American children and teens in a trend authorities say appears fueled by school reopenings and the resumption of sports, playdates and other activities.

Children of all ages now make up 10% of all U.S cases, up from 2% in April, the American Academy of Pediatrics reported Tuesday. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Monday that the incidence of COVID-19 in school-age children began rising in early September as many youngsters returned to their classrooms.

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On 9/29/2020 at 10:59 AM, on_wx said:

Montreal and Quebec City are on a form of lockdown for the next 28 days. I don't think a lot of us are expecting another lockdown for various economic reasons, but its surprising to see parts of Quebec are going ahead with it.

The economic reasons for not doing a shutdown are interesting and understandable. However, staying open doesn't mean businesses won't struggle which I think gets lost in the messaging.

The seasonal company I work at just had to shut down an entire division for 5 days because of covid. We were operating with covid rules in place but now we've cracked open the emergency plans. This will slow down productivity even more and obviously increases costs but if we didn't have any measures in place the entire company could have been at risk of being shut down for days instead of just one division. 

All summer Ontario and most of Canada looked across the border with confusion. Now the rest of Canada is also looking at Ontario with confusion as we've shown no appetite to slow down the virus. Quebec was with us for the most part, but as someone mentioned earlier they've peeled away and have done a limited lock down now of the two biggest cities in the province, leaving Ontario to continue down this road alone. 

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15 hours ago, Stebo said:

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-cases-rising-among-184012739.html

COVID-19 cases rising among US children as schools reopen

After preying heavily on the elderly in the spring, the coronavirus is increasingly infecting American children and teens in a trend authorities say appears fueled by school reopenings and the resumption of sports, playdates and other activities.

Children of all ages now make up 10% of all U.S cases, up from 2% in April, the American Academy of Pediatrics reported Tuesday. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Monday that the incidence of COVID-19 in school-age children began rising in early September as many youngsters returned to their classrooms.

That's interesting... or maybe it isn't. Not sure if you have kids but every Fall when they return to school they always get sick with something. The vast majority of the population will likely be "infected" at some point. Schools around here are 1/2 day virtual, and 1/2 day in the classroom. They are now looking at going to the classroom full time starting in November as there have been no reported cases in the schools since re-opening. 

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7 hours ago, NEOH said:

That's interesting... or maybe it isn't. Not sure if you have kids but every Fall when they return to school they always get sick with something. The vast majority of the population will likely be "infected" at some point. Schools around here are 1/2 day virtual, and 1/2 day in the classroom. They are now looking at going to the classroom full time starting in November as there have been no reported cases in the schools since re-opening. 

The difference being those are viruses we have known treatments and in some cases vaccines for. That matters wholly to this discussion.

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There is something curious going on with the president.  Someone he was in contact with has the virus.  He has access to rapid testing, was tested hours ago, and the results are currently undisclosed.  He announces that he is going into quarantine until the results come back.  It makes you wonder.  Either this will turn out to be nothing or potentially a very huge news story. 

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10 minutes ago, Stebo said:

"It is what it is"

Well, that is true.

How does the saying go... shocking but not surprising?   

The time lag between test and announcement was a red flag.  Makes me think that the rapid test was positive and then they followed up with a confirmatory test.

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The amount of contact the president was having in person with lots of different people and very few people wearing masks. It was a matter of time.

That this happened a month before the election is insane. I know this isn't a thread for politics but this is obviously going to be the major covid story for the coming weeks.

In terms of time frames, there is usually a 3 to 7 day incubation before symptoms develop, once/if they develop, the duration of fever is often an indication of severity. If the disease takes a bad turn it is usually 7-14 days after symptom onset when the inflammatory storm starts causing the major problems.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Well, that is true.

How does the saying go... shocking but not surprising?   

The time lag between test and announcement was a red flag.  Makes me think that the rapid test was positive and then they followed up with a confirmatory test.

Knowing that Hicks was sick for over a day and all of them still went on like nothing was happening. This is how you create a superspreader event.

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1 minute ago, mattb65 said:

The amount of contact the president was having in person with lots of different people and very few people wearing masks. It was a matter of time.

That this happened a month before the election is insane. I know this isn't a thread for politics but this is obviously going to be the major covid story for the coming weeks.

In terms of time frames, there is usually a 3 to 7 day incubation before symptoms develop, once/if they develop, the duration of fever is often an indication of severity. If the disease takes a bad turn it is usually 7-14 days after symptom onset when the inflammatory storm starts causing the major problems.

Yeah you are thinking the reverse of me of how he got it, but can you imagine how much it has spread?

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah you are thinking the reverse of me of how he got it, but can you imagine how much it has spread?

Absolutely, there are so many senior members of the adminstration who are at risk. The web of individuals potentially exposed in the Republican hierarchy could be pretty vast.

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5 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

The amount of contact the president was having in person with lots of different people and very few people wearing masks. It was a matter of time.

That this happened a month before the election is insane. I know this isn't a thread for politics but this is obviously going to be the major covid story for the coming weeks.

In terms of time frames, there is usually a 3 to 7 day incubation before symptoms develop, once/if they develop, the duration of fever is often an indication of severity. If the disease takes a bad turn it is usually 7-14 days after symptom onset when the inflammatory storm starts causing the major problems.

For sure

And it is a good time for a reminder to try to stay as news based as possible in the coming days, without inserting political opinions.

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2 hours ago, NEOH said:

I didn't look into this super deeply, but if you're comparing people who get pneumonia from a rhinovirus vs people who get pneumonia from influenza , there's probably an underlying reason why more of the rhinovirus patients end up dying (i.e, they're much weaker). In general, I doubt that common cold viruses can kill anywhere near as many old people as Covid can. 

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While I wouldn't call it a dire situation, we are trending the wrong way in Indiana.  Testing has plateaued or even dipped a little, but cases are up, which means the positivity rate has gone up.  Hospitalizations are also up around 20% in the past 2 weeks.  The context of it only being early October is more concerning.

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