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46 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Japanese have low prevalence of heart disease, diabetes and obesity in general. As someone in the science field, do you really think that's apples to apples?

 

That would allude to lower death rates, not lower transmission rates. The median age in Japan is 47.3, vs. U.S.A’s 38.2.  That’s a big difference. 

Also:

Japan has 149 cases per million, total.

USA has 8,571 cases per million, total. 
 

 

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3 hours ago, RobertSul said:

That would allude to lower death rates, not lower transmission rates. The median age in Japan is 47.3, vs. U.S.A’s 38.2.  That’s a big difference. 

Also:

Japan has 149 cases per million, total.

USA has 8,571 cases per million, total. 
 

 

Are you sure compromised immune systems aren't more prone to catching the disease initially? Symptoms like coughing would probably spread the disease like wildfire compared to someome asymptomatic.

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4 hours ago, Jonger said:

Are you sure compromised immune systems aren't more prone to catching the disease initially? Symptoms like coughing would probably spread the disease like wildfire compared to someome asymptomatic.

You mean like older people, which Japan has an abundance of? 

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15 hours ago, Jonger said:

As testing becomes quicker and easier, you're obviously going to see more cases.

I would strictly look at positive test rates and deaths. Is there really any usable data from simply looking at cases? 

Yes, the exponential increase in number of cases does not match the increased rate of testing.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Seems like most states in the region have started to tick up.  Obviously not nearly like what's going on in the southern/western states.  Ohio is probably the biggest concern regionally right now.  

They were the ones who opened up the most the quickest in the region. Now some people are complacent as if the virus isn't a thing.

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21 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Things will peak mid-late July in terms of capacity and chaos. Sadly people who need the beds will not get them(heart attack, car crash ete, elective surgeries are already toast). I think all young men under the age of 40 should not be treated by hospitals. That would free up plenty of room.

So if I (34) were to be in a car accident, or were to catch COVID-19 and be one of the unfortunate few in my age group who needs hospital treatment, they should turn me away? Gee. thanks.

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On 7/2/2020 at 5:36 PM, RogueWaves said:

Agree, total "positives" means little since we've been aware since day 1 many carriers weren't sick, or sick enough, to warrant a test. Personally, I've always focused on the fatalities (against a typical flu season and other historical outbreaks) more than cases. Obviously, the more that test (+) and don't succumb or even fall seriously ill, the lower that over all death rate gets. Thru selective/limited testing the numbers looked horrible scary ofc.

It will be very interesting to see where this ends up when all is said and done (if someone ever publishes an update of this):

 

COVID-19 vs other viruses.PNG

The problem with only looking at deaths to estimate the true infection rate is it ignores changes in behavior.  In general older people are being more cautious.  It's mainly 20 and 30 somethings going to bars and parties.  These are the main super-spreading type events.  In Lansing close to 100 cases were linked to a single freaking bar!!!  While the initial infected are mostly mild cases involving young people, when the amount of community spread reaches a certain threshold, older people will be involved again and death rates will climb again.  Many vulnerable people still have to work and shop and they will come in contact with careless spreaders.

Also not that not all non-deadly cases are "mild".  Even people in their 20s who never required hospitalization say it was the worst illness in their life and nobody even knows how long certain problems last.  Many people still have symptoms after 2 months!!!  Even people who were never hospitalized!!!  Many people never know they had it, but others become ill for a protracted period of time.  It isn't a brief illness like the flu.

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One of my cousins (I think it's first cousin twice removed if I have the relationship right) has the virus.  Works at a casino and had been at a bar so odds are he got it at one of those places.  Has a fever but not doing bad overall, at least so far.

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On 7/3/2020 at 4:38 PM, Angrysummons said:

Things will peak mid-late July in terms of capacity and chaos. Sadly people who need the beds will not get them(heart attack, car crash ete, elective surgeries are already toast). I think all young men under the age of 40 should not be treated by hospitals. That would free up plenty of room.

That's almost as ridiculous as the lieutenant Gov. in Texas saying Grandma should sacrifice herself for young people. 

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Guest ovweather

Went grocery shopping this evening (with a mask) and pass in an aisle this obese older man who wasn’t wearing a mask. Right after passing him he begins coughing quite loudly without covering his mouth. Obviously this guy doesn’t care much about his health, so how can we expect those who don’t care about their own health to care in the least about the health of others? That’s a serious problem this pandemic has exposed in the human race. Selfishness accomplishes nothing positive and can only hurt the less-selfish of us.

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Today's fatality count is going to look worse than it otherwise would have since we are not only coming off of a weekend, but a holiday as well.

As a country, we have been below 1k per day (still ridiculously high) for nearly a month now.  Hopefully that does not begin to trend upwards as well.

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1 hour ago, RyanDe680 said:

Both.

7/7

Available beds:  12,925

Available ICU beds:  1,148

Total bed count:  54,744

They may be floating the available beds by cancelling elective procedures but that'll only work for so long with a curve that looks like this. This is Texas. They have been doubling hospitalizations every 12 days since June 11th. If that pace continues they'll be at 16,000 hospitalizations by July 16th. That pace will definitely overwhelm local capacity quickly. Hopefully with the measures put in place last week, that doubling rate will slow significantly so that some of the current hospitalizations can start getting discharged to flatten out the hospitalization curve.

Screenshot_20200707-125830_Chrome.thumb.jpg.10655cd536a9a37f4358208cd2d183bf.jpg

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4 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol guess we post here, but PA posted its highest number since early may.

Arizona, Texas, Florida and California still aren't putting up numbers worthy of a freak-out.

This thing is either weaker or doctors know how to handle it. Great news for opening up the country before the end of the summer.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Today's fatality count is going to look worse than it otherwise would have since we are not only coming off of a weekend, but a holiday as well.

Yeah, today's excess is basically the significant decline we saw in Friday due to July 3rd holiday carried forward to today. On Friday there were 247 fewer deaths than the previous Friday.

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The thing I want to know is what percentage of people have the symptoms for many weeks/months.  You hear these stories about people who can't seem to shake it, but it's hard to get a sense of how common that is... like are we talking 5%, 10%, 20%?  

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1 minute ago, Jonger said:

 

Arizona, Texas, Florida and California still aren't putting up numbers worthy of a freak-out.

This thing is either weaker or doctors know how to handle it. Great news for opening up the country before the end of the summer.

Not sure how you can say that when looking at the hospitalization curve I just posted from Texas. Their deaths have also starting to rise steeply, same with AZ and FL

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1 hour ago, mattb65 said:

Yeah, today's excess is basically the significant decline we saw in Friday due to July 3rd holiday carried forward to today. On Friday there were 247 fewer deaths than the previous Friday.

Flirting with 1000 today.  Hopefully just a data dump and won't start seeing more days like it in the coming weeks.

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The thing I want to know is what percentage of people have the symptoms for many weeks/months.  You hear these stories about people who can't seem to shake it, but it's hard to get a sense of how common that is... like are we talking 5%, 10%, 20%?  

I wonder how many of these people also suffer from seasonal allergies which its symptoms can be mistaken for Covid symptoms after one’s body has defeated the virus (you test negative and have the anti-bodies)?

Part of me just wonders if these lingering weird symptoms some experience aren’t just mental aberrations? Maybe a form of PTSD? After all, the paranoia and fear about the Covid virus has no comparisons. I read an article earlier today about a guy who said he’s been left with bad coordination after having had Covid. Hmmm...

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Indiana has been running less tests per day lately, and the positive percentage has been creeping up.  I mentioned that the state was testing all nursing home employees in June, so perhaps that explains the recent drop in number of tests being performed.

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