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Coronavirus

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Support. Fluids and ventilation. 

Those options are running out

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18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Exactly.  Moderate symptoms from COVID are pretty scary... especially when medical care may or may not be available.  And a sizable percentage of young, healthy people are getting moderate or worse symptoms... and even pneumonia.  Underestimating the risk to younger people is not helping us.  And even if it's statistically true (as with almost all diseases), it's a counter productive message.

I’m just reading the last few pages and this is spot on. We all know the numbers, but messaging here matters a lot too. It’s the counterproductive use of the statistics that allows places like Florida to slow walk suppression efforts. We see it in the image below, taken yesterday:

The overwhelming majority of those people will be just fine, but that doesn’t mean they can’t become carriers. How many of those people are going to go back to their local community or state of residence and seed more outbreaks? They’re fine, they’re communities won’t be. Fortunately, after this image got a lot of attention local officials shut things down:

But the damage is done. We’re not going to defeat this virus with minimal losses with this attitude. It’s not about the (young and healthy) individual here, it’s about protecting the broader population of which there are tens of millions of all age groups with underlying health issues.

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Just now, kdxken said:

New numbers for Massachusetts:

Massachusetts has recorded four additional deaths linked to COVID-19 and reported 698 new positive cases, according to health officials.

The Bay State’s total number of fatal cases is now at 48, and the number of positive cases climbed to 4,955.

According to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, two of the fatal cases did not have a known preexisting condition.

Those cases included a man in his 80s from Essex County, and a woman in her 70s from Norfolk County.

 

The two other fatal cases that did have preexisting conditions according to DPH included a woman in her 90s from Middlesex County, and a woman in her 80s from Berkshire County.

So obviously this is very crude data, but that translates to a fatality rate of less than 1%. And from my own experience, most in mass aren’t receiving a test unless they have symptoms or are high risk.

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Statistically - there are a couple of issues.  One are the people being tested randomly selected from the entire population?  Also, the statistics are constantly changing as more people are being infected - so it is something of a moving target.  It is not like how many people have blue eyes or brown eyes which does not have a temporal issue.  There are ways to analyze the data, but I don't believe we have enough data to be able to adequately extrapolate it.  Antigens would be huge in this extrapolation.

My question on the Iceland data, 50% of the people who tested positive had no symptoms - did anyone follow up and see how many people developed symptoms over time?  Obviously having asymptomatic people walking around spreading the virus is a gigantic issue.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

New numbers for Massachusetts:

Massachusetts has recorded four additional deaths linked to COVID-19 and reported 698 new positive cases, according to health officials.

The Bay State’s total number of fatal cases is now at 48, and the number of positive cases climbed to 4,955.

According to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, two of the fatal cases did not have a known preexisting condition.

Those cases included a man in his 80s from Essex County, and a woman in her 70s from Norfolk County.

 

The two other fatal cases that did have preexisting conditions according to DPH included a woman in her 90s from Middlesex County, and a woman in her 80s from Berkshire County.

That’s an improvement from yesterday’s numbers.  Weren’t they 10 deaths and over 1000 positive?

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5 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

What is conventional treatment of covid-19?

Pretty much keep you Hydrated and help you breathe if need be.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

That’s an improvement from yesterday’s numbers.  Weren’t they 10 deaths and over 1000 positive?

Yes, Hopefully it's a trend!

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I understand Iceland tested an entire country and SK tested hundreds of thousands.  There has to be enough cumulative data for the super smart to figure out how many theoretically are infected based on data. Falcons 21 Patriots 3 at the half

I don't think Iceland has tested its entire population.  Just a much higher percentage than anywhere else.  And that has included a lot of asymptomatic people, which in my opinion is the right approach.

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Young healthy people are dying, but they're very rare cases. I know that no one is completely immune, but the statistics show that most young people that die from this also have underlying health conditions. And this is a point that Cuomo keeps hitting during his press conferences. The overwhelming majority of people that end up dying are people that have underlying health conditions. This virus is great at attacking people with weaker immune systems and weaker lungs. So I didn't get anything wrong as Weathafella claimed. I was just making the point that young healthy people need to be very careful  about spreading it to people that have underlying health conditions. That's why this social distancing is so important. So many people have this and don't even realize it, so everyone needs to be very careful.

 

Let me also say that everyone should exercise, get plenty of sleep and eat healthy (most of the time for eating healthy, I know you have to cheat some). These things boost the immune system, which reduces the chance of catching it and makes it more likely to be a mild case if you do catch it. They also reduce the chance of developing underlying health conditions like high blood pressure, diabetes and heart disease. Too many people don't take their health seriously and really let themselves get into bad shape, which not only makes Coronavirus worse but also leads to many other diseases. It's very odd how some people seem to take offense when a point like this is made, but it's completely true. You won't find one health expert that disagrees with this.

Less frequent but by no means very rare.  Many of us know of cases in people we know!

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17 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

From Reddit

March 23, 2020
 
To all medical professionals around the world:
 
My name is Dr. Zev Zelenko and I practice medicine in Monroe, NY. For the last 16 years, I have cared for approximately 75% of the adult population of Kiryas Joel, which is a very close knit community of approximately 35,000 people in which the infection spread rapidly and unchecked prior to the imposition of social distancing.
 
As of today my team has tested approximately 200 people from this community for Covid-19, and 65% of the results have been positive. If extrapolated to the entire community, that means more than 20,000 people are infected at the present time. Of this group, I estimate that there are 1500 patients who are in the high-risk category (i.e. >60, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).
 
Given the urgency of the situation, I developed the following treatment protocol in the pre-hospital setting and have seen only positive results:
 
1.  Any patient with shortness of breath regardless of age is treated.
2.  Any patient in the high-risk category even with just mild symptoms is treated.
3.  Young, healthy and low risk patients even with symptoms are not treated (unless their circumstances change and they fall into category 1 or 2).
 
My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:
 
1.  Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
2.  Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days
3.  Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days
 
The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.
 
Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen.
 
Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.
 
In sum, my urgent recommendation is to initiate treatment in the outpatient setting as soon as possible in accordance with the above. Based on my direct experience, it prevents acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), prevents the need for hospitalization and saves lives.
 
With much respect,
 
Dr. Zev Zelenko

The good doc looks like a Trump supporter fwiw, if you look around on Google.

I am really interested to hear results from the ongoing trials in NY, MA, etc.  One, what (if anything) conclusively works as a treatment and two, is there a tipping point in the severity of illness where treatment is not really effective.

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That’s an improvement from yesterday’s numbers.  Weren’t they 10 deaths and over 1000 positive?

Definitely a pleasant surprise.  I fear it’s a blip but subsequent days will tell us. 

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53 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Unfortunately the early reporting on this virus was that it was an older person's illness and that you didn't have much to worry about if you're younger.  I think word is getting around more now that the pre-existing conditions piece is a big factor in this. 

Even at the beginning, pre-existing conditions was said to be a risk factor.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

The good doc looks like a Trump supporter fwiw, if you look around on Google.

I am really interested to hear results from the ongoing trials in NY, MA, etc.  One, what (if anything) conclusively works as a treatment and two, is there a tipping point in the severity of illness where treatment is not really effective.

It looks like Reddit has removed the post.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

The good doc looks like a Trump supporter fwiw, if you look around on Google.

I am really interested to hear results from the ongoing trials in NY, MA, etc.  One, what (if anything) conclusively works as a treatment and two, is there a tipping point in the severity of illness where treatment is not really effective.

A lot of lefty docs are treating people similarly.

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Need more of this and soon.

While it might be impossible to figure out who is going to become sick with novel coronavirus, some public health experts believe the more critical question may be who has already been exposed.

In Telluride, Colorado, last week, one biotech company put that idea to work.

United Biomedical is now working with San Miguel County, which includes the famous Rocky Mountain ski destination, to test all 8,000 residents for COVID-19 antibodies -- making it the first community in the country to do widespread antibody testing. The idea, officials said, is to learn from an individual’s blood whether there is evidence the person has already been exposed. With that information, officials can then make decisions about whether quarantines and restrictions would need to continue and whether they need to be as widespread as they are in states and cities across the country right now.

"The goal of this is to show you can predictably get an entire county back to its new normal as quickly as possible by using testing," said Lou Reese, co-CEO of United Biomedical and its COVAXX subsidiary.

Reese stressed that, if successful, the testing program could be expanded, "starting at the hot-spot areas right now to solve this problem, stop the panic and get people to their lives and back to work."

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The good doc looks like a Trump supporter fwiw, if you look around on Google.
I am really interested to hear results from the ongoing trials in NY, MA, etc.  One, what (if anything) conclusively works as a treatment and two, is there a tipping point in the severity of illness where treatment is not really effective.
Who cares if he likes Trump. Wth
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Need more of this and soon.
While it might be impossible to figure out who is going to become sick with novel coronavirus, some public health experts believe the more critical question may be who has already been exposed.
In Telluride, Colorado, last week, one biotech company put that idea to work.
United Biomedical is now working with San Miguel County, which includes the famous Rocky Mountain ski destination, to test all 8,000 residents for COVID-19 antibodies -- making it the first community in the country to do widespread antibody testing. The idea, officials said, is to learn from an individual’s blood whether there is evidence the person has already been exposed. With that information, officials can then make decisions about whether quarantines and restrictions would need to continue and whether they need to be as widespread as they are in states and cities across the country right now.
"The goal of this is to show you can predictably get an entire county back to its new normal as quickly as possible by using testing," said Lou Reese, co-CEO of United Biomedical and its COVAXX subsidiary.
Reese stressed that, if successful, the testing program could be expanded, "starting at the hot-spot areas right now to solve this problem, stop the panic and get people to their lives and back to work."
I posted this the other day. We have friends that live in telluride and she was explaining this. Some rich guy paying for all of it. Whatever it takes..

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11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yeah one hope has been that actual cases are much higher than detected and therefore the majority of cases are mild.  We saw that with the statistics from China where a similar percentage (~40-50% had no or very minor symptoms).  But China also tested widely and reported a relatively high hospitalization rate.  Italy is also testing like crazy and they are experiencing extremely high death rates (>10%) and very high rates of hospitalization, even among younger people.  Similar stats are being reported in France and Spain.

So it seems like, yes, most cases are mild and it skews heavily towards the older and vulnerable populations.  But at the same time, hospitalization rates are also very high, and this includes (percentage wise) cases in younger people as well.  The virus attacks the lungs.  So in the small percentage of people who don't fight it off easily, a lot of them need respiratory support.  This has been observed since January and was the reason why people paying attention called for an increase in ventilators and training even back then.

I know there was that major study from Italy that showed that 99% of deaths were people with underlying health conditions. There are exceptions of course, but It really does seem to be mainly about underlying health conditions with this virus. The major study they did in China showed the death rate for people with heart disease was 10.5% .... diabetes 7.3% .... chronic respiratory disease 6.3% .... high blood pressure 6% .... cancer 5.6% ...... but no underlying health conditions was just 0.9%. This is why I don't think people should try to scare people that are completely healthy. I agree that a cavalier attitude is bad and am annoyed at the people that don't engage in social distancing, but I also don't think people are are healthy and very low risk of having severe complications should be terrified. Caution is advised but we don't want people so stressed out that their immune systems are being weakened.

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Less frequent but by no means very rare.  Many of us know of cases in people we know!

Oh sure young people get it. Almost positive my 26 year old daughter went through it. Nothing to sneeze at.

Here are the results from the only test done. I guess it's how you define rare.

The study identified very few deaths among people under 40. More than 12,000 people in that age group were infected, but only 26 died. It is unclear if those people had other medical conditions, such as asthma or cancer, that may have made them more vulnerable.https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-11/covid-19-risk-healthy-young-person

 

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13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah. That whole posts does give me a too good to be true type vibe though. 

Yeah there's been a quite a few of those and when you dig deeper, not so much.

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I’m guessing there are a ton of false negative tests.  First of all, if the swab doesn’t get a good sample which is probably common considering the test is mildly invasive, then you get a false negative.  The antibody test once usable will be more accurate and easier.  But with early COVID-19 it may come back negative.   We really need a vaccine and I’m hoping with all the brilliant people out there it happens by the fall because I fear a shit show starting in October 2020 notwithstanding what is happening now and over the coming months.

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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m guessing there are a ton of false negative tests.  First of all, if the swab doesn’t get a good sample which is probably common considering the test is mildly invasive, then you get a false negative.  The antibody test once usable will be more accurate and easier.  But with early COVID-19 it may come back negative.   We really need a vaccine and I’m hoping with all the brilliant people out there it happens by the fall because I fear a shit show starting in October 2020 notwithstanding what is happening now and over the coming months.

Would a vaccine by fall be a world record?  Would it be possible to widely distribute and administer any vaccine by then?

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

I know there was that major study from Italy that showed that 99% of deaths were people with underlying health conditions. There are exceptions of course, but It really does seem to be mainly about underlying health conditions with this virus. The major study they did in China showed the death rate for people with heart disease was 10.5% .... diabetes 7.3% .... chronic respiratory disease 6.3% .... high blood pressure 6% .... cancer 5.6% ...... but no underlying health conditions was just 0.9%. This is why I don't think people should try to scare people that are completely healthy. I agree that a cavalier attitude is bad and am annoyed at the people that don't engage in social distancing, but I also don't think people are are healthy and very low risk of having severe complications should be terrified. Caution is advised but we don't want people so stressed out that their immune systems are being weakened.

Nobody said terrified.  But 1/1000 risk of death is pretty high.  And the risk of hospitalization and other complications is much higher.  If people were a little more frightened they would be a little bit more careful.  And that would help everyone tremendously. 

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