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moneypitmike

Coronavirus

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50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like Rockefeller Univ is conducting research into human genetic vulnerability to the virus. That may explain why some healthy, young individuals show a severe response to it and others are mild or asymptomatic.

https://www.genomeweb.com/infectious-disease/rockefeller-led-team-launches-initiative-study-covid-19-genetic-vulnerability#.Xn45e3J7lPY

As I posted before, there were a few genes founds with SARS-1 that either made you more or less susceptible to the virus...

The OAS1 gene codes for a protein that is induced by interferon. The OAS1 protein activates an enzyme that degrades viral RNA and inhibits the replication of the virus.

The MBL2 gene codes for mannose-binding lectin 2, which is part of the immune system that recognizes carbohydrate signatures from foreign pathogens.

The CCL2 gene codes for an inflammatory cytokine involved in the recruitment of monocytes and other immune system cells needed at the site of an inflammatory response.

As for the actual ACE2 receptors they bind to...there was no correlation with those...

Genetic variants associated with susceptibility to  SARS coronavirus:

Clearing up some speculative mis-information from other genetics websites:
The ACE2 gene codes for the cell receptor that the coronavirus uses to gain access to the cell.  This is true for both SARS coronavirus and COVID19.  Studies on people who were exposed to SARS and didn’t get the virus as well as studies on people who did get the virus showed that genetic variants in the ACE2 gene did NOT impact SARS susceptibility.[ref][ref]  Additionally, the common ACE gene variants have also been shown not to impact susceptibility to SARS coronavirus.

 

We source: https://www.geneticlifehacks.com/viral-immunity-coronavirus-flu-and-more/

 

It'd be interesting to know which ethnicitis have higher tendencies for the variants of these genes.

they should be spending some serious time and energy in Germany where there are 50,000 cases and 321 deaths.

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19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

5 more years :axe:

He gets paid through 2035.

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I'm genuinely curious. Do people think that we, as a country, are going to fare better than a nation like Italy with this? If so, why? Is it because we took better precautions very early on? Because I personally don't think that we have. Or maybe because of a belief that we have better healthcare? Italy has the #2 best healthcare in the world. The us is 37th.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

He gets paid through 2035.

You could say he Maddoff with a lot of money 

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1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

I'm genuinely curious. Do people think that we, as a country, are going to fare better than a nation like Italy with this? If so, why? Is it because we took better precautions very early on? Because I personally don't think that we have. Or maybe because of a belief that we have better healthcare? Italy has the #2 best healthcare in the world. The us is 37th.

We already have 10 k more cases than them and 8 k less deaths. We are a huge country with tremendous resources to handle overflow. Look at per capita critical sickness death. 

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2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I'm genuinely curious. Do people think that we, as a country, are going to fare better than a nation like Italy with this? If so, why? Is it because we took better precautions very early on? Because I personally don't think that we have. Or maybe because of a belief that we have better healthcare? Italy has the #2 best healthcare in the world. The us is 37th.

We have the highest number of critical care beds per capita....so that will help offset some of our other shortcomings. Italy was like 1/3rd of the US, though still ahead of most countries. Italy also has a median age of 45 while the United States is 38.

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8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I'm genuinely curious. Do people think that we, as a country, are going to fare better than a nation like Italy with this? If so, why? Is it because we took better precautions very early on? Because I personally don't think that we have. Or maybe because of a belief that we have better healthcare? Italy has the #2 best healthcare in the world. The us is 37th.

Might be a supply issue, limited Dr, Nurses and equipment, they could have the best healthcare but they got overwhelmed.  I believe the US might have a better supply chain due to the larger economy/size etc. IMHO

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For Ginx.

Surf’s up in Narragansett: Riders are social distancing themselves on the waves.

NARRAGANSETT, R.I. — Peter Pan is giddy.

Business at his Narragansett Surf & Skate Shop is booming, the sky is clearing, the waves are building, and he’s going surfing.

The surfing legend’s real name is Peter Panagiotis, but nobody has called him that since a surfing announcer couldn’t pronounce his Greek last name at a 1967 tournament.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/27/sports/surfs-is-narragansett-riders-are-social-distancing-themselves-waves/

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I've been following the head of Surgery @ Columbia hospital in NY.  I guess he send these out daily to the staff, there is the 3/26 and 3/27 emails.   God bless all healthcare workers, keep them safe.  

 

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4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

For Ginx.

Surf’s up in Narragansett: Riders are social distancing themselves on the waves.

NARRAGANSETT, R.I. — Peter Pan is giddy.

Business at his Narragansett Surf & Skate Shop is booming, the sky is clearing, the waves are building, and he’s going surfing.

The surfing legend’s real name is Peter Panagiotis, but nobody has called him that since a surfing announcer couldn’t pronounce his Greek last name at a 1967 tournament.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/27/sports/surfs-is-narragansett-riders-are-social-distancing-themselves-waves/

I have known Peter since like 1970. A legend, surfing is always a great way to socialize from a safe distance plus doubt virus can live in cold salt water.

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12 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Beaches packed in Gloucester. So many people out. 

As the weather warms and we don’t turn this downward by whatever means, we will oscillate with varying spikes throughout the country. We are too spoiled and too cavalier to listen for too long. Unless humidity kills the virus...my opinion...is that the flattening of the curve will be very long. Might look more like a trapezoid than anything else. 

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30 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I'm genuinely curious. Do people think that we, as a country, are going to fare better than a nation like Italy with this? If so, why? Is it because we took better precautions very early on? Because I personally don't think that we have. Or maybe because of a belief that we have better healthcare? Italy has the #2 best healthcare in the world. The us is 37th.

I think only a very few people think that we will fare better than Italy. And none of them are health experts . We are a month behind them . 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think only a very few people think that we will fare better than Italy. And none of them are health experts . We are a month behind them . 

Total deaths will be higher than Italy, but the curve will look different.

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think only a very few people think that we will fare better than Italy. And none of them are health experts . We are a month behind them . 

Link?

We are only about 11 days behind Italy and generally on track to repeat what is unfortunately happening there," Asaf Bitton, an assistant professor of medicine at Harvard University, wrote on Friday.

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Good read on fatality rates.

Also, because of the way countries monitor pandemics like the coronavirus, he says, the case fatality rate tends to decrease over time. The reason: When a new disease first shows up, testing usually focuses on severely ill people who are at high risk of dying. Later on, testing is more likely to include people with milder illness who are less likely to die.

That's what happened with West Nile virus, which appeared in the U.S. in 1999. At first, when scientists only knew of about a few dozen cases, it appeared the mortality rate was higher than 10%. But wider testing eventually found hundreds of thousands of people who'd been infected but never got sick enough to notice. Today, more than 3 million Americans have been infected and studies show that fewer than 1% become seriously ill.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

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17 positive tests and 7 deaths now at that rehab in Burlington VT (90 residents in the facility).

https://vtdigger.org/2020/03/27/family-asks-could-burlington-health-rehab-have-done-more/

Quote

 

Since LaBombard’s death, the disease has swept through the Pearl Street facility, which serves 90 residents. She was the first of 17 to test positive for the virus, and one of seven who die from it. Ten staff members have also tested positive. 

Burlington Health & Rehab has become a hotbed of the state’s epidemic, where 158 people have contracted the virus, and nine have died. 

 

 

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I mean NY state is already at 25 deaths per 1 M population (500 / 20 million for the state).

Obviously for NYC it's even higher.

Italy is at about 150 deaths per 1 M population (9000 / 60 million for the country).

I don't see how NY state, if they're about 10-12 days behind Italy, doesn't overtake Italy on that statistic.

That's not good.

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5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Good read on fatality rates.

Also, because of the way countries monitor pandemics like the coronavirus, he says, the case fatality rate tends to decrease over time. The reason: When a new disease first shows up, testing usually focuses on severely ill people who are at high risk of dying. Later on, testing is more likely to include people with milder illness who are less likely to die.

That's what happened with West Nile virus, which appeared in the U.S. in 1999. At first, when scientists only knew of about a few dozen cases, it appeared the mortality rate was higher than 10%. But wider testing eventually found hundreds of thousands of people who'd been infected but never got sick enough to notice. Today, more than 3 million Americans have been infected and studies show that fewer than 1% become seriously ill.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

Yeah but hospitals didn't overflow with West Nile patients, so I wouldn't get my hopes up too much.

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3 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

I mean NY state is already at 25 deaths per 1 M population (500 / 20 million for the state).

Obviously for NYC it's even higher.

Italy is at about 150 deaths per 1 M population (9000 / 60 million for the country).

I don't see how NY state, if they're about 10-12 days behind Italy, doesn't overtake Italy on that statistic.

That's not good.

We're still early stages here. I will say people have been generally good in the New Haven area the last few days. Streets were as quiet as I've ever seen them.

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

We're still early stages here. I will say people have been generally good in the New Haven area the last few days. Streets were as quiet as I've ever seen them.

Yeah, I'm hopeful for CT.  I work in NYC (been home for the last 3 weeks) and from what I hear from co-workers, it hasn't been as quiet in NYC (at least not until recently). 

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Yeah but hospitals didn't overflow with West Nile patients, so I wouldn't get my hopes up too much.

"testing usually focuses on severely ill people who are at high risk of dying"

Exactly what is happening. No one is tested unless it is almost confirmed by symptoms. That is unless you are a member of the royal family or an NBA player.

 

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41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

As the weather warms and we don’t turn this downward by whatever means, we will oscillate with varying spikes throughout the country. We are too spoiled and too cavalier to listen for too long. Unless humidity kills the virus...my opinion...is that the flattening of the curve will be very long. Might look more like a trapezoid than anything else. 

We should have prepped for a total shut down for a 2 week period about 3 weeks ago...2 weeks to prep, and 2 weeks lock down.  Unfortunately people would not allow their freedom to be sacrificed in order to take on such a venture.

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11 minutes ago, klw said:

17 positive tests and 7 deaths now at that rehab in Burlington VT (90 residents in the facility).

https://vtdigger.org/2020/03/27/family-asks-could-burlington-health-rehab-have-done-more/

 

Not sure if it's true but I had a customer the other day whose mother works elder Care in Vermont. According to her the facility had been troublesome before the Coronavirus.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

We have the highest number of critical care beds per capita....so that will help offset some of our other shortcomings. Italy was like 1/3rd of the US, though still ahead of most countries. Italy also has a median age of 45 while the United States is 38.

Italy appears to have the highest fatality rate of any country, though that may be partly an effect of testing only the severely ill.  In any case, whatever metrics were used to put Italy as 2nd best don't seem to be very relevant to COVID-19.  Last week this time I'd hoped their curve would be significantly past peak by now.  :(

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