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moneypitmike

Coronavirus

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Umm everything. This is about to just take over everywhere. It’s bad . Look around 

Once it's up to like 1 Million+ cases in NYC like in the movies, then I'll say it's really bad.  It just irks me when people say "it's really bad right now"....sorry, it's not. Are we trending that direction? Anyone's guess. When people are piling up in the streets like 1918 I'll then say "this is horrible and really bad".  

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9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Just give people a couple days to get what is needed and shut everything down including essential  stuff for 2 to 3 weeks and end this crap.   Only thing that should be open is police,fire and hospitals 

Ugh, thank you! Let the thing burn itself out!!! It's like torture right now. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

hmmm that makes alot of sense. Your post actually dusts off some of the cob webs in my head b/c this idea was mentioned several times in various psychology courses I've taken. This post should be pinned haha...it's a great reminder that in these situations everyone is going to have their own coping mechanism and have a different interpretation (say when it comes to numbers/statistics). 

We have a hard time being objective. We have our minds made up and find something to compare something to...and can’t get away from it. Whether it’s the next KU blizzard we compare past ones with...to girlfriend we compare an ex with...to a president to always references the previous administration in comparison...to covid19 is just like the flu or some wacky comparison to car deaths. They are all done to validate our thoughts but reality doesn’t live in a vacuum of comparisons. 

I don’t know...humans are just weird. Let Tippy get into that though. 

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

8,000+ new cases in Spain. Yikes. Having a hard time despite being locked down. Also, US hospitals are starting to consider universal DNR orders. Really on a crisis footing now.

Where do you see this? On Worldometers it was 6,673 (less than yesterday's 7,457)? 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We have a hard time being objective. We have our minds made up and find something to compare something to...and can’t get away from it. Whether it’s the next KU blizzard we compare past ones with...to girlfriend we compare an ex with...to a president to always references the previous administration in comparison...to covid19 is just like the flu or some wacky comparison to car deaths. They are all done to validate our thoughts but reality doesn’t live in a vacuum of comparisons. 

I don’t know...humans are just weird. Let Tippy get into that though. 

Confirmation bias is very strong.

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1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

Once it's up to like 1 Million+ cases in NYC like in the movies, then I'll say it's really bad.  It just irks me when people say "it's really bad right now"....sorry, it's not. Are we trending that direction? Anyone's guess. When people are piling up in the streets like 1918 I'll then say "this is horrible and really bad".  

It is not anyone's guess.  There are people, experts in this area, who know the range within how this is likely to unfold.  There is tons of data.  You are entitled to your opinion of course, but maybe you should go read the WHO website or something.  And you shouldn't tell people you know or love that "noone knows...it's anyone's guess."  You should tell them to assume they are infected and to behave in ways that don't endanger anyone.  

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27 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

Right now - the only statistic that matters is remaining hospital capacity and when it is projected to be filled.  Because as the hospitals become overwhelmed all of the other statistics will all change and by definition they would come from a different population for statistical analysis since the base conditions will have changed.

I have a very bad feeling that this is going to get very ugly.

I can't speak for other health systems but I know my employer is opening old units and adding additional ones from unused space.  I would think that other health systems are adding capacity as well.  It's not clear when hospital capacities are being talked about if they are referring to their licensed bed or to expanded capacity numbers.

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2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Once it's up to like 1 Million+ cases in NYC like in the movies, then I'll say it's really bad.  It just irks me when people say "it's really bad right now"....sorry, it's not. Are we trending that direction? Anyone's guess. When people are piling up in the streets like 1918 I'll then say "this is horrible and really bad".  

Are you taking into consideration the situation  that exist in the hospitals? Are you taking into consideration the number of police officers, paramedics,  and firefighters who currently have the virus? 

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8 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Once it's up to like 1 Million+ cases in NYC like in the movies, then I'll say it's really bad.  It just irks me when people say "it's really bad right now"....sorry, it's not. Are we trending that direction? Anyone's guess. When people are piling up in the streets like 1918 I'll then say "this is horrible and really bad".  

You're ridiculous.  

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Viral load too. These drs and nurses get infected and just keep getting bombarded with it. It’s like sitting on the reactor in Chernobyl. 

This is why social distancing is so important.  We have no reliable way to analyze how the amount of viral load exposure correlates to the severity of the symptoms that people are experiencing.    Over the past few weeks I've read several articles by microbiologists who feel that depth of exposure is an important link in the chain of fatal vs non-fatal cases in seemingly healthy people.

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It has to be like 1918 exactly for it to be horrible and really bad. Like wtf kinda standard is this. 

Exactly...said exactly what I was about to.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Confirmation bias is very strong.

...and fed by a huge polarization around socio-political identities.  Ezra Klein (Why We Are Polarized) writes powerfully about this.  My work is to some large extent about helping managers see and reduce their unconscious biases as it relates to people, and confirmation bias is the most embedded and challenging to see.

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People always use reference points to scale something.  Is X bigger than Y etc.  The problem is no two things are alike and each circumstance is different but you need a reference point in order to have some relativism.  In this case, the entire event hasn't unfolded so it's hard to make a relative comparison to anything.

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I will say that I do think there will be much less spread in rural areas because social distancing is so much easier.  But there will surely be hotspots.  The more urban areas are going to be hit the hardest for sure, but of course that is where a lot of the economy is.

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15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

You're ridiculous.  

(Reuters) - During Lent, Catholics are called on to give up something, like sweets. On Wednesday, Pope Francis added a modern twist to the list of things to quit during the season and beyond: insulting people on social media.

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Just now, Dr. Dews said:

(Reuters) - During Lent, Catholics are called on to give up something, like sweets. On Wednesday, Pope Francis added a modern twist to the list of things to quit during the season and beyond: insulting people on social media.

You should take your own advice bro. I'm also not a catholic. 

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

(Reuters) - During Lent, Catholics are called on to give up something, like sweets. On Wednesday, Pope Francis added a modern twist to the list of things to quit during the season and beyond: insulting people on social media.

Perhaps you and Pope Francis can discuss your take on Dems being far from god and lacking family values.  

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13 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

People always use reference points to scale something.  Is X bigger than Y etc.  The problem is no two things are alike and each circumstance is different but you need a reference point in order to have some relativism.  In this case, the entire event hasn't unfolded so it's hard to make a relative comparison to anything.

This points up an issue my math-friendly brain has with a lot of media reports - numbers and other data offered without context.  Leaves me thinking, "How does that compare to . . . ?

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Yeah...I mean the frustration is growing ... not just in this particular social media'shere. You can 'sense' that in the tenor of media et al - impatience and even eventual 'soft' revolt become concerning if not far behind.. 

I agree that three weeks of complete and utter immobilization of society down to dystopian stand-still probably works to 'flat-line' curves of this thing.  In simple physical nature, this thing runs it's course in that time window. So it has to - no choice. Complete non-exposure scenario chokes off it's fuel: new hosts.  That would immediately reduce the numbers.

However...there is an obvious human condition that makes that less than very viable or realistic.   

It becomes a race of novelties.  The novelty of hunkering down in one's immediate environment, with no fulfillment of that baser human instinct and drive to find and experience the joy of relational frustration ( ha) with others is an interesting social experiment. Even with the incredible kaleidoscope of distractions modern technology provides us in our personal spaces. Inevitably, the 750,000 years of human co-dependency evolution that's distilled all living people to seek that sense of 'collective psychology' will erode on the novelty and confidence of a suppression model.  Not to mention that discrete logistical implausibility of sustaining a vital system that way, people still need bread and milk and water ... 

Meanwhile, the machine-like impartiality of this novel contagion bides time.  It can't forever... when it runs out of hosts, it's stopped. That's it. Unless it is the first virus in the history of the planet that is indestructible in naked openness, indefinitely, 60 days of utter shut down ends it. 

Who's patience wins?   

Human's don't lock down, not for very long. They will lose patience.  The race between patience and results is on.   It's just my opinion ( and it may admittedly be personally biased if however cynical) is that if the patience is too challenged, more and more the masses will start to rationalize the 90% 'walk away unscathed' number as negotiable and an increasingly attractive alternative. The "I'm done" mentality kicks in .. bolstered and empowered by shared sentiment, this could overwhelm. There's no guarantee such a 'forced' diaspora of population back into the streets would seamlessly transition, to where say .. a functional society has learned to live with this disease's epidemiology - the management destiny, like the flu, anyway. That could be rough, just saying possibly .. flirt with a presumed break-down of social order and lost sense of control at a systemic level - and then you got a real f'n problem on your hands ...

The totality of Human response to this pathogen in that scenario becomes vastly disproportionate to the cause - i.e., either non-confidence and/or flat out panic. People panicking in throngs over survival is a wave of chaos-tsunamis that could crumble civil foundations with far more proficiency than any 7 days of flu-like symptoms in that same population.  It seems intuitive that the baser will for order would prevail, probably stops that .. ?  But, the trope of "I never imagined it would come to this" exists for a reason too -

 

 

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50 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Just give people a couple days to get what is needed and shut everything down including essential  stuff for 2 to 3 weeks and end this crap.   Only thing that should be open is police,fire and hospitals 

That's insane. Can you imagine what would happen if they told people that they have a couple days to stock up before everything essential is shut down for a few weeks? The mass panic would be so crazy that you wouldn't even be able to get into a grocery store. Then you would have people stuck in their houses without enough food. There's no way that anything like that could ever be done.

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Been working from home one day and already getting shunned with some pissy texts/emails from co-workers about why I get to work from home. Conveniently our CEO and legal found some loopholes in the stay at home mandates claiming we're essential. I suppose a case could be made that our products help keep dairy cows healthier and thus the human milk supply, but that's a stretch. Honestly I feel a  bit guilty about being home, but I do plan on going into the lab at night for a few hrs, but not every night. I think we should close for 2 wks and see where we are. Most of the manufacturing people physically work closely and there have been two people sent home not feeling well, but got medically cleared to work and are back. IDK, I think it's a recipe for disaster. It's all about the revenues. Bunch of bs.

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My sister in law is an ER nurse at Boston Medical Center....on the front lines. I texted her this morning wishing her well...part of her response:

"The truth is it's only the beginning. New cases increasing everyday, it hasn't peaked yet. That's what's so scary. And people are bored at home combined with nice weather, more people are out and about."

Happy Easter everyone!

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I remember going on road trips as a kid and after stuck in unexpected traffic for a while, my dad would always say "There'd better be dead bodies on the road after all this!" That's not far from the actual sentiment rapidly gaining traction among the good citizens of this country.

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Let’s go back to the car accident and seasonal flu comparisons and discuss something albeit anecdotal:

1.  How many of you know someone as a relative, friend of a friend, etc who was hospitalized from flu?

2.  How many of you know someone who is hospitalized from COVID?

3.  How many of you have had an accident and walked away?

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40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nurses wearing trash bags in nyc. I mean, 3rd world country stuff. Disgusting.

Well, you know, states have to play ball and be nice to Trump if they want Federal help.  His childishness knows no boundaries. 

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33 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I remember going on road trips as a kid and after stuck in unexpected traffic for a while, my dad would always say "There'd better be dead bodies on the road after all this!" That's not far from the actual sentiment rapidly gaining traction among the good citizens of this country.

Many Americans have zero patience because they live in a world of near instant gratification and their attention spans are that  of a baby chimp. 
i’ll give it another week or two before people start saying “F’ this, I’m going out to see my friends and if I catch it I catch it.”

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