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March Discobs 2020


George BM
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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Tomorrow should be interesting from a temperature forecast standpoint...The GFS has us all near 80 at 2pm tomorrow while the 3K NAM has Baltimore at 51F lol. Somethings gonna bust hard 

Yeah it will be a challenge to figure out how far north the warm front gets(and how soon). Looks like there will be a pretty large temp gradient somewhere through our area or just north.

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The latest from LWX:

(snip)

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday will start with ample low clouds and fog attempting to
lift. How quickly it does so may be the key to the forecast.
Believe there will be a sharp inversion, with a warm nose which
could be as warm as 19C near 925 mb.

A cold front will approach during the day, and cross the region
during the afternoon, during peak heating (18-00 UTC). There
will be ample shear across the region. Instability will be the
question. If the wedge holds, then instability will be minimal
and the front would either come through dry or as a few showers
(with perhaps an elevated rumble of thunder). But, if the wedge
does manage to mix out, then MUCAPE may exceed 1000 j/kg. Given
the other ingredients in place, that would be supportive of
robust thunderstorms. There are guidance members on each side of
the fence.

After collaboration with SPC, decided that the conditional
threat great enough to at least mention somehow...hence
Marginal Risk of severe. Am maintaining a chance of precip
crossing the area in the database, with a slight chance of
thunder. It may be that both solutions are correct; ie:
cool/stable air across northern Maryland while moist/unstable
air present across central Virginia and southern Maryland.
Will
be monitoring later cycles to discern these details.

Sunday night into Monday a deep cyclone will build across the
Great Lakes. The area will experience high pressure but westerly
flow and cold advection. Lows will be in the 40s again by
Monday night.
(snip)

 

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Balmy 74 in Deep Creek.

Been 50 all day here.

Tomorrow will be interesting. Going to be a battle zone with the warm front and the low level maritime air mass in place. The warm front should win out later in the day here I would think. Expecting to see low 70s by late afternoon here.

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Mount Holly AFD is a tad comical wrt to forecast temps tomorrow. Looks like a high bust potential..

A cold front will extend eastward then southward from the low and surge toward the area during the day as a strong midlevel jet streak races northeastward to the Northeast. As a result, the warm front should lift northward during the day, but I suspect the ageostrophic contribution to the onshore flow via upslope is being underplayed. Confidence is high enough to keep the northern CWA quite chilly tomorrow (around or below 50), whereas southern Delmarva will approach 80. Of course, temperatures in between are the tricky part and will ultimately depend on very short-term trends/guidance. In other words, expect the temperature forecast to be susceptible to considerable error in portions of the CWA. To illustrate, the latest MET MOS for PHL is 57 for tomorrow, and the latest MAV MOS projects 70. Even worse for GED: 66 versus 84. Yikes. For now, the forecast is generally weighted toward the colder NAM- based guidance but with some input from statistical guidance as well.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

50 and drizzle here. Temp has not budged since early morning yesterday.

Forecast is still for low 70s here this afternoon, but high bust potential. I would love a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s.

Yea - rock steady atm.  However, you can see the warm air is just below Richmond and coming N.  Temps currently in the 80's in NC, at 11am.  Way too early in the year for that.  

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.3;-80.0;5&l=temperature-2m    

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2 hours ago, RDM said:

Yea - rock steady atm.  However, you can see the warm air is just below Richmond and coming N.  Temps currently in the 80's in NC, at 11am.  Way too early in the year for that.  

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.3;-80.0;5&l=temperature-2m    

Agree - just stumbled across it.  Been using Windy.com for a long time, which has similar graphics.  Looks like the 80F line is approaching Richmond now.  If we get those higher temps and dp up this way, it may make the potential for later today interesting.  

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14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Just went for a long walk around the neighborhood and couldn’t will the sun out yet. Still socked in with clouds and 53. A few days back forecast high was 69. We will be lucky to make it to 59 up here.

I think we're good even up in Baltimore County.  Note on the satellite how there's low level flow now switching out of the south.  As the mid level junk is clearing out the lower level fog and such is eroding in southern Maryland.  It'll take longer than forecast, and that may be due to the models lacking daya from less commercial aircraft.  Until this whole COVID thing blows over I'd take the low end of guidance and lean more towards nowcasting.

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