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March Medium/Long Range Disco


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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps coastal signal for day 6-8 getting stronger. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-5807200.png

0z OP Euro verbatim with a little further se track would have thrown down some wet paste for far nw burbs.  Interesting timeframe. Even a 2-4" rainy windy noreaster would be fun to track imo.

 

The PSU storm version 3.0  goes along with this 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

And this as well.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

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4 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I can open windows and doors and go for a walk. So, yeah, 41 and driving rain in early April while at home is the sucks.

Yea but would you want to be outside in a normal April pattern when it’s 52 and raining?  Either way a rainy day in April is miserable. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but would you want to be outside in a normal April pattern when it’s 52 and raining?  Either way a rainy day in April is miserable. 

I’m a enthused about it.  I get a bit depressed in warmer weather especially if the sun is out.  And the current situation hasn’t helped much for any of us.  Maybe a good cold rain will help us all feel a bit better and think of winter.  

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46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but would you want to be outside in a normal April pattern when it’s 52 and raining?  Either way a rainy day in April is miserable. 

Whether it’s 41 or 52, either way is not awesome, which was my response to wiggum, on nicer days, even quarantined, I can enjoy a sunny day.

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Whether it’s 41 or 52, either way is not awesome, which was my response to wiggum, on nicer days, even quarantined, I can enjoy a sunny day.

I know just imo the April blocking thing is overblown some. If it’s a sunny day barring some Uber rare arctic shot it’s likely going to be 50-55 degrees. That’s not that bad. It was 55 with a breeze here today and felt great outside in the sun.  55 vs 70 isn’t worth all the worry. And if it’s a rainy day yea a 40 degree rain sucks more than a 50 degree rain but either way I’m not going to be out in it so who cares. 

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4 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Quick look at the latest Eps for our coastal it appears the blocking is so good our low doesn't have enough room to amplify and really blow up close enough to the coast.  Low hieghts to the northeast are inhibiting a nice closed 500 mb low from really getting established it appears.  Still an interesting setup and I will continue to track and one we haven't seen in a long time . 

 

no cold high is killing us

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

no cold high is killing us

It would have been plenty cold enough 4 weeks ago. Most of our biggest blocking regime snowstorms aren’t arctic cold. 1996 was rare in that regard. Way more often they are cold enough but not super cold. Many of them even looked marginal temp wise from range like feb 2010 and Jan 2016.  A 40 degree rain now would have been a 30 degree snow a month ago. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Basically an extension of winter. Fail within 5 or 6 days. Either ends up too warm with crud track or HP overwhelms and storm blows up well S and E off the coast. Pattern persistence has not changed.

If this was winter...I actually think this has trended the way we want the last couple runs. The upper track is about perfect now. We just need it to amplify more. Not that impossible a get from 5 days. But it won’t matter either way. 

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7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It would have been plenty cold enough 4 weeks ago. Most of our biggest blocking regime snowstorms aren’t arctic cold. 1996 was rare in that regard. Way more often they are cold enough but not super cold. Many of them even looked marginal temp wise from range like feb 2010 and Jan 2016.  A 40 degree rain now would have been a 30 degree snow a month ago. 

The three big storms in 2009-10 all started out with marginal temps that fell as the storm got going. I recall the first Feb storm, the temp was 37 when it started snowing, but within an hour it was in the low 30s with moderate snow, then most of the storm it was in the mid 20s.(amazing how that happens when we have everything in the right places with a feed of cold, dry air- complete opposite of this winter). The follow up storm a few days later actually was rain here for a while before the mid level low moved over and temps crashed into the 20s in an all out blizzard. The coldest storm by far that winter was the late Jan cold powder event with temps in the mid teens. Ended up with 7-8'" of fluff here, and I actually enjoyed that one almost as much as the biggies- probably some of it had to do with it trending better and better in the last couple days leading up. Looked like a sure miss to the south at one point.

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