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March Medium/Long Range Disco


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2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Now would be a really great time for a big snowstorm to show up on all the models so we have something to track. Or for it to be 70 and sunny every day so we all have something to go out and enjoy. Stay safe, everyone!

Sunny/70 sounds great to help with everyone’s mental health right now.

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Just now, nj2va said:

Sunny/70 sounds great to help with everyone’s mental health right now.

Not everyone’s.  70s depress me.  But if that’s what the majority need right now I will root for it.  I learned earlier that rooting for something may have some impact.  

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9 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

It's worth noting that about 20% of Eps members get  a back door cf in the area on Thursday . Something to watch 

I looks like a general repeat of late last week, but with maybe some better convection.It was in the mid 70s here last Friday then 50s for the weekend.

At this point a day of 80+ would be NBD. I would not be surprised to see quite a few more in April.

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               While it's an obvious long shot, and I won't try to pretend otherwise, this is a chilly and very dry air mass that will settling in over us on Sunday.   (The GFS shows dew points dropping perhaps into the single digits early Sunday).      So IF the low can track south of us and we can get precip in here overnight Sunday,  that could work for some of us.

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Changing the tune a bit, don't be surprised if we get our first 80s of the season across the region Friday. The warm front bringing severe weather to the Midwest and southern Plains will bring us strong southwesterly flow and if the initial wave of precipitation can clear in the AM, we'll roast. Additionally, we have a low CAPE, high shear setup that could bring a round of storms as the cold front moves in Friday evening. 

march 18 gfs.png

nam sounding march 18.png

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