Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March Medium/Long Range Disco


CAPE
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Ji said:
3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:
GFS trying to go all meso with depicting localized banding at day 9. Ambitious.
Ground truth will probably translate to 60 and light rain. Or partly sunny.

Before it can snow in your back yard it has to snow digitally. @bobchill is interested

I cancelled wxbell 2 weeks ago and have been barely following. If whatever fantasy threat there's talk about gets inside of 5 days I'll get back in the seat. Until then hiking, biking, and spring yard cleanup are on tap. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I cancelled wxbell 2 weeks ago and have been barely following. If whatever fantasy threat there's talk about gets inside of 5 days I'll get back in the seat. Until then hiking, biking, and spring yard cleanup are on tap. 

Aw man, I was just about to christen this one "Bob Chill II".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I cancelled wxbell 2 weeks ago and have been barely following. If whatever fantasy threat there's talk about gets inside of 5 days I'll get back in the seat. Until then hiking, biking, and spring yard cleanup are on tap. 

I cancelled a couple days ago. I only follow just for amusement and some subtle trolling lol. Nothing is going to happen. Pretty darn confident about that. I started working out in the yard last weekend with everything happening weeks ahead of schedule. Picked up my lawn fertilizer and eradicating chickweed from the mulch beds. Will probably put down some new mulch this weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Lots and lots of blooming going on around DC right now. Strong sun. Really felt like Spring out there today.

You guys are really way ahead of spring schedule. So are we down in S Cen TX, 2 foot high grass in places, blooming, and leafout gettin underway! We've mowed the lawn TWICE already!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Shame about late tomorrow into Saturday. The timing is just a little off. That storm is not that far off from actually being something for our region. Have generally seen some minor adjustments with the trough and heights in front of it the last couple of days that have improved the look somewhat though not nearly enough. Last nights run of the CMC actually had me going hmmmm..... for a moment. As it is, looking at the CMC would probably be suggestive of at least some flakes in the air for the area if not even a mulch covering/inch N/W of the cities tomorrow evening. 

  • Sad 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just got a chance to look somewhat on the models after taking a break with a casino trip. After looking over them I will officially go on the record to say that I am mildly interested in the potential from possibly 6 days and out through the extended. What we are seeing is an active pattern with some decent indications of the potential of lows training through the 50/50 region. Not really seeing indications of blocking so we are probably talking transient 50/50's. at best That being the case we would be talking about timing with any follow up energy driving into the east. Now getting the timing can be a difficult task (not to mention we have to get the temps to be agreeable) but if we can get several shots at it you just never know. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...I spoke about Friday night in the other thread since it's short range but your right it's real close but probably a miss . I still see evidence of possible Inverted trough or similar on some guidance so there's that unknown.  Here's that CMC you mentioned.  That 500 534dm closed contour isn't that far off OC :D

Btw...just ride the Hdrps...it gives you 2-3"

gem_z500_vort_eus_9.png

The setup pretty much argues for an inverted trough somewhere through the general region though it probably favors to the north and east. For those that can possibly get underneath it they probably have a decent shot. Right now the temps look to be agreeable from 925 mbs and up. It's just the underneath it to the surface which is the sticking point. Get some rates and chances are good it can overcome that low level warmth. Know the CMC favors to the N/W of the cities at this time for the possibility of accumulating snow but I would not be surprised whatsoever if what we end up with calls of NE MD pummeling (if you consider an inch or two a pummeling. :) )

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Looking over BWI records...this would only be the fourth time on record that we've failed to crack the 2 inch mark. If we fail to get anymore this winter, then two of those times would have happened within the last 10 years, smh (the other time was 1972-73 where we only got 1.2 inches)

Knowing general probabilities is good for setting realistic long term expectations but useless for making shorter term forecasts.  For instance we know if we flip a coin 1000 times you will likely get about 500 heads. But within that there can be a run of tails. The long term trends don’t help predict each specific flip. Our snowfall has a lot of randomness. Over the long run it will even out but year to year using those probabilities is dangerous. 

Once we are in a specific pattern looking at analogs to that pattern is more indicative of expectations than the overall probabilities for all years.  Yes it’s rare to get really low snowfall like this overall BUT the analogs to this pattern have some of our worst snowfall years. Plus many of those years what little snow we got cake early before this pattern set in sometime in January. We had a few chances at that but mostly missed. Most of the analogs had very little or no snow the rest of winter once this pattern set in. So that data set is more useful and more pessimistic than the long term general probabilities. 

I will end on the positive that a couple of the analogs did luck into a snow in March. Not the majority but enough to say it’s possible. History suggests the chances for snow in years like this are early before the dominant winter longwave pattern sets in and very late as short wavelengths creates added chaos. 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:
I am SOOOO shocked the GFS shifted north to look like everything else...(actually its still south just not as crazy stupid south of all other guidance). 

Looks like our tracking season is over

Probably...but there is a parade of systems in the long range, and the longwave pattern looks fairly volatile (not uncommon for March) all it would take is to get one to act as a 50/50 and time another one up and maybe.  So its not a total no hope pattern, but I certainly wouldn't expect anything.  

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another legit snow headed this way tomorrow -- NWS Pit calling for 4-8" and NWS CRW calling for 5-10"

I know I've been harping on how our scarce snows this year seem to be timing out for weekenders well, but this is amazing.   One more good ski weekend (at least).

  • Like 5
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Another legit snow headed this way tomorrow -- NWS Pit calling for 4-8" and NWS CRW calling for 5-10"

I know I've been harping on how our scarce snows this year seem to be timing out for weekenders well, but this is amazing.   One more good ski weekend (at least).

Yes, it is amazing.  I was up at Whitegrass this past weekend the skiing was excellent, although snow was melting fast on Sunday.  Another great storm coming your way!

 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • H2O unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...