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March Medium/Long Range Disco


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10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I only have 24 hr maps but it appears the EURO is too far north but has the storm...984 over NYC at 216

Yup....Interesting how different the WB GFS and EURO maps are at 18Z Thursday, but almost on top of each other at 18Z Friday.  I would also note that the EURO did not have the storm at 0Z.

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-4036000.png

gfs-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-4036000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-4122400.png

gfs-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-4122400.png

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7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I only have 24 hr maps but it appears the EURO is too far north but has the storm...984 over NYC at 216

So the preponderance of evidence has a storm there but its north and warm.... and the one guidance that has a known severe cold bias is cold/south...hmmm... wonder what is going to happen.  

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11 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I only have 24 hr maps but it appears the EURO is too far north but has the storm...984 over NYC at 216

 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So the preponderance of evidence has a storm there but its north and warm.... and the one guidance that has a known severe cold bias is cold/south...hmmm... wonder what is going to happen.  

We just need luck on Friday, the 13th....come on now!!! Our luck has been so bad this winter, it would be very ironic if we get some good luck next Friday.

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20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

 

We just need luck on Friday, the 13th....come on now!!! Our luck has been so bad this winter, it would be very ironic if we get some good luck next Friday.

It would be super incredible if we get some wound up beast that pummels the whole east coast. March 13. Yeah ...

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So the preponderance of evidence has a storm there but its north and warm.... and the one guidance that has a known severe cold bias is cold/south...hmmm... wonder what is going to happen.  

I mean, I am not expecting anything either in terms of snow here, but at least it's noteworthy that everything at least has the storm this far out.  Maybe someone will score somewhere in the northeast with this.

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Let's keep it real. We'll keep watching even though we know the outcome. We do it because we are strange, strange people. Yet, everything, this far out has a chance, even in a terrible winter like this one.
Sitting on a toilet it's that kind of winter, but we can hope on scoring something bu the 15th.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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GFS trying to go all meso with depicting localized banding at day 9. Ambitious.
Ground truth will probably translate to 60 and light rain. Or partly sunny.
Before it can snow in your back yard it has to snow digitally. @bobchill is interested
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I just want to see how many more awesome fantasy runs we can pull out of this.  The pattern is really working against this thing, which means a  99.9% chance it's not happening. But maybe we can do 20+ on the 00z or 06z before the GFS finally wakes up?

 

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I’m still not buying it one bit, not even a little. But that is the best ensemble run for a specific discreet threat all winter. That said nope. Not biting. 
Just buy it..its mid march...what else is there to buy?
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