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March Medium/Long Range Disco


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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s probably because somewhere in the back of your mind you still cling to hope. Abandon all hope and accept our fate and it will go much more smoothly. 

Yeah you don't know my brain, lol Suckage is suckage...living through it is not easier. Just like we knew the +AO would suck...doesn't make it any better. Coming on here, having all the negative emotion reinforced...hearing forecasts of mild records everywhere...how the heck does expecting less make that better? Heck, I dread this for next year, and it will still suck if it happens. I don't think the "abandon hope" option works for everybody.

For example:

I will never trust a nina again and will always expect the worst. But that doesn't mean that all the crap that usually comes with a nina (close misses, perpetual snowhole, beaches clobbered, n + e cashing in) still isn't gonna be depressing. Low expectations don't equal things being pleasant.

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24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hopefully another neutral + minimum could be better...If you wanna look at history, I'd lean more towards average snowfall...all the minimum years hit that or better within a year...But of course, climate...so who knows.

It’s going to do what it does regardless of how much we worry about it now. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s probably because somewhere in the back of your mind you still cling to hope. Abandon all hope and accept our fate and it will go much more smoothly. 

None of us can abandon all hope, including you. We might say we have, but we still hope. Perhaps not now, but come mid November we will be right here.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe if i dig deep enough I’ll emerge out the other side of winter and it will be in the phase 8 you were predicting using the CFS. 

Understanding you are using statistical probabilities based on assumptions it will be a Nina but so much can change over the next several months not sure it’s worth discussing. Except for the fact it gets on Mersky’s nerves. 

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1 hour ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Understanding you are using statistical probabilities based on assumptions it will be a Nina but so much can change over the next several months not sure it’s worth discussing. Except for the fact it gets on Mersky’s nerves. 

Bingo...

A WAG about next year isn’t worth much. I’m not claiming it is. I’ve been transparent that it’s just a wag based on probabilities and trends.  That said the probabilities favor a below avg winter. Of course that’s true EVERY year.  But mostly I find it amusing that this bothers Mersky so much. 

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10 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My preference would be to get through April without ever sniffing 80. I would love to see every day in the 50s and 60s, maybe an occasional 70 or so. That's just me. I hate to see early heat and humidity. We have months and months of that crap in our future. That is inevitable. We can all wish/hope to get what we consider to be pleasant early Spring weather, and that certainly is subjective. Wont change a thing or make it any more or less likely to occur. Not sure why anyone would engage in arguments over such things. Quite absurd.

We hit 76/65 down here in S Cen TX today. Dewpoint has been a pleasant 65 for a couple days now. We experienced a few of those back on Jan and Feb lol. The spring warmth is coming pretty early for us too.

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Bingo...

A WAG about next year isn’t worth much. I’m not claiming it is. I’ve been transparent that it’s just a wag based on probabilities and trends.  That said the probabilities favor a below avg winter. Of course that’s true EVERY year.  But mostly I find it amusing that this bothers Mersky so much. 

could you troll him in banter at least? 

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19 minutes ago, mappy said:

could you troll him in banter at least? 

That last post definitely belonged in banter. Sorry. The discussion with Maestro and ji was legit though. It is just a wag but it is my best guess ATT. It’s not worth much but the probabilities are what they are. I wasn’t making those posts JUST to troll Mersky...but if it bothers him that’s just an added bonus. 

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9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS...Lucy has put the football down again.

gfs-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype-4014400.png

gfs-deterministic-ma-total_snow_kuchera-4057600.png

gfs-deterministic-ma-z500_anom-4014400.png

"Again"? I'm not sure there have been many footballs put down in the first place, lol I guess the only remotely close "football" was a few weeks ago...and even that was lower percentage at the start with no EURO support. And I'm almost fully expecting you to say eps says no in a couple hours (but I hope you spare us the maps, lol...why ya torture yourself and us with those is beyond me...WHY?)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

"Again"? I'm not sure there have been many footballs put down in the first place, lol And I'm almost fully expecting you to say eps says no in a couple hours (but I hope you spare us the maps, lol...why ya torture yourself and us with those is beyond me...WHY?)

I have not posted maps in almost a day...but your right: Dr. No is on its way!

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12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I have not posted maps in almost a day...but your right: Dr. No is on its way!

I can see something like this happening what with the battle of the air masses in March. Probably not of course but it's trending in the right direction. Something to track at least for a few hours.

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On 3/3/2020 at 11:39 AM, Baltimorewx said:

I suppose ~March 12 is still worth watching...verbatim GFS tracks the low right over us but any adjustment in heights/better blocking and maybe we get thrown a bone

For the record..See Im not always negative;):lol:...This is the one!  192 hr is an absolute beaut though...Just puking snow

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18 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My preference would be to get through April without ever sniffing 80. I would love to see every day in the 50s and 60s, maybe an occasional 70 or so. That's just me. I hate to see early heat and humidity. We have months and months of that crap in our future. That is inevitable. We can all wish/hope to get what we consider to be pleasant early Spring weather, and that certainly is subjective. Wont change a thing or make it any more or less likely to occur. Not sure why anyone would engage in arguments over such things. Quite absurd.

<psu>

The weather doesn't care what you want. I don't know why you worry about what the weather will do, but if it affects you so much maybe you need another hobby.

</psu>

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

To give you an idea how likely the above GFS outcome is...

Boston's highest all time snowfall record sits at 27.6". This storm dumps almost double that at almost 53". 

Superstorm 2020.  Open a thread.  Actually the WB 12Z Canadian operational has a big storm (not snow) late next week as well for us.

gem-all-east-z500_anom-4187200.png

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

To give you an idea how likely the above GFS outcome is...

Boston's highest all time snowfall record sits at 27.6". This storm dumps almost double that at almost 53". 

So you’re telling me there’s a chance...

Ok the crazy stupid over amplified solution aside I suppose there is always the chance at something. The 1976 scenario. That year was very similar pattern and results then our area got a foot of snow mid March from a storm that has no business working in a crap pattern. So there is always that fluke chance...but my money is in this just being one more kick to the nads. 

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