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March Medium/Long Range Disco


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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

I suppose ~March 12 is still worth watching...verbatim GFS tracks the low right over us but any adjustment in heights/better blocking and maybe we get thrown a bone

It’s bleeding the wrong way on guidance but it’s still barely within the scope of possible so I guess it’s worth a peek each run. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Won’t matter much.  Even with blocking most days in April will be warm. Maybe we get a few days of 40s but most days will be 50+ early April and 60+ after April 15th even in a -NAO. 

Even when we get snow in April it’s often 50+ the day before and after. Sustained cold is very unlikely. 

I hear ya but I want a steady supply of 60s..and I feel like if there was good blocking, we'd have a fair share of foggy/dreary/misty days and we've had enough of those!

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

I hear ya but I want a steady supply of 60s..and I feel like if there was good blocking, we'd have a fair share of foggy/dreary/misty days and we've had enough of those!

Unless it is going to snow- there is nothing positive about it being cold this time of year.  Bring on spring

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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I hear ya but I want a steady supply of 60s..and I feel like if there was good blocking, we'd have a fair share of foggy/dreary/misty days and we've had enough of those!

A -NAO in April would likely result in 60s most of the time. Without it we would probably be pushing 90 by the end of the month in this regime.

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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I hear ya but I want a steady supply of 60s..and I feel like if there was good blocking, we'd have a fair share of foggy/dreary/misty days and we've had enough of those!

Even our coldest Aprils featured plenty of 60+ days... we just might not get a lot of 75+ days in April which can happen without blocking.  It would mean we actually get a spring and don't just jump right into Summer weather like @C.A.P.E. said.  "Cold April" fears are almost always overblown imo unless a couple chilly days in the 40's is really going to ruin the entire month for you.  

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5 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Unless it is going to snow- there is nothing positive about it being cold this time of year.  Bring on spring

What we "want" won't make any difference.   Not saying you are saying this...but every year we start to get some posts about now with people who want it to be warm and sunny annoyed at people still rooting for late snow...or people tracking snow annoyed with people who are done and want warmth.  Who cares....they can all root for whatever they want because it wont affect what actually happens.  If what other people want to happen actually affects your mood...well that is a different problem and I am not going there.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

What we "want" won't make any difference.   Not saying you are saying this...but every year we start to get some posts about now with people who want it to be warm and sunny annoyed at people still rooting for late snow...or people tracking snow annoyed with people who are done and want warmth.  Who cares....they can all root for whatever they want because it wont affect what actually happens.  If what other people want to happen actually affects your mood...well that is a different problem and I am not going there.  

Yeah I have always found this to be one of the oddest things I have observed here over the years.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Won’t matter much.  Even with blocking most days in April will be warm. Maybe we get a few days of 40s but most days will be 50+ early April and 60+ after April 15th even in a -NAO. 

Even when we get snow in April it’s often 50+ the day before and after. Sustained cold is very unlikely. 

50+ in April in DC proper would be considerably below normal. We're in the mid-60s trending toward 70+ on average in April.

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

50+ in April in DC proper would be considerably below normal. We're in the mid-60s trending toward 70+ on average in April.

Well yea if we get a -NAO we could get a below avg April but people are acting like it will be a cold miserable month. Maybe a few days tops. But a 55 degree sunny day in April isn’t my idea of suffering or worth obsessively fearing. 

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well yea if we get a -NAO we could get a below avg April but people are acting like it will be a cold miserable month. Maybe a few days tops. But a 55 degree sunny day in April isn’t my idea of suffering or worth obsessively fearing. 

And others definitely disagree. No need to get into subjective arguments. That's unpleasant for some folks, especially because such days in April usually come with a north wind.

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who cares about april cold...if you get an early -NAO in early april....it can help get a storm underneath us....to give us a snowy day that probably wouldnt stick  unless it was a bomb. the only way we score in april is a bomb

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49 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

And others definitely disagree. No need to get into subjective arguments. That's unpleasant for some folks, especially because such days in April usually come with a north wind.

I’m sure there are real problems those people could find to worry about 

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

And others definitely disagree. No need to get into subjective arguments. That's unpleasant for some folks, especially because such days in April usually come with a north wind.

My preference would be to get through April without ever sniffing 80. I would love to see every day in the 50s and 60s, maybe an occasional 70 or so. That's just me. I hate to see early heat and humidity. We have months and months of that crap in our future. That is inevitable. We can all wish/hope to get what we consider to be pleasant early Spring weather, and that certainly is subjective. Wont change a thing or make it any more or less likely to occur. Not sure why anyone would engage in arguments over such things. Quite absurd.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
In this pattern winter could have been GOT length and it wouldn’t have made any difference. 

I'm actually starting to worry about next winter.

Why worry? Expect total suckage. Anything better is an over performer.

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:
28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
In this pattern winter could have been GOT length and it wouldn’t have made any difference. 

I'm actually starting to worry about next winter.

I wasn’t kidding about my 5-10” prediction. I mean it’s a WAG and totally based on probabilities BUT it’s legit. Currently odds do not favor a nino and other than ninos all other winters following years like this mostly sucked. On top of that our median snowfall since 2000 in all non nino years is 7.5”. So yea next year is probably going to suck.  

But look on the bright side...maybe they miscalculated and that huge asteroid this week will hit the Earth and then we won’t have to suffer through it. 

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:
29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
In this pattern winter could have been GOT length and it wouldn’t have made any difference. 

I'm actually starting to worry about next winter.

Same...

 

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Why worry? Expect total suckage. Anything better is an over performer.

Expecting suckage doesn't make any suckage suck less...Just like you can expect your team to lose a big game...but it still sucks anyway. I know for me...lowered expectations doesn't always translate to lowered disappointment when it doesn't work out. 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Same...

 

Expecting suckage doesn't make any suckage suck less...Just like you can expect your team to lose a big game...but it still sucks anyway. I know for me...lowered expectations doesn't always translate to lowered disappointment when it doesn't work out. 

That’s probably because somewhere in the back of your mind you still cling to hope. Abandon all hope and accept our fate and it will go much more smoothly. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t kidding about my 5-10” prediction. I mean it’s a WAG and totally based on probabilities BUT it’s legit. Currently odds do not favor a nino and other than ninos all other winters following years like this mostly sucked. On top of that our median snowfall since 2000 in all non nino years is 7.5”. So yea next year is probably going to suck.  

But look on the bright side...maybe they miscalculated and that huge asteroid this week will hit the Earth and then we won’t have to suffer through it. 

So what is it leaning towards? Another neutral? (or nina?)

And punting another winter?...Mercy...I'm hoping the solar minimum saves us next year. All the other ones on record seem to have given us average or better.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So what is it leaning towards? Another neutral? (or nina?)

And punting another winter?...Mercy...I'm hoping the solar minimum saves us next year. All the other ones on record seem to have given us average or better.

Guidance right now is split between neutral to Nina. 

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