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March Medium/Long Range Disco


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26 minutes ago, Ji said:

id feel better if the Low wasnt almost off the western coast of Africa

It’s a double barrel low with a primary from the initial SS wave way out east and a redevelopment closer to the coast. That can work. Not saying it will here though. On an ens mean it won’t show well. But you know that and are just being a smart ass. But some others might not realize that. 

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Lol ..I know but there's 21 members that give 2 inch or more for parts of the forum. Highest yet.

My girlfriend lives in Sykesville but she has a friend who lives in Hampstead...I could go feed her horses I suppose to get in on that 2"

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

2" will be like a Hecs this year lol

it won't stick to the pavement because it has been so warm, plus the sun angle is rough...one positive is if it happens it will do so prior to moving the clocks forward so we will have that benefit

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I'd agree if it was late March but 1st week in March moderate to heavy rates will do the trick outside the heat sinks . We've seen that time after time even 70 degrees 2 days or 1 day before the storm . JMO

lol dude

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7 hours ago, Ji said:
7 hours ago, mappy said:
march 10-day threats? lol good luck with that. 

The 93 storm was nailed 10 days out

this isn't 93

6 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Not sure how you could doubt this is going to happen with this winter. 

just a hunch

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23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Dude..where have you been:D . We've been tracking this for days .Eps qpf has steadily increased every run . 

BTW...I bet you'll be tracking every model run now if not already.  It's what we do ..right? Unless tracking 55 and sunny is your thing :lol:

Busy. This is probably the busiest time of year for me. State test prep, curriculum planning for next year, yearly sped meetings, spring observations all hit at once. Plus I’m an admin for summer school and the planning for that starts now. 

But ive has one eye on it for a while. Just not watching every run come in. I perk once a day.   This is an example of how flukes can happpen in March.  No other time would this have any chance. The longwave pattern would be all wrong without the shirt wavelengths and added potential energy of March giving this a shot to amplify in virtually no space.  

Its also complicated.  We need some phasing and we need it to happen sooner rather than later.  Then there are boundary temp issues.  We’re dealing with the play between the SS and NS and we meee them to play nice.  That doesn’t end well here most of the time but once in a while we get lucky.

And the issue with March is the added volatility can give and take. Long lead tracking is useless. It would be very hard answer a very stable blocking regime for guidance to resolve these type chaos induced scenarios at long leads. So I see it. I’m watching. But I’m not wasting a ton of time on it until we’re into real range. If it’s still there on tonight’s runs tomorrow you will see me start to actually break down the scenarios with deeper analysis. 

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43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Sun angle :axe: this theory has failed miserably in the past .

I'd agree if it was late March but 1st week in March moderate to heavy rates will do the trick outside the heat sinks . We've seen that time after time even 70 degrees 2 days or 1 day before the storm . JMO

I think most probably would take trash can toppers at this point lol

 

No. That theory hasn’t failed. Yes we can get accumulating snow, and on roads. But if you think a sun angle of about 46 degrees compared to about 28 degrees doesn’t matter then you are in for an unpleasant surprise. 

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Decent start to HH.... icon moved in the right direction at h5.

We are getting inside the range where  it’s becoming time to see actual hits and not just “nice trends” imo. Large shifts start to become less likely here on out. Yes the icon is “closer” but at some point soon the guidance will converge and the goal posts will narrow. Right now we are still outside those posts. I’d like to start seeing some op hits soon. If we don’t see any hits on op runs tonight this starts to become even less likely imo. 

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We are getting inside the range where  it’s becoming time to see actual hits and not just “nice trends” imo. Large shifts start to become less likely here on out. Yes the icon is “closer” but at some point soon the guidance will converge and the goal posts will narrow. Right now we are still outside those posts. I’d like to start seeing some op hits soon. If we don’t see any hits on op runs tonight this starts to become even less likely imo. 
I've seen large shifts before inside the range but usually they end up screwing us lol
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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Sun angle :axe: this theory has failed miserably in the past .

I'd agree if it was late March but 1st week in March moderate to heavy rates will do the trick outside the heat sinks . We've seen that time after time even 70 degrees 2 days or 1 day before the storm . JMO

I think most probably would take trash can toppers at this point lol

 

I’d literally take a pile of trash piled up on my lawn just so I can watch my neighbor try and snowblow it. I mean what fantastic entertainment that would be!

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25 minutes ago, Ji said:

The phasing timing for this storm is awful for us

Who cares it would be like  1/2” even if it was cold smoke.  We need a much faster phase/capture and tucked in secondary to develop heavy banding to overcome the torched boundary. But I don’t mind because I’m uninterested in a cartopper from bands of light snow showers anyways.  March is go big or go home time for me. I’m purely chasing dynamic thump events at this point. 

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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

A blizzard on the fish. What a waste.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png

This is probably just that “close miss” I said was inevitable just to inflict the most pain possible (Although my money was on a perfect track rainstorm but there is time for that later). On the other hand I can see the complexity giving guidance issues and an argument to be made for a more tucked in secondary once the phase happens. One key could be a stronger SS wave that can creep further north so that the baroclinic zone isn’t wrecked and way out east when the NS dives in.  The NAM is likely wrong but if that was even close there would likely be a second “colder” round of precip from the coastal. The phasing is just starting at 84 on the NAM but it was likely to look good after. 

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice points and thoughts . 

Do you think we could benefit from a bit more spacing between the Northeast storm near the 50/50 going into this time frame and our ns sw . Its evident on the 12z Eps there's more separation there compared to the Gefs . Hence ..."more hits"... I figured this could give our secondary more room  to amplify which gives us a better shot . Just one variable I was pondering .

A bigger help would be a further west dig from the NS. It’s diving in on top which acts to suppress the flow a bit under it until the phase. By then the initial wave escapes and the secondary almost assuredly will be too far northeast. A further west dig would force ridging ahead of it and allow the SS wave to come north and also allow a further southwest phase. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A bigger help would be a further west dig from the NS. It’s diving in on top which acts to suppress the flow a bit under it until the phase. By then the initial wave escapes and the secondary almost assuredly will be too far northeast. A further west dig would force ridging ahead of it and allow the SS wave to come north and also allow a further southwest phase. 

The gfs op at 12z and 18z had slight ticks east and less dig with the NS. As you have mentioned, got to have that stop soon or our chances will most likely be toast at any accumulating snow. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A bigger help would be a further west dig from the NS. It’s diving in on top which acts to suppress the flow a bit under it until the phase. By then the initial wave escapes and the secondary almost assuredly will be too far northeast. A further west dig would force ridging ahead of it and allow the SS wave to come north and also allow a further southwest phase. 

I feel like if that was going to happen we’d see it.  Seems the GFS, right or wrong, is fairly steady last 3 runs.  Hard to imagine a large shift at h5 this late in the game.  

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