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March Medium/Long Range Disco


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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z GFS continued improvement for Friday to this untrained eye.  Cold as always is the big issue as I see it

Agreed. Better look at h5. Trough is further west. Close to something better. Been trending the right way for like 7 runs in a row now. That’s something we haven’t seen all year. 

 It’s march. I’ve seen flakes falling from the sky like 3 times all year. I don’t care about 3”. My bar for any storm at this point is seeing flakes falling from the sky. Also, half the fun for me is tracking. And it looks like we might actually have something to track this week! 

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

6z GFS continued improvement for Friday to this untrained eye.  Cold as always is the big issue as I see it

The biggest issue is any phasing appears to occur well offshore. Even the CMC trended that way. Still some time, but given the progressive nature of the flow, probably not happening.

We will get our wind though.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Didn't get a chance to look at Gefs but I liked the change at h5 in with the  Eps . It has the ns sw diving a bit further south and west and  earlier. That's what we want to see .

Looks like 06z continues the trend...getting close to some interaction with the ss wave on the latest run.  Maybe this is a long shot but it will keep me interested as long as we keep seeing baby steps.  If we can start to see the 2 interact just a little bit I would think we may see the ns dive further south as a result.

PvYKEco.jpg

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49 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The biggest issue is any phasing appears to occur well offshore. Even the CMC trended that way. Still some time, but given the progressive nature of the flow, probably not happening.

We will get our wind though.

Cape Cod crush job incoming. 

Maybe the wind can blow the moss of my trees.  So wet, even after the recent dry several days.

Meanwhile, the last 30 day AO state and amplitude suggests a warm March. 

The CPC recently updated the 30 day outlook to mild across wide areas of the country for March.   So, for now the focus becomes what of April?  Some analogs suggest a cooler April after a mild March.  Personally bring me dryness and sun in April and no eternal 15 days in a row of dark depressing cloudy days.   

    

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4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

One thing that is encouraging up to this point is that things have trended in a positive way over the last 48 hrs basically across all guidance. Which goes against the trend this winter. Famous last words. Hope 12z doesn't lay an egg. 

Agreed.  Let's see if this is a trend in the right direction or just a blip.  25% chance on EPS 4-5 days out is good for us this winter, but that does not mean it snows.

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