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March Medium/Long Range Disco


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3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO.  Some flurry action this Saturday.

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-total_snow_10to1-3006400.png

Man, no!! Now look, if we are gonna fail, then fail properly...just go for the historical record (or at least not such an occurrence recorded since 1882). of not even a trace of snow recorded in February. But of course...I could see us finding a way to fail at failing, lol

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Man, no!! Now look, if we are gonna fail, then fail properly...just go for the historical record (or at least not such an occurrence recorded since 1882). of not even a trace of snow recorded in February. But of course...I could see us finding a way to fail at failing, lol
Imagine weenie moving to Worcester this winter hoping to have an epic winter ed3820cda7d46097159c9fd18359d095.jpg
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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Bring on La Nina. I will take my chances lol.

Lol with some luck 2018 could have been a good year. Every so often you can get a good Nina but that might have been the year and we just got screwed. Most places around us had above normal snow that year. 

Frankly in the last 40 years our odds of a big year in anything other than a moderate nino are very low. It used to be a neutral was a pretty good enso state also but lately they mostly end up crap too. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol with some luck 2018 could have been a good year. Every so often you can get a good Nina but that might have been the year and we just got screwed. Most places around us had above normal snow that year. 

Frankly in the last 40 years our odds of a big year in anything other than a moderate nino are very low. It used to be a neutral was a pretty good enso state also but lately they mostly end up crap too. 

Agreed. And it actually was "good" here. Its all relative. Slightly above climo avg snowfall imby. Way better than last winter. And the bomb cyclone chase in Jan at the beach made it more memorable than it otherwise would have been for me.

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These maps have looked like this for more than 2 months and resulted in zero snow. It really is time to move on.
What else can be said that hasn't already been said, but move on to the 70° probability maps from here on out. We are more likely to score on those than these past 3 months of snowless maps.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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In two weeks, it will be over one way or another.  People who think it is truly over are probably correct, but those people have also stopped looking at it until next year and could care less what I post.  Plus looking at weather maps gives me something to do on my long commute home.  Left the house at 5:30 am and getting home around 9 tonight.    Long day.  

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28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

In two weeks, it will be over one way or another.  People who think it is truly over are probably correct, but those people have also stopped looking at it until next year and could care less what I post.  Plus looking at weather maps gives me something to do on my long commute home.  Left the house at 5:30 am and getting home around 9 tonight.    Long day.  

Maybe if you didn't spend your day posting worthless probability maps on a weather board all day you could leave earlier

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10 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

You know this winter has been bad, when nobody has mentioned the  “Sun Angle” at all in their posts .

Wrt weather, sun angle is completely irrelevant since there is a perpetually zero chance of snow. 

Now if you are talking D3 absorption and better moods and such, it is significant.

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5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Bring on La Nina. I will take my chances lol.

Man NO!!!!! La nothin'! If I had to choose between a nina like 2016/17 or 2017/18...and a winter like this, I'm tempted to pick this winter. See low snow totals + folks just east/northeast of ya cashing in feels worse than low snow totals and everybody getting screwed. The close misses are the heartbreakers...and la ninas, by nature, seem to have more of those than the other ENSO states.

Best place in MD to be during a la nina is the beaches (or perhaps Northeast MD). Otherwise, heartbreak...

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3 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Maybe if you didn't spend your day posting worthless probability maps on a weather board all day you could leave earlier

You don’t need to read them. Or better yet put him on ignore if it bothers you so much. It’s much better than being a complete jack off. 

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WB 6Z GEFS still showing don’t give up hope during the second week of March.  To make myself aa clear as I can there is 0% chances of an event through next Thursday.   After that, we have a slight chance for about a week.  That is all that I think that is advertised.  Luck would help.  You have to understand that probability maps are a snapshot. There is no cumulative effect.  For example, whether I flip a coin once or a thousand times, there is a 50% of getting heads or tails each time.  The difference with the snow probability maps is that every six hours you get a little closer to the target period with updated weather data input.  So it will be interesting to see if the probs increase over the next week for the second week of March and whether other models also show it. I would only note that I am not remembering a period recently where GEFS has shown some signals, albeit weak for the same time period two days in a row.

88BA650B-113E-4B21-BBD0-081445E55490.png

38621165-AA13-40ED-BB3E-71EE429E0E7E.png

257EB7AF-3C4F-4478-954B-DF11285D63CC.png

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2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS still showing don’t give up hope during the second week of March.  To make myself aa clear as I can there is 0% chances of an event through next Thursday.   After that, we have a slight chance for about a week.  That is all that I think that is advertised.  Luck would help.  You have to understand that probability maps are a snapshot. There is no cumulative effect.  For example, whether I flip a coin once or a thousand times, there is a 50% of getting heads or tails each time.  The difference with the snow probability maps is that every six hours you get a little closer to the target period with updated weather data input.  So it will be interesting to see if the probs increase over the next week for the second week of March and whether other models also show it. I would only note that I am not remembering a period recently where GEFS has shown some signals, albeit weak for the same time period two days in a row.

88BA650B-113E-4B21-BBD0-081445E55490.png

38621165-AA13-40ED-BB3E-71EE429E0E7E.png

257EB7AF-3C4F-4478-954B-DF11285D63CC.png

My wild guess is that those probs are simply created by dividing the number of members that show 3” of snow by the total number of members. Since each member is nothing more than a computer sim of what might happen, there is no actual probability involved the solution it presents. Therefore, there is no real probability at all. It’s just a probability built upon a collection of  “possible” solutions. 
 

When you flip a coin, one of two things is definitely going to happen. With these ensemble weather predictions you have no definite result.

Its a free world and we all should be able to do things that we like as long as there’s no harm to anyone else. So I’m not ragging you for posting them. I’m just saying that I don’t think they shown any actual probability.

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