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Wednesday, February 26, 2020 (overnight into Thursday) Low Topped Convection Potential


weatherwiz
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25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When we really get into summer and start forecasting convection 5-6 days out at least we know that will happen and pan out. 

yeah most of the time, anyway. Heh. I'm just happy we are making baby steps to comfortable, outdoorsy weather. Convective fun is still a ways off..besides your chase

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7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What total joke this thread was...I mean really???  This is the first I’ve been here...glad I only wasted 30 seconds on this.  Wiz looking for a rumble of thunder in February, lol. 

Certainly was a joke...just like the hundreds of posts throughout the winter stating "winter is coming", "changes are coming", "there's our pattern change at day 10". Same too about posts about a big cold shot first week of March. . 

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38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly was a joke...just like the hundreds of posts throughout the winter stating "winter is coming", "changes are coming", "there's our pattern change at day 10". Same too about posts about a big cold shot first week of March. . 

Only posts like that made a month out naturally won’t always verify. Apples to oranges when a thread fails two days out.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Only posts like that made a month out naturally won’t always verify. Apples to oranges when a thread fails two days out.

ehhh it's all in good fun and jabbing. 

I kinda jumped the gun on this...overlooked (or well didn't look) a few things which if I had I probably wouldn't have made this thread. I focused too much on dynamics/lapse rates and didn't even bother to look at theta-e/llvl moisture. 

but it's also the tone of things...I like sticking my head out and trying to make actual forecasts/calls and get away from the notion of "if this happens then this will result". I notice that quite a bit on twitter and I think those posts put the wrong ideas in peoples head. It's not the person's fault who is putting forth the information though...it's how the information is being perceived.  

Even the past month with all these "signals" on the EPS about changes...were those changes really of any merit? When you take into account the structure hemispheric pattern that has been place I don't think any of them ever did. The biggest thing (in my mind was) a lack of a mechanism to disrupt this pattern/circulation to make such changes go through.

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