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Wednesday, February 26, 2020 (overnight into Thursday) Low Topped Convection Potential


weatherwiz
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A vigorous piece of shortwave energy approaches late Wednesday associated with a strengthening MLJ in excess of 100 knots along with a strengthening LLJ. A plume of rather steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the sfc low combined with a plume of WAA/theta-e will help yield sufficient elevated instability to yield the development of a low topped squall line southwest of southern New England. conditions favor this line to move through New England during the overnight hours yielding the potential for small hail and damaging winds. 

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9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I can't wait till winter 20-21. Time to take a long weather hybernation from Apr-Nov. 

:snowman::snowman::snowman::snowman::snowman::snowman:

So exciting. We can already see climate models go out that far. Pretty soon we’ll start seeing cold invading Canada on the gfs and Ray coming out of hibernation with his initial thoughts. Pumped!

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Dude is gonna be let down all season over and over again. How many times does he park himself at a random rest stop and busts out his tripod camera not noticing a honking car of naked chested girls because he is too occupied with an approaching line of dark clouds that ends up squeezing out one rogue clap of thunder (when it could have been female cheeks clapping on his weenie instead)...which ultimately spirals his emotions and pony pail into deep a depressive angered state. Never fails. 

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

It's creeping

image.png.fdb11abbe550d11c2da59cfc5ff12041.png

The ceiling of this convective event isn't very high... Even in the marginal area, instability/SFC instability looks rather limited, which should cap the potential for strong storms. For NE, the low seems to track too far south for any appreciable surge of warm air to allow for more instability... I don't see any models showing any organized convection moving through the NE region (HRRR, 3KM NAM, WRFs on TropicalTidbits)... Only stratiform rain, it seems. I would keep expectations very low...

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