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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nothing's gonna save the interior barring April '97 redux or some crazy string of back to back 12"+ storms....but it can become a little less embarrassing if they can snag a 10-15 incher on the way out....ORH is at like 35"....they need to almost double that to hit normal (69").

Ah yeah wasn’t thinking normal but out of full ratter territory.  More into like below normal totals that have been seen before.  BDL is still within striking distance with a biggie but the valley would be tougher there.

You guys have the climo to pull biggies out of overall poor patterns of things break right.  

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ah yeah wasn’t thinking normal but out of full ratter territory.  More into like below normal totals that have been seen before.  BDL is still within striking distance with a biggie but the valley would be tougher there.

You guys have the climo to pull biggies out of overall poor patterns of things break right.  

Yeah I'd be interested to see what a place like BTV is for 18"+ storms....probably much lower return than ORH or somewhere in E MA.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'd be interested to see what a place like BTV is for 18"+ storms....probably much lower return than ORH or somewhere in E MA.

Oh it has to be MUCH less up north here.  BTV can do like 100" in a season without a 12-inch event in one sitting lol.

Part of me bets ORH has to have one of the better return rates of big events for an official climate station.

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48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

UKMET's decent too 

Will was mentioning a few days ago we'd might want to watch the 24th and indeed, it was in many ensembles then, prior and since... It's probably a rare thing to see this particular threat be inside of 120 hours in this particular year - ha!

Actually, the Ukie is crap or nothing for most of SNE.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's really close though....synoptically....it kind of torches the lower midlevels, but it's not far from a bigger solution.

Yeah, one should not look at a 120 hour UKMET and take thermal fields verbatim -

It's an interesting track and factoring known biases, the UKMET's decent too 

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, one should not look at a 120 hour UKMET and take thermal fields verbatim -

It's an interesting track and factoring known biases, the UKMET's decent too 

Lol reminds of when Kev says a model is good and everyone is like no that’s not what it shows and the retort is “but when you add in its biases it’s a big hit”... not saying that’s happening here Tip, just gave me a chuckle.   

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'd be interested to see what a place like BTV is for 18"+ storms....probably much lower return than ORH or somewhere in E MA.

The data I've gathered from UCC and Climod show BTV with 14 storms of 18"+ in 96 year POR (31 years missing early 20th) and ORH with 20 such events in 71 years, close to 2X the frequency of BTV though their respective biggest (ORH 34.5, BTV 35.3) are pretty much the same.

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12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The data I've gathered from UCC and Climod show BTV with 14 storms of 18"+ in 96 year POR (31 years missing early 20th) and ORH with 20 such events in 71 years, close to 2X the frequency of BTV though their respective biggest (ORH 34.5, BTV 35.3) are pretty much the same.

Yeah that’s what my first reaction was saying.  Twice the frequency makes sense given proximity to the deeper moisture source.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

The data I've gathered from UCC and Climod show BTV with 14 storms of 18"+ in 96 year POR (31 years missing early 20th) and ORH with 20 such events in 71 years, close to 2X the frequency of BTV though their respective biggest (ORH 34.5, BTV 35.3) are pretty much the same.

The ORH numbers are also probably a little  low ball due to the ASOS outage during the 1995-2002 period. I believe there are 5 events of 18”+ in that period. 

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16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Lol reminds of when Kev says a model is good and everyone is like no that’s not what it shows and the retort is “but when you add in its biases it’s a big hit”... not saying that’s happening here Tip, just gave me a chuckle.   

Perfectly fair assessment of when it is okay to 'apply biases' and when something only thinks it is - 

agreed   :lol:

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14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ORH numbers are also probably a little  low ball due to the ASOS outage during the 1995-2002 period. I believe there are 5 events of 18”+ in that period. 

The 20 events I noted include 12/96, 4/97, 2/01 and 3/01.  Of the 20, 9 have come this century and 4 more in the '90s.  The ORH ratio, about 2 per 7 years, is essentially the same as Farmington (Maine),which has had 35 such events in 127 years.  13 of those came this century, with 9 in the "oughts."

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9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The 20 events I noted include 12/96, 4/97, 2/01 and 3/01.  Of the 20, 9 have come this century and 4 more in the '90s.  The ORH ratio, about 2 per 7 years, is essentially the same as Farmington (Maine),which has had 35 such events in 127 years.  13 of those came this century, with 9 in the "oughts."

Ahh, ok...good to hear those were included....the only one missing then would have been 12/23/97.

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1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Same place as yesterday's & the day before. Hoping the sun pokes through and we can at least Salvage a couple hours of warmth from this supposed torch.

Should be a nice late afternoon/evening...I'm hoping anyway. Trying to do some shrimp on the BBQ later.

 

It's all a dream come tomorrow.

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