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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

I am not sure I would call that a step back IMO.

not sure what the individuals looked like at 0z or even 6z, but there were some good looking "snow weenie" numbers on that 12z run for SNE....Better than this entire year, so who knows..

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breaking down those individuals... I see 12/50 (~25%) that would be  Significant events... and about another half dozen or so that would be moderate... with another half dozen to 7 or 8 or so that are very close to one of those two categories.

So basically about 50% chance of a decent event based on those members 

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8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

breaking down those individuals... I see 12/50 (~25%) that would be  Significant events... and about another half dozen or so that would be moderate... with another half dozen to 7 or 8 or so that are very close to one of those two categories.

So basically about 50% chance of a decent event based on those members 

I was doing the same thing. My gut says whiff but there are enough impactful members there for me to keep tracking non-emotionally, yet obsessively.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Northern stream digs more this run, but the ridge to the west rolls over the top and affects the ability to phase the southern stream....the downstream ridging ahead of the system is blunted because of that. We get spacing issues.

Uncanny ability of this season to engineer bare ground.

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I think we need to at least hold serve tonight....if it trends notably worse, I'm not sure it's going to come back. We're in the 96 hour timeframe tonight.

NAM is definitely teeing it up at 84 hours...more than other guidance. But it's the NAM.

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