FPizz Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 From the post earlier this year, I think that Jim Hughes used to post here and on eastern years ago, but then got run off the site from people bashing him. I believe he may have been from West Virginia. I remember that name though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 Worth a read from the MA forum regarding the +QBO in relation to Nina winters which follow a Nino. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 That would be great news if the H would form there and orient itself right. The Pacific really can drive the bus here in otherwise unfavorable NAO/AO conditions. I would really love to see the stars align and see us get a favorable period with the Pacific and the Atlantic. It surely will happen again at some point before the earth stops spinning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 More positive news from MEM to BNA. Depending on wavelength and the like southeast Tenn could still be in the SER screw job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Latest QBO coming in positive. The -QBO appears to have failed like a few years back. Looks like a long mild winter. Might as well look to Dixey Alley action. Wake me up in March for basketball and storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Yeah that's about as La Niña signal result as it gets... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted September 26, 2020 Author Share Posted September 26, 2020 I wish I could react with both the #sad and #thanks reactions to the above. But I only get one, lol Now that October is closing in, it will be interesting to see what the NAO averages out for that month. We have Isotherm's statement late last winter that (I think) 2 out of the 3 upcoming winters would feature, on average a -NAO. I think Tellico also mentioned something like that based on maybe the QBO??? and that it would be interesting to see that feature wit ha La Nina, but I don't remember exactly what it was and couldn't find it. The post I started this thread with, looks at the NAO in Oct. Haven't worked myself up this winter to the sort of effort I put into that previous post, so this is all I have to add for now. We must hope for the following pattern in early - mid Jan, lol: As John said though .008% chance of it, lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 But is the atmosphere acting like a La Niña? It seems like the actual pattern has been out of phase with El and La more often than not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 CANSIPS is pretty much Windspeed's post above...wall-to-wall. It actually perpetuates next week's pattern shift for about the next five months. LOL. Don't know if that happens, but wouldn't be the first time an AK low was difficult to dislodge. Again, very important to remember that shoulder season modeling is sketchy - and I say that if the modeling output is good or bad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Looking at those maps, they may still be an improvement over last winter for us all and the one before that for everyone but the Tri-Cities and far eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 The CFS is surprisingly cool for DJF right now, and it shows a warm to cold situation with temp anomalies being near to slightly above normal for January and below normal for February after a moderately warm December. This would be a much better Jan/February set up than we've had in years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 8:06 AM, Kentucky said: I wonder if there is any relationship with the historic Cali fire season this year ?Jeff or any met,anyone?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 9:06 AM, Kentucky said: I think that the npac difference may help direct the pac hp more east and polward than the typical ninas . May research and see how npac looked back in 95 and 2010 at this juncture. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 My only thoughts are Bearish. What's new right? North Pac certainly helps with cold air delivery - just not here! OK the Mid South maybe. But I forecast a winter of malaise for the actual Tennessee Valley. Farther northeast (MRX/TRI) could do ok. I have strong doubts anything of note will happen HSV to CHA. I know it only takes one bowling ball, but nah. Forecast model failures recently point to the trend. SER likes to hang on, even w/o an upper ridge. Just stay warm. Eventually cold air will bleed southeast a few times. Then I'll forecast drizzle and 38 for KCHA. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Latest European weeklies line up with the tropical convection for the last forever. Except for next week's cold front, it's mainly warmer than normal weeks. Especially weeks 3-6 have a screaming +ABNA pattern. That's not super warm here, but no way to deliver cold. Warmest anomalies are north and west. I would think it's the secondary pattern. Would last until about Thanksgiving. Then the primary pattern in La Nina would be that stubborn SER. Neither is really cold here, which is not a surprise in La Nina. Guess I'm saying the same thing over and over. Mainly warm. Hope for a well timed miracle. One of those Plains cold outbreaks bleeds southeast correctly timed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Latest European weeklies line up with the tropical convection for the last forever. Except for next week's cold front, it's mainly warmer than normal weeks. Especially weeks 3-6 have a screaming +ABNA pattern. That's not super warm here, but no way to deliver cold. Warmest anomalies are north and west. I would think it's the secondary pattern. Would last until about Thanksgiving. Then the primary pattern in La Nina would be that stubborn SER. Neither is really cold here, which is not a surprise in La Nina. Guess I'm saying the same thing over and over. Mainly warm. Hope for a well timed miracle. One of those Plains cold outbreaks bleeds southeast correctly timed.So basically just like last year, and the year before, and the year before that, etc........ 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 17-18 had that wicked cold snap right after Christmas, but we went bone dry. If we could score a cold shot like that again, might have a shot. Rest of the winter stunk, but I remember a squirrel walking across the creek that I jog near - surface was frozen solid. Rivers here froze as well. We had the early snow here in 18-19. So NE TN, has had its moments...but consistently cold weather seems improbable to me this winter. That said, there are a cluster of analogs which are cold given this set up. We want that warm water in the NE PAC to hold I think. Might displace the cold out of the northern Rockies from time to time. The Weeklies(which not reach into December do seem to signal high latitude blocking reforming later in November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted October 23, 2020 Author Share Posted October 23, 2020 Maybe we get a No Flood February NFF (patent pending) and call it a win!? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Maybe we get a No Flood February NFF (patent pending) and call it a win!? 30” of rain the last 2 February combined. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 Hunter Ward has posted his winter forecast: https://www.ashevillewx.com/weatherupdate/2020/10/29/ashevillewx-2020-2021-winter-weather-outlook?fbclid=IwAR0UQmpWK_YXn9Klz_SPW011J7qohWOmmmt2-puoQWwI4rPiXiFfrr3mgpc Obviously for NC, but he does talk about the mts as well. Also, apparently the UKMET monthly model (from Ben Noll's website as seen on Ward's forecast) sees some opportunities for Abv. Average snowfall for western parts of our area. Dauntless Ray has his thoughts out too, again for western NC: http://asheweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf Seems like the overall thought is more opportunity for upslope, NW flow snow for favored areas in western NC, at least more opportunity than we have seen in recent years. Hopefully that can translate to more NW flow and maybe a clipper or two for us. While I was poking around on Ben Noll's twitter I found this: If there were to be more convection over the western Indian Ocean (8 - 1 MJO region) that would definitely be an interesting twist to La Nina. To be totally fair, equating 2021 to 1996 by looking at one RMM diagram and one model's seasonal forecast is vintage snow weenie and like trying to shove to pieces of a puzzle (thaty may not even be from the same puzzle) together because I JUST WANT THEM TO FIT/ WHY WON'T YOU FIT &^%$$^&*(&^%%$ But we must have hope so that when @mempho comes calling we can be reaped in the fullness of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Skimming Ray I like it. He's basically mild. However I agree that the secondary or tertiary pattern this winter opens the door for upslope - between bouts of SER or other meh. If so the local ski areas really need the business after covid and mild wx last year. My interpretation of the Ben Noll graphic, dominant +ABNA which is not great but also not SER. It's AN heights Siberia and Canada, with BN heights Bering Sea and right here in the Southeast US. However the source region is on fire in Canada including western Canada. 38 and cold rain Chattanooga. Take it to the bank! I am also watching pressure anomalies in Siberia, China, Canada and the USA. If the northern ones are AN and the southern ones BN, bullish cold unsettled. If the northern is BN, locked up cold air, we're probably AN. I believe the snow extent stuff is absolutely worthless without pressure and height context. Two ways to get AN snow and they have very different outcomes. 1. Low press Siberia and Canada achieves AN snow due to unsettled weather. Stays AN mid-latitudes with cold locked up. Bearish. 2. High press Siberia and Canada achieves AN snow due to cold but little qpf. BN press/heights mid-latitudes invite that cold to spill down in later weeks and months. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml I check this site for pressure etc. https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ is the old Rutgers snow site. Bottom line: No pressure context makes Cohen's snow stuff worthless. Much respect to him, and he's a nice guy in person, but I need pressure and heights. Last few days have been the bullish set-up. However 7-day and 30-day smoothed charts are quite bearish. If I can't have snow, I guess look fwd to severe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 European Monthly charts are pretty warm most of winter. December has a small Southeast US cold cluster; but, the Western Canada source region is on fire. February and March are endless SER. Hopefully the overnight severe is up in Hoosier Alley. January appears to the best shot at a good secondary pattern. Clusters are below. The 48% has blocking and a path to deliver at least seasonably cold Arctic air. That'd do it! I'm assuming these are available to the public now. If not, please to not re-share. Certainly no commercial use. OK for academic use. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 All it takes is getting timing right for one or two events to make it a decent winter. Those have just been hard to come by except for small slivers of the forum area for a few years now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 On 11/5/2020 at 12:14 PM, John1122 said: All it takes is getting timing right for one or two events to make it a decent winter. Those have just been hard to come by except for small slivers of the forum area for a few years now. One thing is for sure, we are getting pretty dry here in the Middle TN area. Need a good soaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 I smell a AN November coming on... Maybe that'll help with timing of colder blasts at climatological best opportunities of winter. Then again it seems over the last several years the correlations that seemed reliable in years past aren't as reliable today.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Lately November to Winter has broken opposite of normal, maybe this one will too. However I doubt it very much. I expect a few cold periods in an overall AN winter. We just need the cold to be in place when moisture arrives for a change. It's been crazily hard for that to happen in the Tennessee Valley as a whole lately. The deep south has been more snowy/frozen precip friendly than our forum region the past couple of years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 4 hours ago, John1122 said: Lately November to Winter has broken opposite of normal, maybe this one will too. However I doubt it very much. I expect a few cold periods in an overall AN winter. We just need the cold to be in place when moisture arrives for a change. It's been crazily hard for that to happen in the Tennessee Valley as a whole lately. The deep south has been more snowy/frozen precip friendly than our forum region the past couple of years. John, if we see anything wintry, it will be sleet or fzr imo. Arctic fronts that stall once it encounters the se ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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