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March 2020


snowman19
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Despite today's chill, New York City is on track to finish February with a mean temperature of 40.1°. That would tie 1954 for the 7th warmest February on record. 2020 was also the fourth year since 2010 where the monthly mean temperature was 40.0° or above and the 10th such year on record.

February 2020 also saw near record to record low monthly snowfall in much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Monthly snowfall totals through 4 pm included:

Allentown: Trace (tied monthly record low)
Boston: 0.5" (9th February case with < 1" snowfall and 3rd since 2010)
Bridgeport: Trace (tied monthly record low)
Islip: 0.0" (old record: Trace)
New York City-Central Park: Trace (record: 0.0", 1998)
New York City-JFK: Trace (tied monthly record low)
New York City-LGA: Trace (tied monthly record low)
Newark: Trace (tied monthly record low)
Philadelphia: Trace (tied monthly record low)
Providence: Trace (tied monthly record low)

Starting tomorrow milder air will move into the region. Temperatures could surge into the 60s during the middle of next week as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -16.14 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.557. The preliminary February average was +3.231. Only 1990 (+3.402) and 1989 (+3.279) had February averages of +3.000 or above.

The preliminary winter average for the AO was +1.960. 82% days were positive, including 31% that had a figure of +3.000 or above. The exceptional strength of the polar vortex and AO+ highlighted the uncertain nature of linkage, if it exists at all, between a solar minimum and Arctic blocking.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 8, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of the second week of March.

On February 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.226.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions will likely see temperatures run 3° to 5° above normal for March.

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On 2/27/2020 at 7:51 PM, MJO812 said:

No point posting these anymore. Winter is over. 

Spent the day in Binghamton with my daughter who is thinking of attending ( I'm pushing Rutgers for both tuition and and tradition ) and we ran into several bad snow squalls in the Poconos, saw some areas with snow cover ( but not much ) and had flurries all day on campus. But even they said there wasn't the usual amount of snow this year. However, after enjoying mild temps all winter here, it was cold AF up there, like 21 degrees in the late morning. Not used to it.

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3 hours ago, doncat said:

I like my March's and April's to be cold and stormy...Plenty of time thereafter for sunshine and warmth.

Trout season is short down here; we need mild weather to get a shot at them before it turns too warm; stormy weather and flooded streams aren't good. Essentially, once winter is over I only care if it rains enough to avoid drought. Otherwise, I am happy to never see a T-storm, hurricane, nor'easter or ocean groundswell the whole season. Need enough rain for the garden, that's it.

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite today's chill, New York City is on track to finish February with a mean temperature of 40.1°. That would tie 1954 for the 7th warmest February on record. 2020 was also the fourth year since 2010 where the monthly mean temperature was 40.0° or above and the 10th such year on record.

February 2020 also saw near record to record low monthly snowfall in much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Monthly snowfall totals through 4 pm included:

Allentown: Trace (tied monthly record low)
Boston: 0.5" (9th February case with < 1" snowfall and 3rd since 2010)
Bridgeport: Trace (tied monthly record low)
Islip: 0.0" (old record: Trace)
New York City-Central Park: Trace (record: 0.0", 1998)
New York City-JFK: Trace (tied monthly record low)
New York City-LGA: Trace (tied monthly record low)
Newark: Trace (tied monthly record low)
Philadelphia: Trace (tied monthly record low)
Providence: Trace (tied monthly record low)

Starting tomorrow milder air will move into the region. Temperatures could surge into the 60s during the middle of next week as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -16.14 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.557. The preliminary February average was +3.231. Only 1990 (+3.402) and 1989 (+3.279) had February averages of +3.000 or above.

The preliminary winter average for the AO was +1.960. 82% days were positive, including 31% that had a figure of +3.000 or above. The exceptional strength of the polar vortex and AO+ highlighted the uncertain nature of linkage, if it exists at all, between a solar minimum and Arctic blocking.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 8, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of the second week of March.

On February 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.226.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions will likely see temperatures run 3° to 5° above normal for March.

I would be careful predicting 3 - 5 degrees above normal for March IMO especially if EPO goes negative as forecasted.............

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21 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would be careful predicting 3 - 5 degrees above normal for March IMO especially if EPO goes negative as forecasted.............

During the second half of March, the EPO is much less a factor due to the shorter wave lengths. For example, during the March 16-31, 1981-2019 period, New York City had a mean temperature of 45.1°. During that period, the mean temperature for EPO cases < 0 was 45.0° and the average for those with an EPO of -1.000 or below was 44.7°.

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The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 4degs. AN(used 26/40 for today).

The first 17 days of March are averaging(06Z,GFS) 43degs., [37/49]or about 2 degs. AN.       Slight chances for snow on the 7th. and the 11th.     The models should take to rolling Craps, instead of predicting the atmosphere. lol.

The next 30 days and next 90 days look super similar to each other with a SE Ridge-Mid Atlantic Ridge and the attendant AN T's east of the Mississippi.       In fact the whole NH could have the same thing said about it, except the Polar regions head from BN to just Normal during the next three months, every other anomalous zone stays the same.

27* here at 6am., overnight low was 26*.     30* by 9am.         32* by about 10am.       34* at 11am.         36* at Noon.       38* at 1pm.       43* by 3pm.       46* at 4pm.         42* by 7pm.

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 4degs. AN(used 26/40 for today).

The first 17 days of March are averaging(06Z,GFS) 43degs., [37/49]or about 2 degs. AN.       Slight chances for snow on the 7th. and the 11th.     The models should take to rolling Craps, instead of predicting the atmosphere. lol.

The next 30 days and next 90 days look super similar to each other with a SE Ridge-Mid Atlantic Ridge and the attendant AN T's east of the Mississippi.       In fact the whole NH could have the same thing said about it, except the Polar regions head from BN to just Normal during the next three months, every other anomalous zone stays the same.

27* here at 6am., overnight low was 26*.

This might be useful for illustrating the magnitude of the GFS's cold bias. 

For comparison, you noted that the 6z GFS has a 3/1-17 mean temperature of 43.0 degrees for NYC.

The multi-model blend I use in my sensitivity analyses shows 44.4 degrees for the same period. 

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11 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I would be careful predicting 3 - 5 degrees above normal for March IMO especially if EPO goes negative as forecasted.............

EPO has been mainly positive and the dips to negative much less in strength that forecast.   I doubt that changes given the persistence of this pattern

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Milder air began overspreading the region today after a brisk start. Temperatures could surge into the 60s during mid-week as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal.

Cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front with the potential to bring some snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a measurable snowfall is possible. Afterward, there is growing support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -17.47 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.991.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 9, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of the second week of March.

On February 29, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.951 (RMM). The February 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.439.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

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The next 8 days are averaging 46degs., or 6degs., AN.

40* here at 6am.     Was 38* overnight.   42* at 7am.      44* by 9am.      47* at 10am.        48* by Noon.         Up steadily to 53* by 8pm.       Peaked at 55** at 9:30pm.

Because of the outlook for the month, we might as well remember these landmarks: 

March Normal:  42.5

10th. Place: 46.8, +4.3. 

  1st. Place: 51.1, +8.6.

Now here comes a '06Z, GFS' spitball.      The average T for the next 17 days is 38degs., or 3degs. BN with a 20"snowstorm near the  11th---12th.     After the 'storm' T averages 32degs.!      This is similar to an earlier run that immediately corrected.

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