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Mid-week potential of something somewhere


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The cutoffs in N IL in the forecasts really make messaging storms like this tricky. A 25 mile change impacts a huge population area.

I will say this is the best the "Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast" graphic has looked for me all winter, especially 36ish hours from the event... Fingers crossed...

https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm grasping for straws here #desperation 

huh? am I missing something? This is from ILX:AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG   
THE IL RIVER AND 3-5 INCHES OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES, WITH   
OVER 6 INCHES NW OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES WHERE WINTER STORM   
WATCHES POSTED MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING.  

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4 minutes ago, Baum said:

huh? am I missing something? This is from ILX:AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG   
THE IL RIVER AND 3-5 INCHES OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES, WITH   
OVER 6 INCHES NW OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES WHERE WINTER STORM   
WATCHES POSTED MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING.  

I'm the along the IL river part where cutoff is very sharp. Lol. I'm definitely not sitting comfortably esp if GFS is right. Nam/euro are decent here but I'm skeptical for now

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This is the first time all winter that I have felt it's more than just a hail mary pass to get 6+ imby.  There have only been 1 or 2 other times where it was even a remote possibility if everything went right, but I would almost give it 50/50 odds at this point. 

Temps are marginal of course, especially through most of Tuesday.  Duration looks fairly long though with periods of moderate/heavy rates possible and a period of lake enhancement.  So overall I am optimistic for at least a moderate hit in the worst case scenario, with potential to get toward major category.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is the first time all winter that I have felt it's more than just a hail mary pass to get 6+ imby.  There have only been 1 or 2 other times where it was even a remote possibility if everything went right, but I would almost give it 50/50 odds at this point. 

Temps are marginal of course, especially through most of Tuesday.  Duration looks fairly long though with periods of moderate/heavy rates possible and a period of lake enhancement.  So overall I am optimistic for at least a moderate hit in the worst case scenario, with potential to get toward major category.

I feel like you and I switched souls now. Suddenly, I'm the one worried about the weakening trend while you are the voice of confidence. 

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