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NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21


Holston_River_Rambler
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Oak Ridge is reporting heavy snow with 1/4th mile vis, hope they are getting some accumulation out of it for our posters from that area. 

1.75 inches here now, it's snowing around 3/4ths inch per hour rates on average but it's more 1.5 inch per hour then when it backs off it's compacting and melting from below about as fast as it can fall. I wish we'd managed a day in the 20s before this moved in instead of a day in the 50s.

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Yes new lift is coming out of the Mid South. One can deduce it on both satellite and radar trends. It's back of the cloud band, not morally ideal, but it's bullish this time.

GSP NWS put out a late morning AFD that explains this upper feature. Of course they talk about sensible weather their CWA. However their discussion of a new baroclinic leaf coming out of the Mid South is quite relevant to our Region.

Also the subtle surface wave has formed in South Georgia. Surface winds should continue to or maintain backing/northerly. KCHA probably still can't be helped, but others will continue to smile this event.

Bottom line, I would believe those radar simulations for this afternoon.

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Yes new lift is coming out of the Mid South. One can deduce it on both satellite and radar trends. It's back of the cloud band, not morally ideal, but it's bullish this time.
GSP NWS put out a late morning AFD that explains this upper feature. Of course they talk about sensible weather their CWA. However their discussion of a new baroclinic leaf coming out of the Mid South is quite relevant to our Region.
Also the subtle surface wave has formed in South Georgia. Surface winds should continue to or maintain backing/northerly. KCHA probably still can't be helped, but others will continue to smile this event.
Bottom line, I would believe those radar simulations for this afternoon.


“Otherwise, the latest water vapor imagery indicates a speed max
digging across the Corn Belt, with a baroclinic leaf structure
extending from the Arklatx through the Mid-South. Thus, cyclogenesis
is well underway in the vicinity of the western Gulf Coast, and
resultant increase in frontogenesis and QG forcing will allow the
precip shield. to continue progressing northeast across the CWA.”


.
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39 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Spoke with the wife in Greeneville, said snow is starting to stick on roads and temp has dropped below 32

Obviously accumulations vary depending on the surface with these marginal temps and warm ground, but I have nearly an 1 inch on my car.  Still coming down at a decent rate, but it’s having a hard time adding to the accumulation. It takes heavy snow rates to really add to the accumulation. The time of day didn’t help here either.

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HRRR nailed the stubborn 40 in KCHA. NAM seemed to do better points north and northwest. Euro caught on so late it just gets partial credit. LOL at the GFS.

Still rain Chattanooga Central Business District. Still figure it ends light snow (no stick) suburbs and even Chattanooga proper outside the Downtown heat island.

That's OK we got ours February 8, that gorgeous Saturday morning.

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