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NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21


Holston_River_Rambler
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34 showing in my car, and it's a definite mix of rain and snow hitting my windshield.  It's seems to be trying very hard to completely switch to snow here, and I'm surprised to see it happening so early.  Some very big, fat flakes mixing in, and they are easily visible even in the low light of early morning. 

Note:  Most elevations in/near my area are 1050-1300'

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3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I agree. I'm right at 1300 feet and almost every hill I crossed heading north on HWY 27 that put me up even 200 ft there was a temp drop and snow. 

Similar back this way. I had a mix most of the way into Lewisburg. However, when I went over the ridge at about 1100' it was almost all snow. 

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34 showing in my car, and it's a definite mix of rain and snow hitting my windshield.  It's seems to be trying very hard to completely switch to snow here, and I'm surprised to see it happening so early.  Some very big, fat flakes mixing in, and they are easily visible even in the low light of early morning. 

Note:  Most elevations in/near my area are 1050-1300'

 

Where’s your location Jay? I cannot remember. Glad to see you posting again.

 

 

.

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Thanks.  Glad to be back in the neighborhood.
I'm about 10 miles east of Sevierville, between Douglas Lake and the foothills. 

That’s right. Have you had any mountain wave issues this year? I noticed the last time I went to Gatlinburg that there’s a lot of tree damage on the Spur and on the Gatlinburg bypass.


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4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


That’s right. Have you had any mountain wave issues this year? I noticed the last time I went to Gatlinburg that there’s a lot of tree damage on the Spur and on the Gatlinburg bypass.


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I live in a very unique area when it comes to those events, and I've tried to understand it, but when those occur the wind is usually almost completely calm at home.  I can drive 10-15 minutes closer to the mountains, and the winds will increase exponentially.  I guess if these mtn. winds are true "waves" like in water, my house must be located in the crest or ridge, and not in the trough at the bottom of the mountains.  Not complaining!  Anyway, I've always been fascinated with the dynamics of mtn. wave events.  It's fun to drive around and observe the micro-climates when they do occur.

While typing this, the precipitation here has almost completely switched to snow.  Temp is still 34, so nothing is sticking.  The NAM may be right that 3-4 inches may fall, but very little may stick in reality. 

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I don't know if it will be right with QPF in my area but the NAM is probably going to miss on changeover. At 10am it has snow on the Plateau and rain in the valley. The Valley appears to have mostly transitioned in areas getting QPF. Heck, I'm actually warmer than some of you way south of me at this point. The top down cooling was very efficient. If you guys get the NAM rates advertised I expect some egg on faces for some forecasters. 

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I don't know if it will be right with QPF in my area but the NAM is probably going to miss on changeover. At 10am it has snow on the Plateau and rain in the valley. The Valley appears to have mostly transitioned in areas getting QPF. Heck, I'm actually warmer than some of you way south of me at this point. The top down cooling was very efficient. If you guys get the NAM rates advertised I expect some egg on faces for some forecasters. 

It’s definitely rate induced cooling. Got a little break and the temps went up .6 degrees


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Can’t post a pic right now but driving over the ridges into Oak Ridge from Morgan County I could see the snow falling and evaporating on the 3000 foot peaks just north of Oliver Springs. It really did have the look of evaporation eating op the precip and not melting. I guess this mid/ low level dry air means business. The snow was making it about 2/3 of the way down the mts. 

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Thank you all for reports! I'm still catching up from page 5, but this is time sensitive.

Correlation Coefficient out of Hytop shows the rain-snow line gradually sinking south. I've highlighted my manual adjustment. Close to the radar it should be right on. Ditto for higher elevations. Farther from the radar it's higher in the cloud; so, I manually move the line north. This is still better than most color radar algorithms. The big question locally, KCHA wall?

 R-S-el.PNG.750cc706e91ad20022c97e07142ee03a.PNG

OHX radar is solid pink. I deduce all snow up there if/when it starts snowing. It'll snow in Nashville and suburbs. Knoxvegas should go back to snow. CC rain-snow line is sinking south of TYS as I write. Mountains are already snow of course. Haven't looked hard at TRI qpf, but that'll be all snow if it does. Kingsport vs JC back-and-fourth cage match with folding chairs may be in effect, haha!

Oh Chattanooga proper, can I say it? Bless our hearts! Still 50 deg at 10pm last night so... Well, at least we had Surprise Saturday. Signal Mountain is money though today!

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1 minute ago, nrgjeff said:

Thank you all for reports! I'm still catching up from page 5, but this is time sensitive.

Correlation Coefficient out of Hytop shows the rain-snow line gradually sinking south. I've highlighted my manual adjustment. Close to the radar it should be right on. Ditto for higher elevations. Farther from the radar it's higher in the cloud; so, I manually move the line north. This is still better than most color radar algorithms. The big question locally, KCHA wall?

 R-S-el.PNG.750cc706e91ad20022c97e07142ee03a.PNG

OHX radar is solid pink. I deduce all snow up there if/when it starts snowing. It'll snow in Nashville and suburbs. Knoxvegas should go back to snow. CC rain-snow line is sinking south of TYS as I write. Mountains are already snow of course. Haven't looked hard at TRI qpf, but that'll be all snow if it does. Kingsport vs JC back-and-fourth cage match with folding chairs may be in effect, haha!

Oh Chattanooga proper, can I say it? Bless our hearts! Still 50 deg at 10pm last night so... Well, at least we had Surprise Saturday. Signal Mountain is money though today!

When do you think the areas above Chattanooga (Cleveland to Loudon) will transition? 

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