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NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21


Holston_River_Rambler
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Light rain falling at 38.8 here in the foothills.  

My dewpoint remained near 35 overnight hugging the mountains, so I assume that's why rain can fall, while areas to my west (TYS), just started seeing it.  Recent OBS at TYS shows 43/27.   

Temp dropped to 38.1.  But with the dewpoint above freezing (34), I need some CAA to help out here.  

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Similar here too Powell. Temp 34. Dewpoint 31. 

Something that I don’t understand is that most, if not all the modeling, including the NAM has accumulating snow with dewpoints and of course temps around 33-34. I don’t think I’ve ever seen it snow and stick when the dewpoint was above freezing. Of course, we see it happen when the temps and dewpoints are crashing, but not this way usually? I guess the NAM is thinking the rates will be so heavy that will overcome the dewpoints and temps?

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It's got to be getting close. The CC shows just a tiny circle around the radar site now:

giphy.gif&key=280764d165ca33a661551dd27874c78a3827bd54e8cdf197a68b45e795d34a66

 

Transition has got to be 1800’ ish at the most. In to work I crossed Black Oak Ridge which is 1400’ and it was at least 50R/50S. My temp gauge on my Jeep I figure is +1.5’ and I was at 36 coming over the ridge.

 

 

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