Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21


Holston_River_Rambler
 Share

Recommended Posts

Help! I've been NAM'ed for the second time in 2 weeks! I'm still super skeptical of temps. I said during the last event that I'd cut totals in half. I was wrong. Who knows what will happen this time. Fingers crossed!


You where right to say that, it just over performed


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Special Weather Statement lulz

Across southwest Virginia, Tennessee valley and Plateau, light snow
accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch is expected during the day
Thursday but mainly over grassy and elevated surfaces. Locally
heavier amounts are possible across the higher ridges and
mountains.

Looking at all the soundings for central/southern valley and plateau, I think that was a good call. WWA, WSW, and WSW products are mainly influenced by travel (2"-3" of snow of the grass while pretty has little impact on the public). Most soundings are in the 34/35 range, couple degrees warmer than last weeks system..not ideal for accumulation on the roadways. Think they went a little too low for accums on grass and think the plateau will go to an advisory at some point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For anybody interested

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
341 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)...
An active weather pattern with strong jet dynamics producing
widespread precipitation through Thursday.

For Tonight, a good deal of mid and high level clouds, especially
southern half of the area initially. Deeper moisture begins to
pull back into area toward daybreak Thursday.

For Thursday, the strong jet dynamics with a 300mb jet of
150-160kts over the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic states. The
forcing will produce strong forcing with good fronto-genetic lift
around the 600mb level. Models also show good isentropic lift.

Initially, the temperature profile shows more of a mixture of
rain/snow but once dynamic cooling ramps up the precipitation will
change over the snow most locations.

Looking at HREF ensembles, the Smoky Mountains will likely receive
the most snowfall with up to 6 inches with generally 2 to 4. Have
upgrade this area to a warning. The winter weather advisory for
the rest of the east Tennessee Mountains and southwest North
Carolina looks good.

Big question is snow accumulations for the Tennessee valley and
Plateau. Given the boundary layer temperature is marginal for
snow, ground temperatures in the 30s/40s,and snowfall occurring
during the day, snowfall will likely be limited to mainly grassy
and elevated surfaces.

Snow will taper off to light snow showers/furries by late
afternoon and early evening.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Looking at all the soundings for central/southern valley and plateau, I think that was a good call. WWA, WSW, and WSW products are mainly influenced by travel (2"-3" of snow of the grass while pretty has little impact on the public). Most soundings are in the 34/35 range, couple degrees warmer than last weeks system..not ideal for accumulation on the roadways. Think they went a little too low for accums on grass and think the plateau will go to an advisory at some point.

From the way I read it they are only expecting .5-1" on grassy surfaces, road temps can also drop to support accumulating snow if there is a heavy enough band.  Not sure how heavy this snow is supposed to be

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

From the way I read it they are only expecting .5-1" on grassy surfaces, road temps can also drop to support accumulating snow if there is a heavy enough band.  Not sure how heavy this snow is supposed to be

Yeah, I would cut the NAM totals by 1/2 to 1/3..so 1"-2" in central/southern valley (2"-3" in those areas where ridge tops get to 1200'-1500' plus). Last weeks soundings had Chatt around 32/33 (fairly spot on with actual observed)..it was close enough to 32 for higher rates to impact the roads. 34/35 is just too high for rates to cool, still could see shaded areas of roadways try to accumulate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe some of us get some radiational cooling this PM?
 
giphy.gif&key=655e9b6c0ed04eab947153a391245736a71cf41b4856dbdddc4054e7949d02c9
Wonder what our chances of staying semi-clear for a while are through the night to get some of that good radiational cooling?

Then I wonder about evaporative cooling at the onset of the precip or will any of that play any factor in this current upcoming scenario?



Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...