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02/21/20 Snow Potential


NorthArlington101
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14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the latest Mesos (3K, 12K Nams) we are seeing slightly less dig from the shortwave. This is resulting less of a southerly component to the winds at 700 mbs and up which is what is driving the moisture over the colder air. You can see the results if you look at the FGEN maps as that has weakened. Hence we see a contraction southward of the precip as well as a reduction on snow totals. One thing to keep an eye on is to see how much dig we do in fact see with the SW at both 700 mbs and 500 mbs. More dig = more snow and farther north.

6z Euro probably has many down there hitting the panic button...or tossing it lol.

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Hrrr is lookin snowier and snowier for E. NC and Se Va. Checkout the 1 hour rates.  Like 2.5"/hour ...fun stuff.  

 

hrrr-conus-norfolk-snow_1hr_10to1-2246800.png

Doesn’t look like this was accurate...looks like a bust for the higher totals to me..all the heavy stuff is in south North Carolina, the returns have been pretty weak all evening in the Norfolk/VA beach area 

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Doesn’t look like this was accurate...looks like a bust for the higher totals to me..all the heavy stuff is in south North Carolina, the returns have been pretty weak all evening in the Norfolk/VA beach area 

Yes. This is true. Plus it's been raining at my house the whole time. Had a few flakes in the afternoon.  Now just a windy, driving light rain. Dynamics staying south for sure. Still 0.00 for the last 2 winters here. 

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42 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Yes. This is true. Plus it's been raining at my house the whole time. Had a few flakes in the afternoon.  Now just a windy, driving light rain. Dynamics staying south for sure. Still 0.00 for the last 2 winters here. 

Are you that surprised having no snow living on the sound?  I can’t imagine you average much a year.  

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Are you that surprised having no snow living on the sound?  I can’t imagine you average much a year.  

Not surprising at all. This is my first full-time winter here. Part time last year. No accumulation in my hood. They get 2 inches on average. Many years nothing. And some years they get a good 8 or 12 inch storm. In 2018 the sound froze over, so it can get cold right on the water. In the two Winters I've been here the low temperature was 27. And that was about 10 days ago. Obviously we didn't move here for smell. Quite the opposite. I can drive a mile West or north...or southwest of my location and it is snowing right now.

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27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just looked at some snow obs for down south. 1-4", with a lone report of 5. Mostly in the 1-3 range. Pretty much as expected, except for those buying into the ridiculous NAM runs. :weenie:

Decent event for them considering the horrific pattern.

 

This was poorly handled by the mesos in general...the globals defintely had the better idea. GFS a little too light and too south but overall it handled it better.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah and some were beating on the Euro for being too dry/too suppressed. It almost always wins.

Yeah, Radar was interesting...seems like all the heavy stuff stayed generally south of Raleigh...the SE VA area was basically under 20 and especially under 25 dbz all day and evening.  Its not gonna work for a big snow when its in the 40s as the storm starts and the dynamics never really fully come into play

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10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, Radar was interesting...seems like all the heavy stuff stayed generally south of Raleigh...the SE VA area was basically under 20 and especially under 25 dbz all day and evening.  Its not gonna work for a big snow when its in the 40s as the storm starts and the dynamics never really fully come into play

The moisture was there. Some of the globals were too far suppressed. The temperatures were the issue. That's where the mesos were off. I got .89 of rain with just a dusting on the deck and roof to show for it. Once you get about a third of a mile Inland from where I am at it's consistently 1-2 inches. But the 4 and 5 inch reports came from places well away from any influence of the local waterways. Western Suffolk and Franklin were the jackpot. And I think somewhere south of Greenville North Carolina may have gotten 5. Not sure about that either. But 1-4 is spot on. Meh. 

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32 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

The moisture was there. Some of the globals were too far suppressed. The temperatures were the issue. That's where the mesos were off. I got .89 of rain with just a dusting on the deck and roof to show for it. Once you get about a third of a mile Inland from where I am at it's consistently 1-2 inches. But the 4 and 5 inch reports came from places well away from any influence of the local waterways. Western Suffolk and Franklin were the jackpot. And I think somewhere south of Greenville North Carolina may have gotten 5. Not sure about that either. But 1-4 is spot on. Meh. 

Yeah I dont disagree but when i was watching radar, Norfolk/VA Beach hardly got into the greens and good stuff...I mean i dont know, how impressive is .8 or so over the course of 12 or more hours?  the temps were a big issue but I feel like if some of the heavy stuff in SC and southern NC got up further north, the dynamics would have kicked in better.  There was a mesoscale discussion put out yesterday afternoon for the VA/NC area of 1"+ rates, I dont really think that ever materialized.

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