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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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Just now, wxdawg10 said:

what are you talking about? This storm is performing like it was predicted to. 2-4 inches around the triangle, 3-6 inches points northeast.  No one predicted a foot of snow anywhere in NC or VA. you can't hug models when they're spewing clown maps and choose to ignore experienced mets who predict reasonable totals. Thats on you.

Who has 4 inches in the triangle? I havent seen any reports more than 2. I will wait to see complete snow maps once the storm is finished.  

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3 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

what are you talking about? This storm is performing like it was predicted to. 2-4 inches around the triangle, 3-6 inches points northeast.  No one predicted a foot of snow anywhere in NC or VA. you can't hug models when they're spewing clown maps and choose to ignore experienced mets who predict reasonable totals. Thats on you.

1-3" sounds more accurate for the Triangle. Actually 1-2" with a few isolated 3".

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9 minutes ago, Snownado said:

1-3" sounds more accurate for the Triangle. Actually 1-2" with a few isolated 3".

Yeah, 1-2" seems accurate for the Triangle. Not sure I've actually seen any 3" reports. I just went for a walk and there's less than an inch in all of my neighborhood near North Hills. It's already melting, too. Flurries falling now. 

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Just now, NCsandhills said:

Yeah, 1-2" seems accurate for the Triangle. Not sure I've actually seen any 3" reports. I just went for a walk and there's less than an inch in all of my neighborhood near North Hills. It's already melting, too. Flurries falling now. 

Probably won't be many areas with an inch left on the ground by daylight tomorrow with the melting going on before the colder air arrives later tonight.

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41 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It appears this storm will bust low for just about everyone. Places modeled to get 3 to 6 inches in eastern NC are getting half of that at best. Places like Norfolk and VA Beach barely have anything due to Easterly winds off of the ocean. Areas just east of the Blue Ridge got a dusting to an inch and even Asheville and Hendersonville had an inch or less when almost all modeling had them at 2 to 4 inches.

I'm curious as to precip amounts for these areas when all is said and done. Obviously lack of heavy precip hurt many NC areas but toasty boundary level temperatures were equally troublesome. The storm also seemed to be a bit weaker and further south than progged. 

Too early but you are more right than wrong. Let's see how it plays out but it has been a bust from Edenton through Elizabeth City and up into Hampton Roads. This was a bull's-eye on many models. I suspect someone southeast of Greenville will end up getting four or five inches but that may be max.

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If you compare the ground truth to the official NWS forecasts, the Triad and Triangle got basically what they were supposed to get, though.  Actually, the Triad overperformed a bit, if anything.  It just didn’t meet some of our weenie expectations.  I was expecting 2-4” IMBY and that’s basically what we got (albeit on the lower end).  I thought Raleigh would do a little better, though.

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It's only a novelty at this point, but many of the models are continuing to show an area of light snow developing in Virginia and dropping into the northern Piedmont of NC before 7am. Accumulations look to be light, an inch or less on most of the models, but it's an interesting feature never the less. I have noticed the radar is just now starting to show returns blossoming between Roanoke and Lynchburg so this may be the beginning stages of what the models are showing. I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to stay awake long enough to see how this plays out though. 

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10 hours ago, wncsnow said:

It appears this storm will bust low for just about everyone. Places modeled to get 3 to 6 inches in eastern NC are getting half of that at best. Places like Norfolk and VA Beach barely have anything due to Easterly winds off of the ocean. Areas just east of the Blue Ridge got a dusting to an inch and even Asheville and Hendersonville had an inch or less when almost all modeling had them at 2 to 4 inches.

I'm curious as to precip amounts for these areas when all is said and done. Obviously lack of heavy precip hurt many NC areas but toasty boundary level temperatures were equally troublesome. The storm also seemed to be a bit weaker and further south than progged. 

I disagree. Seems to have played out almost exactly as forecast. Lotta 2-3 in reports in the Triangle and 2in reports in Triad. Looks like snow fell all the way into far SE parts of the state. My farm in Louisburg has over 3in on the ground this morning after melting so I bet they had close to 4 in. Looks like a large area of 3-4 in reports East of here, which was right in line with 2-4 in forecast. I saw some 5 in reports sprinkled in. Only thing that didn't happen was a heavy band with 6-8 in lollipops, which I fully expected somewhere east of here, but overall it was well-forecast. 

Places that didn't do as well as forecast look like SE VA and extreme NE NC. CLT was never forecast to get much and same story with the upstate. I can tell you this, if the BL was a couple degrees cooler, this would have been a widespread 4-6 in storm for much of NC. We hit 2.5" and stayed there for 4 hours of steady snow once the heaviest rates moved out. It was just compensating for melting. We finished with around 2.75" depending on where you measure.

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8 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

If you compare the ground truth to the official NWS forecasts, the Triad and Triangle got basically what they were supposed to get, though.  Actually, the Triad overperformed a bit, if anything.  It just didn’t meet some of our weenie expectations.  I was expecting 2-4” IMBY and that’s basically what we got (albeit on the lower end).  I thought Raleigh would do a little better, though.

This system did what I expected here in the Triad.  Wasn’t a blockbuster by any stretch, but it is what it is considering.  I ended up with 2” mostly because the temps were good up this way.  We didn’t have the QPF we needed, but everything that fell was snow from start to finish.  No rain or mixing at all.  The NW Piedmont did overachieve slightly compared to expectations.

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17 minutes ago, WesternNC_wxm said:

Cullowhee NC ending with a solid 0". Typical around here in our microclimate, snowed all day yesterday but just a little too warm for accum. Last good storm I remember here was something around 8"-10" two years ago!! 

Dec storm from last winter had to of been a good one for you, right?

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Just now, Snownado said:

Im new to NC. Is Fayetteville generally considered to be one of the less desirable places to live in NC?

Really the whole 74 corridor from Wadesboro to Lumberton up to Fayetteville is probably lowest on the list of NC places to live due to high poverty levels, crime rates, and overall lack of things to do 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Really the whole 74 corridor from Wadesboro to Lumberton up to Fayetteville is probably lowest on the list of NC places to live due to high poverty levels, crime rates, and overall lack of things to do 

Sounds very depressing. 

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