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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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Local station here in Hampton Roads---guy showed 3 models, with NAM around 3" and the other 2 showing like 1". Then showed their in-house model which literally had 0 for Chesapeake/Va Beach. He then says he anticipates a "significant snow event"?

Huh? Seemed more like covering his bases than actually giving out info.

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I like your optimism and hope that map verifies, but I’ll be shocked if everyone receives half of that.

Here’s my super heavy disclaimer; it was a casual map I made for most of my friends primarily in the eastern part of the state, so for the mountains and west this doesn’t exactly exude granular detail. That being said I think 2-5 across the northern half of the state is decently attainable; also feeling pretty good about the northern eastern corner seeing some pretty good totals
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7 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

IDK fellas, the current radar looks like it has plenty of moisture and moving ENE. If that is any indication there should be plenty of moisture for most to see at least a nice thump. Cold is usually the issue and I still think it will be with this one as well. 

I've been posting today from TX that this system is overperforming bigtime.  Still raining here and has been raining for over 24 hours now.  QPF will not be the issue tomorrow. 

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Not really sure I buy the jackpots being so far east given the SLP location. It's not "that" far offshore, given the recent trends. IMO the area from Raleigh to Roanoke Rapids to Eliz' City looks pretty golden in this particular setup. Also over-running tends to sneak up fast and sometimes has a tendency to overperform. So don't be surprised if we see some quick totals add up over the southwest mountains/NE GA tomorrow. I tend to look at the 500mb pattern more so than most, as that's what i've always used for comparison/climo purposes. This one has the look of a classic i40 3 to 6 inch type event to me. Of course lolipops are always possible of 8 to 10. But the overwhelming majority will probably favor lesser totals. Initial sfc temps issues/light rain will likely be overcome by heavy precip relatively quickly north of i40.

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10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I've been posting today from TX that this system is overperforming bigtime.  Still raining here and has been raining for over 24 hours now.  QPF will not be the issue tomorrow. 

The problem for some is not just the quantity of QPF, but the cutoff.  It could be pretty sharp for places that otherwise wouldn’t have temp issues.

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Hate to say it but.. It also went down for most western areas from last run

Don't really buy the precip gap over western NC. THe majority of this system will be isentropic lift generated (aka GOM moisture overrunning cold air). The southwest mountains/foothills and NE Georgia generally do well in these setups. There will likely be some back end enhancement over the costal plain w/ some incoming PJ energy Thursday night, but that will be a small enhanced band most likely confined over NE NC. The majority of this will be a front end thump. Radar looks good as well. We are in a weak El-Nino and most systems lately have overperformed QPF wise. Good to keep ground moisture/recent trends in mind.

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1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Don't really buy the precip gap over western NC. THe majority of this system will be isentropic lift generated (aka GOM moisture overrunning cold air). The southwest mountains/foothills and NE Georgia generally do well in these setups. There will likely be some back end enhancement over the costal plain w/ some incoming PJ energy Thursday night, but that will be a small enhanced band most likely confined over NE NC. The majority of this will be a front end thump. Radar looks good as well. We are in a weak El-Nino and most systems lately have overperformed QPF wise. Good to keep ground moisture/recent trends in mind.

Hope you're right but modeling has been insistent on some type of downsloping element for McDowell northwest to Wilkes County. With the flow and orientation of the moisture its unusual to have a precip minimum here. If it was more west to east then yes

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Hope you're right but modeling has been insistent on some type of downsloping element for McDowell northwest to Wilkes County. With the flow and orientation of the moisture its unusual to have a precip minimum here. If it was more west to east then yes

Anything's possible. The situation is definitely not ideal for the mountains from a jackpot scenario. That said, given it's mostly overrunning and we're in an el-nino pattern, the models will likely be underdone there. The flow is WSW to ENE.

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