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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

FYI, the RAP is similar to the HRRR in that it has no warm nose above i-85 at 10am tomorrow morning.:weenie:

Yeah, there is a 5 degree C difference at 825 mb between the 3K NAM and the HRRR/RAP at my place. There may be hope, even though asking for the HRRR/RAP to verify upstairs and the 3K NAM to verify at the surface seems like a stretch.

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Blacksburg REALLY unimpressed

 

NCZ020-201100-
Yadkin-
Including the city of Yadkinville
401 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Cooler with lows in the mid 30s. Light
and variable winds.
.THURSDAY...Rain, cooler. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s.
Light and variable winds, becoming northeast around 10 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain in
the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Cooler with lows
in the lower 20s. Light and variable winds, becoming north around
10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Raleigh NWS has the chance of precipitation tomorrow and tomorrow night in Greensboro at 50%.  That's kind of astounding.

They have Greensboro and Winston-Salem both with 1 inch of snow in the forecast.  I'd take the over on that one all day long

Agreed. When there's ANY kind of winter storm in the Carolinas where precip gets to VA, Greensboro and Winston Salem get the lion's share.  They'll struggle least with temps as usual. 

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Mhx is saying all rain all day tomorrow for their NW counties. Either they are way off or the tools they use are showing then what we cant see.

As of 250 PM Wednesday...The calm before the storm on Thursday.
Low pressure develops off the northeast Florida coast and moves
offshore well to our SE while strengthening Thursday. NAM3km/HRRR
shows light rain returning to the CWA by mid-morning Thursday
with steady light rain continuing through the daylight hours.
Top- down ensemble precipitation type tool indicates that ptype
should remain liquid through 00z and surface temperatures remain
at 36 degrees or higher over the northwestern corner of the CWA
and closer to 40 degrees elsewhere. Highs will likely occur
around midday with slowly falling afternoon temperatures. N/NE
winds will remain gusty on Thursday.
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