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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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i'm not trying to get my hopes up too high as many of us know..but i will say that in the past, alot of storms trended warmer and less snowy the closer we got. this is the opposite.   it's been trending snowier and storms that trend snowier the closer you get tend to verify. local mets and NWS will always be conservative until the signs are too strong to be denied.   Always easier to bust with higher totals than getting cold rain when you predict 10 inches. I like Eric Webb's take on this.  also WXSOUTH, one of the mets i respect the most had a great discussion on why this thing might overperform.

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35 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

I like where we are sitting @Wow, I think we will be just far enough north to not have too much mixing issues, just need the precip

I'm worried about surface temps.  Per the GFS, we're warm at the surface even though the column is cold and it's snowing.  Nam is a bit colder but seems to be discounted by....like everybody. If we're sitting at 36 or so we'll lose alot of accumulation and sticking to the roads is doubtful IMO. I don't see the rates being hard enough to cool us down to freezing.  Evidently no other met does either looking at the accumulation numbers forecasted. Everybody is honking the "on elevated surfaces" jargon.  Sigh.  Hoping things tick colder today. 

Remember when we were worried about qpf? Nope, it's always temps. 

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Just now, SnowNiner said:

I'm worried about surface temps.  Per the GFS, we're warm at the surface even though the column is cold and it's snowing.  Nam is a bit colder but seems to be discounted by....like everybody. If we're sitting at 36 or so we'll lose alot of accumulation and sticking to the roads is doubtful IMO. I don't see the rates being hard enough to cool us down to freezing.  Evidently no other met does either looking at the accumulation numbers forecasted. Everybody is honking the "on elevated surfaces" jargon.  Sigh.  Hoping things tick colder today. 

Remember when we were worried about qpf? Nope, it's always temps. 

 

I guess my question to myself, in that situation, is why would I trust the GFS with thermals?

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

I'm convinced no one is going to be convinced until convincing snow is accumulating on a convincing ground.

I am just glad that Tim Buckley was man enough to go all in yesterday.  Maybe that will help us not have a grocery store/gas station apocalypse the day that the snow is falling.

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9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It's like nobody saw what happened in Georgia two weeks ago. 

Yep... overcame the temp issue quickly with those rates.   I remember a March snow several years back here where it snowed moderately - big flakes - for hours and barely made the grass white... remember being so frustrated with that one!  This is a more significant even than that but goes to show how just a degree or two can make quite a difference to your totals.  I think this is going to come down to the wire with temps to see how its all going to shake out.

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8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

My gut feeling is they were punting until today. Always trust NAM thermals over GFS. 

This cant be stressed enough....also this wont be as big a mixing problem as some think.....a lot of those sleet soundings in central NC are BARELY sleet soundings at all and once it flips to all snow and that coastal cranks up I doubt we see nearly as much mixing over central and south central NC as the models show....those silly NAM numbers are doable but even 60-70% of the NAM output is a monster hit....

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