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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We in the mid-Atlantic always have the policy of cutting the NAM qpf in half at least.

Id favor a Euro/GFS/NAM blend.

For sure I hope no one is expecting 12"+ now. But if we could squeeze a 4-6" event out of this miserable excuse for a winter I'd be thrilled.

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4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

RAH updated their snow maps shortly after 9 and still have wake county less than one inch in the most likely scenario.

They won't either until much closer to storm time.They do leave the opportunity for it to change. This has to be the 93rd post today that you have said this. The only thing you didn't add this time was the high was in the wrong place and ground temps are too warm. There are many more model runs still to go, this is the south after all and we are still riding the NAM.........for now   ;)   

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You might wanna wake up yalls local WFOs down there.  lol.  Although admittedly, I'd wait for a few more runs of the GFS.  We both know how the NAM likes to get precip happy.   But looks like everything is bumping up and there is a real good trend for your region.

Yup... overblown more than likely.  Thinking a general 1-3" with 3-6" maximums east part of the state.  Marginal temps.. wet snow

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4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

They won't either until much closer to storm time.They do leave the opportunity for it to change. This has to be the 93rd post today that you have said this. The only thing you didn't add this time was the high was in the wrong place and ground temps are too warm. There are many more model runs still to go, this is the south after all and we are still riding the NAM.........for now   ;)   

It's ok to be skeptical..  in fact I would encourage it!  Better to learn than booing and hissing at anyone not playing along.  But fingers crossed!

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Good luck guys.  And I mean that sincerely.  If anybody from outside this region starts coming in here to troll you, let me or any other mod know. Report or PM.   Hope it works out (Just be wary of the NAM. It can be a heartbreaker..although it has support this time, so it's likely on to something).  


Looking forward to something. If anything.


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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

Yup... overblown more than likely.  Thinking a general 1-3" with 3-6" maximums east part of the state.  Marginal temps.. wet snow

Surface temps are my pet peeve, listening to the snow melt and run down the gutters as it falls. 

With the nam moving North and North with the warm nose this may not be a very impactful storm for clt.  

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA.

Sun?  With all the rain we’ve had, we completely forgot about that thing.

I’ll take half of what the 00z NAM is giving me after this poop of a winter.  I missed Van Denton’s 10:00 PM forecast.  I’ll be interested in what he has to say for the Triad.

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10 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

ICON is all rain, and so it begins. Don't say that the ECMWF and UKMET didn't warn ya. Could be a lot of broken hearts throughout the Carolinas Thurs-Fri. Who knows though. 

ICON has been basically all rain. It's well known for being a bit too toasty at times. I wouldn't worry too much about it ever outside of seeing if it agrees with the bigger picture. 

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14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA.

Sun angle usually doesn't get mentioned here til the day before. Usually snow modeled 24+ hours away generally turns to rain before we have a chance to talk about it.

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