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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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Just now, calculus1 said:

Yes. That storm sucked. S. U. C. K. E. D. No other way around it.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
 

Most painful storm of my lifetime.  Not even close. Made worse by the fact that we had barely had any snow in the years prior.. that was insult to injury. 

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4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

So, it is not warmer than the last run?

I'm not going to bicker on the storm thread but... You said "trending towards all rain" as the first frame of precip arrived. Of course, the run turned out to be an absolute hammer for much of the state. I'm not saying not to post what you see but at least wait to speak or back it up with something of substance, not just blanket statements. You're not the only one. Sorry if I come off wrong, there's just a lot of activity on here and clutter really dampens the great meteorological chat we come here for, especially as we work towards storm mode :weenie:

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Not sure how valid these 10:1 maps are. Will have to dig into some soundings. Not sure I by over an inch of QPF unless we see the GFS/Euro/UKmet jump on board tonight/tomorrow. 

 

Overall setup is pretty straightforward. Weak to moderate STJ impulse undercutting the ridge out west. Suppressive PJ flow and strong HP over the plains. It's a pretty classic look for a moderate event (3 to 6 or 4 to 8 type). Area from Ashevilel to Elizabeth City looks Good to me.

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4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

Nice eye-candy, but I didn't realize this was the 12k NAM until someone posted the 3k NAM.  It still shows a nice event but nothing like this.  Is there any rational reason to pay much attention to what it says as opposed to the hi-res version.

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Just now, AirNelson39 said:


I believe this was a clipper coming out of the North which usually does have prominent downsloping.

It wasn't.. It was a.robust upper level low that tracked just south to create this setup. A lot of the snow that fell in the mountains was rain in the foothills before switching over 

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3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Nice eye-candy, but I didn't realize this was the 12k NAM until someone posted the 3k NAM.  It still shows a nice event but nothing like this.  Is there any rational reason to pay much attention to what it says as opposed to the hi-res version.

Here is the 3k. The difference....one shows 12km resolution and one shows 3km resolution. The 3k will be able to see smaller topographical features

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

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14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I'm not going to bicker on the storm thread but... You said "trending towards all rain" as the first frame of precip arrived. Of course, the run turned out to be an absolute hammer for much of the state. I'm not saying not to post what you see but at least wait to speak or back it up with something of substance, not just blanket statements. You're not the only one. Sorry if I come off wrong, there's just a lot of activity on here and clutter really dampens the great meteorological chat we come here for, especially as we work towards storm mode :weenie:

It was warmer though. It appears to be trending towards the ECMWF, which is almost entirely rain. Same with the UKMET. This is not unfounded.

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Good luck guys.  And I mean that sincerely.  If anybody from outside this region starts coming in here to troll you, let me or any other mod know. Report or PM.   Hope it works out (Just be wary of the NAM. It can be a heartbreaker..although it has support this time, so it's likely on to something).  

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5 minutes ago, Wow said:

Middle of the event and it's at or barely above freezing at the surface.  

iH22DSk.png

You might wanna wake up yalls local WFOs down there.  lol.  Although admittedly, I'd wait for a few more runs of the GFS.  We both know how the NAM likes to get precip happy.   But looks like everything is bumping up and there is a real good trend for your region.

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4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

RAH updated their snow maps shortly after 9 and still have wake county less than one inch in the most likely scenario.

RAH Wont bite unless every model is showing 5+ inches within 12 hours. i don't blame them we've all been burned so many times being conservative just makes sense

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