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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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Just now, BullCityWx said:

Besides almost every model shifting north today? The isothermal column from start to finish? 

What's shifting Noth? SLP, QPF, etc.? QPF changes from run to run and will not be the exact same at every model run. The area of the low is in the right exit region of the jet steak which is the area of descent. Also, the zonal does not aid to deepen the low and the trough is tilted positive. ECMWF and GFS show similar results at H5. 

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2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

What's shifting Noth? SLP, QPF, etc.? QPF changes from run to run and will not be the exact same at every model run. The area of the low is in the right exit region of the jet steak which is the area of descent. Also, the zonal does not aid to deepen the low and the trough is tilted positive. ECMWF and GFS show similar results at H5. 

If you go back and read the last few pages, you will have your answer  ;)   

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Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

If you go back and read the last few pages, you will have your answer  ;)   

I did and it's just QPF maps which changes every run. I am looking and seeing nothing as aforementioned in my post. I think Brad is a respected met and can see his forecasting reasoning. People calling his maps "lazy" is really insulting to all the great work he has done. 

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

I did and it's just QPF maps which changes every run. I am looking and seeing nothing as aforementioned in my post. I think Brad is a respected met and can see his forecasting reasoning. People calling his maps "lazy" is really insulting to all the great work he has done. 

So the QPF is trending up due to a wider moisture field, is not a trend? Didn’t you get banned in the Dorian thread?

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Just now, SN_Lover said:

I did and it's just QPF maps which changes every run. I am looking and seeing nothing as aforementioned in my post. I think Brad is a respected met and can see his forecasting reasoning. People calling his maps "lazy" is really insulting to all the great work he has done. 

So you didn't pay any attention to the soundings that were posted? Or re quoted to ask questions? Especially the last NAM sounding posted showing 12 hrs of snow falling at about an inch an hour.  I asked you to read, not skim. People having a difference of opinion, doesn't mean they are bashing. If you would like to discuss something other than the title of this thread, please take it to banter. 

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

I think we are talking about the NAM and we all know the NAM's tendency to over amplify QPF which is well documented in studies. The low is in the Right Exit region of the Jet and the Trough is tilted positive which inhibits dramatic deepening. It's still going to be a fun storm for you guys. Any snow is a win! 

NAM nailed last weekends snow and has stuck to its gun each run on this storm. Wouldn't be going against it right now. Especially with all the other models trending that was as well

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Just now, ST21 said:

NAM nailed last weekends snow and has stuck to its gun each run on this storm. Wouldn't be going against it right now. Especially with all the other models trending that was as well

You are correct, the synoptics are completely different this time though. Nothing in the upperlevels supports a extreme heavy snow event. More likely light to moderate. 

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