Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
 Share

Recommended Posts

ABC11 (WTVD) actually showed the output from the NAM but discounts the amounts.  They say what is important from the NAM is that the main area with a threat of the most snow lines up fairly well with other models.  Still conservative at 1" or less, but did say that a large area east of Raleigh has a 40% chance of 1" or greater.

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ragtop50 said:

ABC11 (WTVD) actually showed the output from the NAM but discounts the amounts.  They say what is important from the NAM is that the main area with a threat of the most snow lines up fairly well with other models.  Still conservative at 1" or less, but did say that a large area east of Raleigh has a 40% chance of 1" or greater.

There was some not great forecasting on triangle television tonight

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I'm watching though, assuming the qpf is significant in mby, is the surface temps.  The last GFS run although improved, still has surface temps around 34 degrees during the event (per soundings). Yes accumulation can happen at that temp but we'll lose accumulation because of it.  I'd really like the nam to be more right not only because of qpf but its slightly colder. I'd greatly like to be below freezing during peak moisture. 

  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SnowNiner said:

One thing I'm watching though, assuming the qpf is significant in mby, is the surface temps.  The last GFS run although improved, still has surface temps around 34 degrees during the event (per soundings). Yes accumulation can happen at that temp but we'll lose accumulation because of it.  I'd really like the nam to be more right not only because of qpf but its slightly colder. I'd greatly like to be below freezing during peak moisture. 

Was just looking at the same thing. I've seen it go both ways in this scenario. I've seen it bottom out at 34 and refuse to budge and I've also seen the heavy snow falling through the sub freezing column above give that extra degree or two needed. I guess only time will tell in that regard. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL says they have trended their amounts down after today because the cold air will be delayed and the low will be weaker and further off-shore.   Has anyone seen that in the forecast models because I haven't? 
Seems to me they are hanging their hat heavily on the UKMET and EURO and throwing out the other models with that forecast.  

It is hard to bet against the UKMET and ECMWF both and I do not blame them at all. Curious to see 18z ECMWF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Was just looking at the same thing. I've seen it go both ways in this scenario. I've seen it bottom out at 34 and refuse to budge and I've also seen the heavy snow falling through the sub freezing column above give that extra degree or two needed. I guess only time will tell in that regard. 

Agree. It comes down to precip rates and how shallow the near surface warm layer is. In this case the GFS and NAM yield good rates and the warm layer is very shallow (in this area) so I’d expect to see surface temps move 2-3 degrees lower than modeled. But look above, as warm nosing aloft is a separate problem. The Euro doesn’t have the precip rates 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...