Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
 Share

Recommended Posts

I don't want to throw cold water on this - I want snow as much as anyone, but...  
RAH is very skeptical.  Of course, this was posted before 5AM, 
but how much has changed to challenge their logic?


While many models continue to indicate the possibility of some
rather impressive snowfall accumulations, still thinking
accumulations and overall impacts will remain far less than the
numbers that the raw model solutions keep pushing out. Several
limiting factors will be at work, including: (1.) Persistent above
freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the
majority of the snowfall. (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not
likely in an event like this, expect closer to 5:1 or even less than
that. (3.) The parent high remains in an unfavorable climatological
location for delivery of efficient cold air. While there is some
indication that the high may break off to our north becoming a bit
more favorable, thinking that we`ll need to rely on a stronger than
anticipated bombing coastal low to truly get the cold air in place
in-time for a significant snowfall event. Another possibility would
be the presence of lower than anticipated surface dewpoints in place
Thursday afternoon and evening across central NC, which will promote
a more lucrative wet-bulb effect. A more reasonable, way-to-early
forecast would be closer to an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces
along and southeast of the I-95 corridor with a half inch or so
measured up to about the Triangle region. Elsewhere an exciting
trace amount would be prevalent. 
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:


While many models continue to indicate the possibility of some
rather impressive snowfall accumulations, still thinking
accumulations and overall impacts will remain far less than the
numbers that the raw model solutions keep pushing out. Several
limiting factors will be at work, including: (1.) Persistent above
freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the
majority of the snowfall. (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not
likely in an event like this, expect closer to 5:1 or even less than
that. (3.) The parent high remains in an unfavorable climatological
location for delivery of efficient cold air. While there is some
indication that the high may break off to our north becoming a bit
more favorable, thinking that we`ll need to rely on a stronger than
anticipated bombing coastal low to truly get the cold air in place
in-time for a significant snowfall event. Another possibility would
be the presence of lower than anticipated surface dewpoints in place
Thursday afternoon and evening across central NC, which will promote
a more lucrative wet-bulb effect. A more reasonable, way-to-early
forecast would be closer to an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces
along and southeast of the I-95 corridor with a half inch or so
measured up to about the Triangle region. Elsewhere an exciting
trace amount would be prevalent. 

An "exciting" trace!  What we all hope to see.  :D

You have to love the dark humor of some mets who write these AFDs.

  • Haha 4
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Dude , can u be positive? Lol , the 12z GFS trended northwest with the precip... the details still have plenty of time to iron out. 

Which puts his area with downsloping and he gets slotted. What is good for some, will also be bad for others. Consider the area where others are posting before replying to individual backyard statements. ;)  

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Kinda embarrassing that RAH still has 20% chance of precip for my location

RAH has always played it conservative.  It’s always better to see the snow trending upwards, than retracting a premature statement. We really need the dang Euro to come on board at the 12z. Lol

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

So are the globals really that important right now? Just curious of y'alls thoughts ..  or should we focus more on short range

I mean big picture the Euro is the most skilled model at every time frame. To say it's not important would be silly. It's true though it hasn't done particularly well forecasting sensible weather in our region with this pattern lately.

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here's the 12z UKMet at hr48 at 500mb.  Just comparing the trajectory of the height lines with the GFS, it matches up quite well.  The UKMet has been super suppressed all along, but the map argues that precip will be north this run - precip will be out on Pivotal later

c15ScJR.gif

Already out on PW... congrats not many

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...