Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

when is the last time you saw the nam overdo a warm nose only to have it trend colder as we got closer to verification? the warm nose will likely be stronger than advertised. believe these 8-10" outputs at your own peril.

In past years the NAM had a tendency to underestimate the warm nose resulting in much of it's snow being sleet, especially on the SW fringes. Dec 18 is a perfect example. It has done very well this year and with it pulling the frozen precipitation line north that is not a good sign for areas south. Certainly could come back south over the next 48 hours though. Profile readings not matching it's precip output though. Profile suggests snow much further South, but output removes virtually all snow from SC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:


Verbatim though you’re correct, sorry for the half baked analysis I’m checking the thread via mobile.

Caution on using one temperature layer for warm noses, they can pop up anywhere from 900-700mb

I mean, I’ve had sleet at 20 degrees not because there was a warm layer but because the dang moisture was too shallow. If it can find it, it usually does!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

And generally, I’d agree with you but it would take some doing to wreck my sounding. Could it happen? Totally. Is it likely as modeled? I don’t think so. 

I generally agree for your area. But I thought the same thing 24-36 hrs ago for my own. I confidently thought that the only limiting factor in my area would be moisture because I was solidly entrenched within the upper level cold on all the models. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Weather nerds 

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/

Also...only has rap, nam, and gfs but old favorite is twister...it shows more levels on the text soundings....sure wish more sites had detailed  text soundings  like they do. It sure helps seeing those ewls. Arl is ok but the annoying security stuff is...well annoying. 

http://www.twisterdata.com/

*squinting*
 

what do those letters say? :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, eyewall said:

That would be fine by me but I seriously doubt these numbers verify. If we get a dusting that is a win this year though.

I will be the first to admit that I have been adversely critical of your statements on this winter!  Nothing personal I promise!  I guess it was due to your statements of no winter.  The pattern sucks and I get that!  Warm and rain and a day or two of cool and dry!  I would appreciate  your honest thoughts on this system/setup later after the models have hashed out the best they can!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

*squinting*
 

what do those letters say? :lol:

:lol:B)

Yeah not the best layout and I dont think they have ever  updated that page. 

Anywho, thur going to suck around here...thinking much of north ga/upstate will end up with it being 33 to 35 because of how cold the low levels will be. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

GFS at Hour 42, I believe that the trajectory looks the tiniest bit more of a SW/NW flow, believe it will come north a tad, though nothings stands out really compared to the 6z.

Hour 48, 50-75 mile push north compared to 6z. Also showing a tendency at the same time frame over the last couple of runs (still at 48) of the storm appearing stronger each run. at least in terms of precip rates.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Greg Fishel from his Facebookl:   "...... In my estimation, the upper level pattern is wrong, the surface high is in the wrong place, and most if not all of the precipitation will fall while temperatures are above freezing. For snow lovers, I do not believe this upcoming late week weather event is going to be your meteorological messiah. Might we see a few flakes? Yes, but every time I venture outside you've got that so what's the big deal??? More to come later today."

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...