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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Is the NAM an outlier here folks?  Also, does it tend to overdo the precip?  

So far, the precip looks very uniform on the NAM which is nice to see.  I've seen it in recent years actually not be as heavy with precip as it's reputation would suggest.  At any rate, I think the globals are too light with precip

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Just now, griteater said:

So far, the precip looks very uniform on the NAM which is nice to see.  I've seen it in recent years actually not be as heavy with precip as it's reputation would suggest.  At any rate, I think the globals are too light with precip

Grit, that warm nose the nam is painting for Charlotte scares me. Seen this movie before...

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Just now, griteater said:

So far, the precip looks very uniform on the NAM which is nice to see.  I've seen it in recent years actually not be as heavy with precip as it's reputation would suggest.  At any rate, I think the globals are too light with precip

Thanks Grit.  Looks like the broadcast mets are sticking with the globals.  Guessing in another 24hrs (inside 60hrs) the NAM would suggest a better handle vs the globals maybe?

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

I think we are starting to move into the time range where the globals aren't as useful. I'd say a safe bet right now is somewhere between what the NAM and the globals are showing, and hope the trends over time move things closer towards the NAM. 

great minds?

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2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

Grit, that warm nose the nam is painting for Charlotte scares me. Seen this movie before...

It should, and if you live here the rest of your life, it will scare you until you are in your grave  :lol:

Sfc low track is excellent.  850 low track is a little north of ideal for us...but it worked out there

 

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9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It starts snowing in N Ga/Upstate SC at hour 60 and there are still flurries flying at hour 78. At the end of the run, eastern NC is still getting hammered  :lol: 

A bit of a frustrating run though as if not for a warm nose at 750 to 825mb it would be a lot more snow in north ga and the lower half of the upstate.  Probably would be a zone  of sleet but whether its able to actually accumulate is questionable. Maybe if there is decent lift and precip rates it could cause a changeover sooner than expected. 

Cant go without saying though, there is another multiple inch rain event preceding it for ga and sc. Just unreal how much precip we are getting.

 

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

Not quite the NAM event but still a good run 

76140110-E2AB-4453-A183-2F2EA0869492.png

I imagine snow would be more widespread than what the icon shows. It did poorly capturing the surface cooling from last weekend's snow. For example, Guaranteed there would be a faster changeover in the upstate than what its showing. 

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

A bit of a frustrating run though as if not for a warm nose at 750 to 825mb it would be a lot more snow in north ga and the lower half of the upstate.  Probably would be a zone  of sleet but whether its able to actually accumulate is questionable. Maybe if there is decent lift and precip rates it could cause a changeover sooner than expected. 

Cant go without saying though, there is another multiple inch rain event preceding it for ga and sc. Just unreal how much precip we are getting.

 

It gives GSP about .50 in sleet and a couple inches of snow. I don't mind sleet, it makes the sled go faster   :lol:  

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So I wanted to make a few comments about the location of the surface high.  As Eric Webb astutely noted in his composite posted on a previous page, the climo location for the surface high during Miller A storms is over the midwest (Iowa, etc.).  Ideally, we would have dual surface highs...one to our north and another to our northwest.

But there's more to it than just the position and strength of the surface high.  Here's a comparison of this week's storm to the Jan 3, 2002 storm.....the surface high is located in a similar position.  Also, the source region for the cold air coming out of Canada is good in both images...it's actually colder for our storm this week.  However, look across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico where we have a much stronger subtropical ridge in place.  This ridge is offering a much stronger resistance in terms of allowing the cold air to sink south out of the high.  Accordingly, note how the heights are lower over the Carolinas during the Jan 2002 storm (558 dam in 2002 vs. 567 this week).  Everything else equal, heights = temperatures aloft.  Lower heights support lower temperatures aloft.

On the flip side, the tighter temperature gradient this week, could allow for a fantastic clash as warm, moist air collides with the cold air that is sinking south from the mid-atlantic (= heavy frontogenesis and potential for heavy, banded precip).

O9PvyiA.gif

 

qPYpYIS.gif

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