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February 17-18 Snow Potential


Hoosier
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You know it's not the best winter when it is raining north of the 540 line in February.  We aren't even talking a fall or spring month.  

The reason why is because of too much warmth in the low levels, even though it is pretty cold aloft especially as you get up toward the 700-500 mb layer.  That layer is part of the calculation as we are talking about 1000-500 mb thicknesses of course.  So it results in rain in this instance despite the 540 line placement and is another reminder about the importance of forecast soundings.  

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12z CMC 

 

image.thumb.png.e6342fd956ca7868d581b78be5117a85.png

This same general map zoom with Kuchera ratio is available from pivotal weather. Kuchera maps aren't always great but they're much better than the coarse 10:1 maps from Tropical Tidbits that don't separate out mixed precip. Would recommend posting the pivotal maps for the GEM and RGEM, as well as the other models.

4b43eb52053ed63f660243335e2f5fb0.jpg&key=5ac147fd658923e9783575ddc82f3c352810c607735a3f0f87dd9267d601a751

 

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HRRR and other models like RGEM are keeping sfc temps around the freezing mark and upper air temps below freezing across the GTA tom night into Tues morning. This would increase the chances of accumulating snowfall esp north of 401. Preliminary call 2". However, it all comes down to temps as we're riding the thin line here. 

HRRR has ~4" by Tues afternoon. 

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9 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

HRRR and other models like RGEM are keeping sfc temps around the freezing mark and upper air temps below freezing across the GTA tom night into Tues morning. This would increase the chances of accumulating snowfall esp north of 401. Preliminary call 2". However, it all comes down to temps as we're riding the thin line here. 

HRRR has ~4" by Tues afternoon. 

Looks better for a little front end snow than it did 24 hours ago.  I'd go with 2" as well before the changeover.

Such a warm winter but we're weaseling snowfall.

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29 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said:

It started with light snow around 9am, but now we're getting big wet flakes. Probably already half an inch down. I was expecting very little with this storm because of the northerly track and mixing with rain, but if it keeps this up very long we're going to get more than expected.

Good to hear from a Madison area poster. Looks like you could have used an advisory on this.  HRRR has been indicating 4-6” of snow for awhile for much of SC Wisconsin.

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55 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said:

It started with light snow around 9am, but now we're getting big wet flakes. Probably already half an inch down. I was expecting very little with this storm because of the northerly track and mixing with rain, but if it keeps this up very long we're going to get more than expected.

I was just thinking to myself looking at radar and out the windows at work that this has the look of an overachiever. Go figure, since totals with this event were not expected to be that impressive to begin with. Why can't we ever get an anticipated big dog that verifies at or above even the high end of guidance?

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6 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Looks better for a little front end snow than it did 24 hours ago.  I'd go with 2" as well before the changeover.

Such a warm winter but we're weaseling snowfall.

This winter is up there with 2011-12 and 2001-02 in terms of warmth. Well deserved after all the garbage winters we've been through in the last decade or two. 

Majority of the precip should fall tonight. Temps won't be an issue and any changeover will only be light drizzle tom morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see 3" across much of the area. 

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47 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said:

I just got back from running errands - despite the mid-February sun angle and midday timing, it's coming down hard enough to accumulate pretty well out there.  I measured 2.3" when I got back home. 

What part of town are you in? I'm far west side near Mineral Point & the Beltline. @madwx, what are you seeing?

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9 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What part of town are you in? I'm far west side near Mineral Point & the Beltline. @madwx, what are you seeing?

Accumulating pretty nicely out there.  About 2".  Roads vary between snow covered and slushy/wet.  Looks like a couple more hours before warmer air moves in and rates drop off and we switch to drizzle/rain

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13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What part of town are you in? I'm far west side near Mineral Point & the Beltline. @madwx, what are you seeing?

SW by Raymond Rd and Verona Rd. 

3.2" now. I think 4-6" is in the bag.

Congrats RGEM on consistently showing higher amounts for us. Most of the other models showed a mix and/or main precip farther north.

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7 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said:

SW by Raymond Rd and Verona Rd. 

3.2" now. I think 4-6" is in the bag.

Congrats RGEM on consistently showing higher amounts for us. Most of the other models showed a mix and/or main precip farther north.

It looks like a compromise between the GEM/RGEM depiction and the main global models will turn out correct.  If GRB ends up we’ll below their expectation then the GEM/RGEM will have won this storm.

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Sunny and not a cloud in the sky. Might see a passing mood flake or FRDZ later today. This thing vanished like a fart in the wind.
Glad it stayed well south. Need the ice to remain driveable by truck at unofficial Pout this week. Conditions were crap three weeks ago but things have frozen nicely since.

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18 minutes ago, kevlon62 said:

Glad it stayed well south. Need the ice to remain driveable by truck at unofficial Pout this week. Conditions were crap three weeks ago but things have frozen nicely since.

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Heading up to Eelpout in Walker? Please pick up your trash, they’ve had big issues with people leaving literal tons of garbage out on the ice. I know slush on the lakes was a problem from the deep snowcover we’ve had since November, never developed a thick ice pack, glad to hear it’s gotten better. 

Looks like we may actually get a nice round of mod/heavy snow just in time for the evening commute. 

 

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4 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

This winter is up there with 2011-12 and 2001-02 in terms of warmth. Well deserved after all the garbage winters we've been through in the last decade or two. 

Majority of the precip should fall tonight. Temps won't be an issue and any changeover will only be light drizzle tom morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see 3" across much of the area. 

Fundamental theme of this winter...2-3" of stat padding snow tonight that'll all be washed away by tomorrow afternoon.

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