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Feb 12-13 Snowstorm


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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

 

 

Arctic front makes Joe's call money and Alek's bust.

ORD's loss is our gain. However, seasonal trends dictate that WAA will be stronger than progged and instead a possible 6", Jackstraw and I get contaminated with ZR and IP during the heaviest precip overnight Wed. and get a slopfest, ending with a coating of fluff as temps bottom drops out.

Realistically though, the 12km NAM, the Canadian, and the WRFs all agree with the Euro, which puts even me on the north edge of an I-70 storm, which is still good for 2-3".

 

 I live about 50 miles N of I-70 which always puts me in a white knuckle slop zone as opposed to closer to I-70 where it can be a little more cut and dry.  I agree the potential for seasonal repeat is there but this one is a bit different than the past few with, albeit coming in later, cold air to work with, the warm nose doesn't have the northward push as the past few systems and we're not going into it with 40-50 degree temps prior.   Most of the models have warm 850's to my south some as close as 5 miles lol.  2m temps may be at or just above freezing on the onset but I've noticed the models have been over doing 2m temps the past couple storms.  Get some decent heavy precip rates at the onset could negate that along with cloud cover and previous lows in the mid 20's.  I also have a classic forecast office battle going on with KIND going 1-3 and IWX going 3-5 two miles to my north.

  I'm going all in with the short stack this season calling 6-7 through Thursday afternoon. :whistle:   If that all sounds like someone in denial, well yeah lol!  Long term this looks like my last hurrah except for a late season long shot big dog so why not :weenie:

 

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13 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Technical question...Why did LOT issue the advisory for ILX? I won't post the entire wording but I was curious about this. Is it a glitch or is ILX at a retreat this week :) 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL
240 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

That kind of thing happens from time to time.  I guess LOT is running backup for them today.

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3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

 I live about 50 miles N of I-70 which always puts me in a white knuckle slop zone as opposed to closer to I-70 where it can be a little more cut and dry.  I agree the potential for seasonal repeat is there but this one is a bit different than the past few with, albeit coming in later, cold air to work with, the warm nose doesn't have the northward push as the past few systems and we're not going into it with 40-50 degree temps prior.   Most of the models have warm 850's to my south some as close as 5 miles lol.  2m temps may be at or just above freezing on the onset but I've noticed the models have been over doing 2m temps the past couple storms.  Get some decent heavy precip rates at the onset could negate that along with cloud cover and previous lows in the mid 20's.  I also have a classic forecast office battle going on with KIND going 1-3 and IWX going 3-5 two miles to my north.

  I'm going all in with the short this season calling 6-7 through Thursday afternoon. :whistle:   If that all sounds like someone in denial, well yeah lol!  Long term this looks like my last hurrah except for a late season long shot big dog so why not :weenie:

 

I bet you will see subzero temps on Fri morning with all of that snowcover.

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14 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Technical question...Why did LOT issue the advisory for ILX? I won't post the entire wording but I was curious about this. Is it a glitch or is ILX at a retreat this week :) 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL
240 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

They also did this mornings AFD, I have seen them do the ILX forecast in the past when the Lincoln office has computer issues or other technical difficulties.

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8 hours ago, Baum said:

5.0" call MBY

revised call: 4.8"

"STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND  
A DEEPENING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT  
WILL ALSO SUPPORT BETTER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS UP AROUND 15-16 TO  
1. FOR THIS REASON, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES   
(ISOLATED HIGHER)
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD REQUIRE THE NEED  
TO EXPAND THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD TO   
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND   

THURSDAY, "  LOT PM AFD

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ILX AFD via LOT

 

Quote

Impressive mid level circulation is visible at the Arizona/New
Mexico border on water vapor satellite this afternoon, with a
steady feed of moisture in the southwest flow ahead of this
system. Morning soundings from the lower Mississippi valley
(Little Rock with 0.75" PW and over 1" at Fort Worth, TX)
indicate the moisture that is headed this direction on Wednesday.

A strong upper level jet ahead of the circulation will steer this
moisture into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and into
southern and central IL on Wednesday. The best moisture transport
is headed toward the Ohio River Valley where the highest QPF will
be focused but the 0.75" PWAT axis will get into most of the
area. This coupled with decent isentropic lift ahead of the system
will promote a rapid expansion of the precipitation shield
through the morning into the afternoon. While surface temps may
warm above freezing, wet bulbing will support precip changing to
snow pretty quickly and then the precip rates should keep temps
down. Snow ratios will be on the lower side, but heavy wet snow
will be falling in the afternoon and into the evening commute.
Meanwhile, a sharp gradient in the rain- snow line will setup
somewhere along and north of the I-70 corridor with the higher
confidence in the highest numbers along and north of I-72/I-74. We
have issued a winter weather advisory for all counties north of
I-70 with various start/end times. Some areas in southeast IL
could get up to 1" of rain.

Precipitation rates will ease a bit Wednesday night, but colder
air will filter in from the northwest, and precipitation in the
deformation region on the northwest flanks of the surface low will
allow the snow to continue Wednesday evening, and with lighter
intensity overnight before tapering from southwest to northeast.
The I-74 corridor is still favored for the highest totals with a
stripe of 4-5" possible, areas in the advisory look receive 2-5"
overall. There is still some uncertainty in the cutoff line of
heavy rain vs. heavy snow.

 

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2 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

 I live about 50 miles N of I-70 which always puts me in a white knuckle slop zone as opposed to closer to I-70 where it can be a little more cut and dry.  I agree the potential for seasonal repeat is there but this one is a bit different than the past few with, albeit coming in later, cold air to work with, the warm nose doesn't have the northward push as the past few systems and we're not going into it with 40-50 degree temps prior.   Most of the models have warm 850's to my south some as close as 5 miles lol.  2m temps may be at or just above freezing on the onset but I've noticed the models have been over doing 2m temps the past couple storms.  Get some decent heavy precip rates at the onset could negate that along with cloud cover and previous lows in the mid 20's.  I also have a classic forecast office battle going on with KIND going 1-3 and IWX going 3-5 two miles to my north.

  I'm going all in with the short stack this season calling 6-7 through Thursday afternoon. :whistle:   If that all sounds like someone in denial, well yeah lol!  Long term this looks like my last hurrah except for a late season long shot big dog so why not :weenie:

 

I’m sitting over here in Kokomo hoping the pingers and speed of this system don’t screw me. 

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14 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

I’m sitting over here in Kokomo hoping the pingers and speed of this system don’t screw me. 

I think you're going to be as good if not better than me.  The modeled warm nose is right on our doorstep but its been consistently on our doorstep the last 24 hours instead of pushing all the way to the MI border as they've modeled the past couple systems.   Hey it's not a big dog but I'll take a jacked up :weenie: dog this season lol.  I also think we could be in for an inch of icing on the cake if we can get a french tickler off the lake late Thursday.  Hell if the weather channel can do it I'll go out on a limb a name this storm :weenie: storm Jackstraw lol. 

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

I think you're going to be as good if not better than me.  The modeled warm nose is right on our doorstep but its been consistently on our doorstep the last 24 hours instead of pushing all the way to the MI border as they've modeled the past couple systems.   Hey it's not a big dog but I'll take a jacked up :weenie: dog this season lol.  I also think we could be in for an inch of icing on the cake if we can get a french tickler off the lake late Thursday.  Hell if the weather channel can do it I'll go out on a limb a name this storm :weenie: storm Jackstraw lol. 

"French tickler". I giggled. 

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Looks like a solid turd of a storm.  I'd suggest doing as I am and not wasting precious seconds of your life on it.

:lol:

Joke of a storm. We'll be lucky to get an inch out of this now. 

Been a while since we've seen a nice storm (>8") that wasn't a clipper or had mixing issues. 

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