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2/8/2020 Snow Event


mackerel_sky
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5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

From ATL:

 

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 305 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 .

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Mostly cloudy skies expected to break up this evening allowing temps to fall to the low- to mid-30s tonight and tomorrow morning. A h850 shortwave is expected to sweep through the southeast tonight and tomorrow morning, with relatively smaller PWAT values but enough to produce a tenth to a half an inch across the northern CWA. With temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will be enough with an approximate 7.5:1 snow-water ratio for minor snow accumulations to occur with a rain/snow mix across North Georgia. Only about a tenth to a half inch of snow accumulations outside the mountainous regions are expected but with rains and warm ground temps, if anything falls it probably won`t stick around long. In mountainous regions up north this could be a different story. Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches, with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated locations. This has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for the majority of Northern GA. Temps may climb into the upper 30s before the transition from snow to rain occurs with some slick spots possible where any accumulations occur. Temps tomorrow night will also drop back into the low-30s for N GA, which may continue to cause some slick spots Sunday morning.

Crazy how far apart them and GSP are for the mountain counties in NE GA. Here in Rabun GSP forecast is for up to an inch, while Atlanta is saying that lol

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GSP

Right now...the best chance looks to be over extreme NE GA and the
higher elevations of the srn and central NC mtns. Expect about an
inch of snow thru 18z over Rabun and nrn Habersham counties...while
the NC elevations abv 3.5 Kft will likely see 1-3 inches by the time
it stops snowing there...or arnd midnight. Thus...have a two segment
WW.Y for these two areas based on thermal timing and elevation.
There could also be brief -snsh or a -ra/sn mix reaching the ground
over the entire wrn half of the FA including AND, GRD, GSP, and
HKY...yet sfc temps shud be too warm by then (~15z) to support any
sigfnt accum. Min temps will fall below freezing across all locales
tonight and slowly warm during the day with clouds and sct precip
lingering. Highs will be held abt 10 degrees below normal. overnight
mins Sat will also drop below freezing across the entire FA.
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at the risk of sounding too much like a weenie; i'm not buying the 33-35 surface temps for NE GA, upstate SC.  All the models have temps around -4 to -6c at 850mb and -2 to -3c all the way down to 950mb.  If it starts ripping snow with that profile, we're quickly dropping to 32/33, imo.

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11 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Im skeptical about much in the way of accumulation outside the higher elevations in GA. Even Gainesville should be in the mid to upper 30s most of tomorrow.

I dont agree with this. Temps should be at or even below freezing around Gainesville for a good portion of the event. Temps will already be 32 to 34 at onset  with wetbulbs around 30 12z to 14z..and with steady precip temps wont move much. 

Take it with a grain of salt but its Interesting to note the hrrr and 3km nam have narrow areas as high as 0.40 to 0.45 on the 18z runs. Would be something if that planned out. 

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

18z Rgem is out. Clobbers N. Ga. Also appears an hour or two faster with onset compared to other models. The below image is valid for 11am tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2020-02-07 at 4.02.59 PM.png

To add to this, there is already moisture forming in AL! Definitely earlier arrival, the better for us! RPM or whatever “ futurecast” radar is, looks really juicy for us tomorrow, r/s gradient on 85, of course

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I’m telling y’all, they just showed the full run of futurecast radar, and it puts it down pretty good over my backyard for 4-5 hours, and would probably be good for us to get 1-2”, it’s coming down pretty good, according to that model! Anybody got a cool animated radar showing us getting plastered with snow??

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My TWC local forecast has R/S mix tomorrow, snow accumulations less than an inch! Big win this winter, all day, everyday!:snowing:

Im telling y’all, this has pretty good bust potential,! I swear watching WYFF 4 and CJ, every time he shows futurecast radar, it’s snowier than the last run, and it’s almost like he can’t believe it as he’s talking over it!! It’s great!!:maprain::weenie:

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

NM, just saw CJ Facebook post, downplaying as a non event, rain snow mix! Man, he’s the best!:ph34r:

If the timing is just a litttle faster he’s going to eat a plate full of bird stew. However, I’ll take another trace as long as brick gets shutout this winter :guitar:

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43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

My TWC local forecast has R/S mix tomorrow, snow accumulations less than an inch! Big win this winter, all day, everyday!:snowing:

Im telling y’all, this has pretty good bust potential,! I swear watching WYFF 4 and CJ, every time he shows futurecast radar, it’s snowier than the last run, and it’s almost like he can’t believe it as he’s talking over it!! It’s great!!:maprain::weenie:

Whatever map Cedric just put out live on the air had Moderate snow north of 85 and a cold cold rain over our heads :loon:

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

at the risk of sounding too much like a weenie; i'm not buying the 33-35 surface temps for NE GA, upstate SC.  All the models have temps around -4 to -6c at 850mb and -2 to -3c all the way down to 950mb.  If it starts ripping snow with that profile, we're quickly dropping to 32/33, imo.

Spot on post here, especially for N GA into the western upstate.  The warm layer is very shallow at the surface on the soundings.

The forcing for rising motion is small in aerial coverage, but it maximizes across N GA into the western upstate (850mb warm advection and frontogenesis). These charts actually argue for the ‘heaviest’ snow potential to be south of the mountain areas

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

My TWC local forecast has R/S mix tomorrow, snow accumulations less than an inch! Big win this winter, all day, everyday!:snowing:

Im telling y’all, this has pretty good bust potential,! I swear watching WYFF 4 and CJ, every time he shows futurecast radar, it’s snowier than the last run, and it’s almost like he can’t believe it as he’s talking over it!! It’s great!!:maprain::weenie:

well thats the weather channel for you, why I never watch it.

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