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Damaging wind ~10A-3P Fri Feb 7


wdrag
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Hi,  

Many have been posting about wind problems in our forum area for the past 5 days and it looks like it should come to pass between roughly 10A-3P Friday Feb 7.

The combination of rapidly intensifying low pressure to a near record for our area in February, with the associated negative tilting short wave short wave passage followed by strong afternoon pressure rises and associated cold air advection should favor a period of  ~50MPH wind gusts for a short time in most of our area, conceivably well over 60 MPH in at least a few locations. This combined with somewhat soft ground for mid winter may lead not only to broken tree limbs/wires, power outages, but also a few uproots, especially with the weakened tree structure from the Dec 1-3 wet snow storm (nw NJ especially). 

I've checked IGW composite and while not a classic,  I would not be surprised at some sort of convectively induced gravity wave that ""if"" occurs, would modulate the flow and pop 50 MPH gusts into even the thermally inverted sounding north of the warm front (currently s of LI). 

This thread has been started because I think we're coming into a time when forum participants are going to be seeing lots of snow to rain opportunities between tomorrow afternoon and Valentines Day.  I wanted a place where we can just post the observed wind, wind damage reports for this uncommonly low pressure passage. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Will these winds mix down to the surface? 

absolutely. classic setup for it with those lapse rates as cold air surges in. I'd say the 68KT at the top of the boundary layer is a more isolated/extreme scenario, but I see no reason 50-60KT gusts won't occur on most of LI and 40-50KT in the city proper.

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*Damaging Wind Potential for E LI and SE CT Friday afternoon*

Upgraded to High Wind Warning for 25-35 mph sustained winds and
damaging gusts to 60 mph for Suffolk County and coastal SE CT
for Friday afternoon. This due to signal for a 2-4 hr period of
mean low-level winds of 50-55 kt in mixed layer and 60-65 kt
top of mixed layer between 18 and 22z, with favorable downward
momentum in wake of deepening shortwave/bombing low, rapidly
steepening lapse rates, strong pressure rises, and
unidirectional wind fields strengthening with height.

Elsewhere, wind advisory looks
sufficient, with peak winds gusts 50-55 mph, a low prob of 60
mph at this time. Strongest winds into early evening, but gusts
continue well into the night.

 

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Also check out the gravity waves on WV imagery - tremendous support for severe turbulence with those due to shear w/ the strong jet. Not a good day to be flying, and if the winds end up verifying this afternoon, there will be major delays and cancellations at all the local airports.

WV_020719.thumb.png.b0faf25a2ca73877905881d2c7fd4a33.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The warm sector where the high winds will develop is already into Philly. They jumped 8 degrees from 48 to 56 in just 30 minutes. Winds are now gusting close to 40 mph with pressure at 982 mb.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KPHL

Looks like it's quickly advancing north into the area now. S winds beginning to gust on the south shore, and the lowest pressure I can find is just under 978mb NW of PHL.

1443sfc.thumb.jpg.c1fe4263ce187c01baa17d7371d89743.jpg

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