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Major Winter Storm 2/6-2/7 OBS


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11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

That's old school before huge amounts of non- balloon data assimilation. No measurable difference nowadays though the belief is still very prevalent in the community. 

This is obviously a qualitative assessment on my behalf but I still see the loopiest solutions on 6 & 18Z as a general observation. That hasn't changed in 30 years of observing model outputs.  Maybe it's a just function of model uncertainty run-to-run and it just becomes more visible the more outputs you look at.  

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7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It seems like all system go for maybe an additional 4 to 8 type deal for BUF. 6-10 if everything breaks right. The 12z nam is correcting east from it's more amplified 00z and 06z runs and coming back towards the guidance pack. 

Last night was pretty big over perfomer IMBY so I'll take the 6-7" additional and finish with a foot+. Would be largest storm of the year besides Novembers 10.2". Would be the first time in awhile where the top storms are all synoptic. My largest lake effect "event" was like 7". 

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

It was tongue and cheek lol

Doesn't surprise me one bit..I mentioned it since yesterday, foreign models rarely lose lol

I'll say this, for the system that affected TX and OK a couple days ago,  the Euro was trounced by GFS for snowfall. Both had placement / axis of snowfall about right but EC was about 2x too high with snowfall, based on eyeballing CoCoRaHS reporting.  It was a fail.

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Just now, Syrmax said:

I'll say this, for the system that affected TX and OK a couple days ago,  the Euro was trounced by GFS for snowfall. Both had placement / axis of snowfall about right but EC was about 2x too high with snowfall, based on eyeballing CoCoRaHS reporting.  It was a fail.

Gotcha..

I was going strictly track..

Precipitation amounts even more of a toss up..

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Just now, Syrmax said:

I'll say this, for the system that affected TX and OK a couple days ago,  the Euro was trounced by GFS for snowfall. Both had placement / axis of snowfall about right but EC was about 2x too high with snowfall, based on eyeballing CoCoRaHS reporting.  It was a fail.

A friend from here got 7.5" in Midland Texas. He's a Met over there, a regular poster on here. He said banding resulted in higher totals over his house. 

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NMM short range Meso 12Z run is a huge shit. Very Euroish. Plenty cold. ARW2 is warmer and looks like the NAM. I would focus on the short range models for sure. At least that has worked for me in the past within 24 hours. They seem to best best with temp profiles and boundary layers plus best banding signatures. Lack of consensus on regarding thermal profiles is still evident between the models. Story of the winter

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's a wave ripping up an existing baroclinic zone so it's not as intense as the slp implies. It's not like a single low exploding to the south and tracking to the ne. 

I don't remember, in my OSU met days, discussing these differences in synoptics. I would think an existing baroclinic (frontal) zone would provide additional moisture and lift, but maybe not the pronounced banding that a single LP would produce.

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1 minute ago, vortmax said:

I don't remember, in my OSU met days, discussing these differences in synoptics. I would think an existing baroclinic zone would provide additional moisture and lift, but maybe not the pronounced banding that a single LP would produce.

It's a long wave trough with embedded areas of increased lift and vorticity. But i think if you're going to run a proper snowstorm you'd want a more solo shortwave that can throw more lift and precipitation northwest of the surface low. 

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's a long wave trough with embedded areas of increased lift and vorticity. But i think if you're going to run a proper snowstorm you'd want a more solo shortwave that can throw more lift and precipitation northwest of the surface low. 

Like the blizzard that hit Newfoundland a couple of weeks ago?  What was the lowest pressure in that cyclone?

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