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Major Winter Storm 2/6-2/7 OBS


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21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah, the updated clown map this morning shows 6" but P&C has 2"-4" lol

I think CNY is in a good spot personally.. Plenty of evidence of a more easterly track with the heaviest snow from 81 east... Even the father west tracks of the Nam products nail this area..

I think 6-10" for most of CNY is a reasonable call. Banding areas probably 12-15". Where it taints 4-8".  There's good model consensus. Not sure what that AFD was talking about regarding that.

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

EPS. goes to show you gradient patterns can sometimes work

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_2.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_2.png

It's all about the HP in Canada...if it sits in place we score...but like so many times this year they retreated to the east or north leaving us with modified air and rain. Funny thing is looking out a week or so and can see a very similar opportunity.

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So I have two choices. 
 

1). Don’t drink at my client dinner event in NJ tonight and drive home from roughly 9-1AM after a 5 hour energy (keep in mind I get up to workout at 4:30 and did so this AM)
 

2). Grab a few hours of sleep and set the alarm to drive home to Skaneateles between say 3-7AM. 
 

what say ye my fellow trusted weather brethren?

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Kuchera occasionally works well in perfect deformation scenarios under or near the 700 mb low in well developed rapidly deepening systems. It wont work where much of your lift is waa/isentropic upglide in the 850-700 zone like it is over northern ny. It seems like map/ratio deficiencies have to be pointed out every storm.

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7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Kuchera occasionally works well in perfect deformation scenarios under or near the 700 mb low in well developed rapidly deepening systems. It wont work where much of your lift is waa/isentropic upglide in the 850-700 zone like it is over northern ny. It seems like map/ratio deficiencies have to be pointed out every storm.

No offense but the second round is not at all WAA or isentropic upglide. This first batch was. In fact we have some solid deformation banding in this set up as mentioned by Burlington NWS. I will not be using the 10:1 but will be using Kuchera for this rapidly deepening system . NWS Burlington As of 325 AM EST Thursday...The aforementioned frontogenetic band will be slow to slide eastward on Friday as the area of deformation remains parallel to the mean flow. This means that the area of heaviest snowfall will be slow to move eastward. Snowfall will quickly pile up across northern New York and northern Vermont from late morning through mid afternoon with the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis continuing to strengthen through the early afternoon hours. What`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis which has been shown in the past to produce some of our stronger snowfall rates. When you couple this lift with an anomalously moist air mass (modified Gulf of Mexico air), you get the making for a rather impressive snow event. Snow ratios initially will be close to 10:1 but as we begin to bleed in some arctic air, we will see snow ratios approach 15:1 Friday afternoon.

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Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

No offense but the second round is not at all WAA or isentropic upglide. This first batch was. In fact we have some solid deformation banding in this set up as mentioned by Burlington NWS. I will not be using the 10:1 but will be using Kuchera for this rapidly deepening system . NWS Burlington What`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis which has been shown in the past to produce some of our stronger snowfall rates. When you couple this lift with an anomalously moist air mass (modified Gulf of Mexico air), you get the making for a rather impressive snow event. Snow ratios initially will be close to 10:1 but as we begin to bleed in some arctic air, we will see snow ratios approach 15:1 Friday afternoon.

Look at the ratios that the kuchera map is showing. It's like 20:1 up there man...

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-total_snow_10to1-1228000.png

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Each run comes in warmer. Believe the trends. The taint line is always further NW by 30-40 miles. Once temps crash we all see some backend. 
The track was great. Yesterday. I’m worried the track is too far NW for a lot of us now.We will see. It’s a fun one to track. Aged me 5 years. Lol

Why are you worried in Rochester?  There was always going to be taint tonight before the temperature crash.  6Z models are still showing the heaviest snow just to my East.  If anything last night’s event was an over achiever. I got 4 inches when the forecast was 1-3.

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Just now, CNY_WX said:

Why are you worried in Rochester?  There was always going to be taint tonight before the temperature crash.  6Z models are still showing the heaviest snow just to my East.  If anything last night’s event was an over achiever. I got 4 inches when the forecast was 1-3.

I’m in adk

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