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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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30 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm at 47" on the season with about 70% coverage in the yard averaging 2-4" deep.  The cutoff S of RT 2 has been astounding this year.  I drove to E MA and back today and E or S of Gardner there is almost no snow.

You have run away and hidden from me at 38".

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On 2/17/2020 at 10:29 PM, Fozz said:

Wow... thanks so much for the very detailed response. So it seems that snowfall is near normal (I'm assuming this is for Waterbury), while temps have been warm (as with the entire eastern US) and snowpack is slightly below normal. That tells me that the ski season hasn't been so bad around Stowe, especially after that storm around 2/7/2020 (with the full moon shining over the fresh deep snow, the following weekend really was the perfect time to be up there).

Right, my data are from the Waterbury area, more specifically along the Waterbury/Bolton line to the west of town along the spine of the Greens.  Because of that location, our site does a decent job of mirroring what goes on at some of the local resorts like Stowe.  The plot of the snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake gives a good sense for how the season has gone.  That stretch of below average depths played out sort of how you’d expect – conditions were perhaps a bit below average, but that’s really not all that bad around here.  Hitting that storm (Winter Storm Kade) earlier this month was a good time to be around here though – it was a nice shot of snow that actually got the snow depths up near average as you can see on the plot.

19FEB20A.jpg

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7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm at 47" on the season with about 70% coverage in the yard averaging 2-4" deep.  The cutoff S of RT 2 has been astounding this year.  I drove to E MA and back today and E or S of Gardner there is almost no snow.

yeah I think you average 60-80 ish? Only a couple decent snowfalls from average

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9 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah I think northern Maine, northern New Brunswick, and eastern Newfoundland are the only places with significant positive snowfall anomalies in eastern North America lol. 

In fact only 53% of our Meteorological WInter snowfall has fallen this winter compared to the measly 63% from last season  as far as Dec to Feb is concerned, though there is ankle room for growth which might edge up the numbers for this season.  The fundamental difference between the two seasons for my geographic location is that the average temperature despite the firehouse Pacific last season landed on the cold side of normal, while under the Strong Positive Arctic Oscillation the temperature are currently and will likely end up on the very mild side.  The  winter of 18-19 ended with 98% of snowfall though in March those numbers bought it above average overall which I do not think we see an epic March anywhere as many are hoping.

Here are the numbers:  Greenwood, NS (based in cm) 

Year                                 Dec                Jan                 Feb                Total           Percentage                

19-20 21.4 45.6 34.9 101.9 52.3907455012853

 

18-19 28 47 48.2 123.2 63.3419023136247

 

17-18 58.2 108.7 23.2 190.1 97.7377892030849

Average                                                                                             194.5

 

                                                                                         

           
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51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Actually last night’s ensembles were the best they’ve looked since December. Not saying I believe them , but there’s no denying winter at least has a chance starting next Thursday. I think you live south of NYC, so maybe there they look bad 

For when ?

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With that said, of note is the coastal low which evolves from the coastal mid-Atlantic northward towards coastal New England late Wed nite into Thurs. Prior runs of the ECMWF were hinting at this period being one to watch for coastal low pressure, and now the GFS indicates an approximately similar solution. Uncertainty`s large in this period with complex interaction of shortwaves aloft heavily influencing what ultimately transpires, but an interior wintry event around Thursday is a possible outcome and is something to watch in the coming days.

 

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