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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No not necessarily. I look at it and go...”eh.” Last year we got a storm in a meh pattern early March, so it happens. But March 2018 ain’t walking through that door. No -NAO. 

I will keep peeking now and then but won’t get heavily invested.  On the bright side there is more time to do other stuff. 

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39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is still the best ankle breaker I’ve ever seen. Get chills watching and remembering that game. The Pitt player falling down is someone in Southbury.

 

Lol.  Yeah that dude was way out his league against Kemba.  I think he is now pan handling outside of Madison Square Garden.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Still looking toward the end of the month for a possible event.  Long ways to go though. 

Might actually help those who've developed a kind of ...'codependency' on whether they get to experience the gestation spectrum of weather events in the model cinema, all the way to go time, who turn into smoldering trolls if that process is polluted in anyway ( such as ...oh, reality ) eh hm, to rephrase your missive as:

"still looking toward the end of the month for a possible improved pattern that could plausibly offer an event(s).  Long ways to go though."

The overnight operational model runs were bad, period. For several cycles immediately prior, they seemed to be just on the temporal boundary in the extended where they might be detecting a paradigm shift in the general circulation - necessary to set the table. In a sense, we're trying to set the dining hall, so that we can set then set the table. The tele's has some hints of support. And, then there were some seasonality arguments adding conceptually ... But these 00z guidance regressed and lost that homage - it could be par for the course in a season that has shown exceptionally bad late mid and extended range scoring ( relative ).  Maybe that is all this is, but we are back to the previous look by increasing the isohypses ( geopotential lines ) count between the lower latitudes and mid/upper latitudes over our side of the hemisphere ( probably everywhere for that matter..).  In short, sped back up...

Yeah I don't know this for certain and it will surely get cackling rubes making fun, but it seems the +AO relaxes, but the HC expansion issues are still in play, so yeah..we get some relaxation but the flow still ends up f'ed up. I start to wonder if we're just gonna have to deal with this as part of CC more and more in the future seasons; and I don't mean to ignite a ...shall we say, 'spirited debate' - it's a one sentence reality check that I believe is more real than apprehension chooses to accept.

Either way whatever this winter does, July is still coming.  That means, everything gets destroyed of lieu of the new season; more importantly, there has to be a progression of events leading to that deconstruction, and common wisdom goes ... this crazy velocity saturation, which at more times than not has become a kind of base-line destructive interference, is going to have to break-down.  My contention ...beyond when, is what - usually when fast flows break down there is a tendency to reverse and go blocking ... I see that as plausibility as we aged this month and flip the script into March climo. If the AO tendency does neutralize on time of that climo it would probably be in March.  

There have been big Marches in the past.  Though those years probably bore no resemblance to this one in terms of flow characteristics ( whereby the global indices only be numerical, 'hide' those tenors and are thus used wrongly as guides ...), there is still some value in the notion that it can snow prodigiously - it's just gets more and more difficult for the downtrodden to be objective.  

As an afterthought ... it seems we're having trouble more in the middling -scaled cyclonic organization in this stream-bi-passing quasi sheared high velocity atmosphere, but are getting more 'hyper-bombs' ... just a matter of whether they're in NF or UK ...or gosh forbid along the EC. It's takes more precision to time phasing in fast flow, so by definition ... rarer. But when it clicks, look out!

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We haven’t even figured out what city to put in the dining hall, never mind setting it up...   then we need to find a band, hire a photographer etc.  

Yeah time is ticking. It gets harder and harder to expect anything to pop. The Hadley Cell will keep flexing its muscles and we will ride the warm and boring train for a while

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Might actually help those who've developed a kind of ...'codependency' on whether they get to experience the gestation spectrum of weather events in the model cinema, all the way to go time, who turn into smoldering trolls if that process is polluted in anyway ( such as ...oh, reality ) eh hm, to rephrase your missive as:

"still looking toward the end of the month for a possible improved pattern that could plausibly offer an event(s).  Long ways to go though."

The overnight operational model runs were bad, period. For several cycles immediately prior, they seemed to be just on the temporal boundary in the extended where they might be detecting a paradigm shift in the general circulation - necessary to set the table. In a sense, we're trying to set the dining hall, so that we can set then set the table. The tele's has some hints of support. And, then there were some seasonality arguments adding conceptually ... But these 00z guidance regressed and lost that homage - it could be par for the course in a season that has shown exceptionally bad late mid and extended range scoring ( relative ).  Maybe that is all this is, but we are back to the previous look by increasing the isohypses ( geopotential lines ) count between the lower latitudes and mid/upper latitudes over our side of the hemisphere ( probably everywhere for that matter..).  In short, sped back up...

Yeah I don't know this for certain and it will surely get cackling rubes making fun, but it seems the +AO relaxes, but the HC expansion issues are still in play, so yeah..we get some relaxation but the flow still ends up f'ed up. I start to wonder if we're just gonna have to deal with this as part of CC more and more in the future seasons; and I don't mean to ignite a ...shall we say, 'spirited debate' - it's a one sentence reality check that I believe is more real than apprehension chooses to accept.

Either way whatever this winter does, July is still coming.  That means, everything gets destroyed of lieu of the new season; more importantly, there has to be a progression of events leading to that deconstruction, and common wisdom goes ... this crazy velocity saturation, which at more times than not has become a kind of base-line destructive interference, is going to have to break-down.  My contention ...beyond when, is what - usually when fast flows break down there is a tendency to reverse and go blocking ... I see that as plausibility as we aged this month and flip the script into March climo. If the AO tendency does neutralize on time of that climo it would probably be in March.  

There have been big Marches in the past.  Though those years probably bore no resemblance to this one in terms of flow characteristics ( whereby the global indices only be numerical, 'hide' those tenors and are thus used wrongly as guides ...), there is still some value in the notion that it can snow prodigiously - it's just gets more and more difficult for the downtrodden to be objective.  

As an afterthought ... it seems we're having trouble more in the middling -scaled cyclonic organization in this stream-bi-passing quasi sheared high velocity atmosphere, but are getting more 'hyper-bombs' ... just a matter of whether they're in NF or UK ...or gosh forbid along the EC. It's takes more precision to time phasing in fast flow, so by definition ... rarer. But when it clicks, look out!

So you’re saying there’s a Chance....After a “War and Peace”  novel write up? 

 

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I like Tips posts, especially in the context of today’s text and abbreviate culture.  We have collective cultural ADHD.  The thought of having to actually sit and think and read and think more to make sense of something seems to be a shrinking skill. Damn I sound old.  But weather patterns are complicated and can’t always be reduced to a tweet.  We Should be greatful for the skilled posters who are willing to take the time to really dissect something, and Tip is not the only one.

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11 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

We haven't gone to NH for a number of years because of the insane amount of the fish and game cops. It gets ridiculous when you get stopped several times a day for registration checks etc. Its maddening after a while!! No such issue in VT and Maine 

I don’t know about that. I have ridden close to 20k miles all over the state and I’ve seen them less than 10 times. I’ve been stopped once, and that was a legit stop, I was going way too fast. no ticket though. 

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11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I like Tips posts, especially in the context of today’s text and abbreviate culture.  We have collective cultural ADHD.  The thought of having to actually sit and think and read and think more to make sense of something seems to be a shrinking skill. Damn I sound old.  But weather patterns are complicated and can’t always be reduced to a tweet.  We Should be greatful for the skilled posters who are willing to take the time to really dissect something, and Tip is not the only one.

Couldn't agree anymore here...people are willing to wait hours in line for food or shopping, but when it comes to reading something forget it. Same goes to forecasting...constructing an excellent forecast requires a great deal of time and detail. Forecasters who spend the time to look over all variables and use knowledge to determine "what makes the most sense" are going to be more accurate than those who don't. Forecasting now is almost becoming a joke b/c it's just rip and read off a few products and go from there. 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Couldn't agree anymore here...people are willing to wait hours in line for food or shopping, but when it comes to reading something forget it. Same goes to forecasting...constructing an excellent forecast requires a great deal of time and detail. Forecasters who spend the time to look over all variables and use knowledge to determine "what makes the most sense" are going to be more accurate than those who don't. Forecasting now is almost becoming a joke b/c it's just rip and read off a few products and go from there. 

:weenie: 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

One of these days when I have time I'm going to go on a nice ranting blog post about this and snow maps. Perhaps I'll do that this upcoming Sunday. 

You do it all the time already. We get it. You hate social media and snow maps while having a problematic compulsive behavior towards any hint of convection, globally. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You do it all the time already. We get it. You hate social media and snow maps while having a problematic compulsive behavior towards any hint of convection, globally. 

Only part of this statement is fully accurate...though the jest of it is true.

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